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Last update: 2026-04-10

Time Series

Title	Date	Abstract	Comment
Conformal Prediction with Time-Series Data via Sequential Conformalized Density Regions	2026-04-08	Show We propose a new conformal prediction method for time-series data with a guaranteed asymptotic conditional coverage rate, Sequential Conformalized Density Regions (SCDR), which is flexible enough to produce both prediction intervals and disconnected prediction sets, signifying the emergence of bifurcations. Our approach uses existing estimated conditional highest density predictive regions to form initial predictive regions. We then use a quantile random forest conformal adjustment to provide guaranteed coverage while adaptively changing to take the non-exchangeable nature of time-series data into account. We show that the proposed method achieves the guaranteed coverage rate asymptotically under certain regularity conditions. In particular, the method is doubly robust -- it works if the predictive density model is correctly specified and/or if the scores follow a nonlinear autoregressive model with the correct order specified. Simulations reveal that the proposed method outperforms existing methods in terms of empirical coverage rates and set sizes. We illustrate the method using two real datasets, the Old Faithful geyser dataset and the Australian electricity usage dataset. Prediction sets formed using SCDR for the geyser eruption durations include both single intervals and unions of two intervals, whereas existing methods produce wider, less informative, single-interval prediction sets.
Amortized Filtering and Smoothing with Conditional Normalizing Flows	2026-04-08	Show Bayesian filtering and smoothing for high-dimensional nonlinear dynamical systems are fundamental yet challenging problems in many areas of science and engineering. In this work, we propose AFSF, a unified amortized framework for filtering and smoothing with conditional normalizing flows. The core idea is to encode each observation history into a fixed-dimensional summary statistic and use this shared representation to learn both a forward flow for the filtering distribution and a backward flow for the backward transition kernel. Specifically, a recurrent encoder maps each observation history to a fixed-dimensional summary statistic whose dimension does not depend on the length of the time series. Conditioned on this shared summary statistic, the forward flow approximates the filtering distribution, while the backward flow approximates the backward transition kernel. The smoothing distribution over an entire trajectory is then recovered by combining the terminal filtering distribution with the learned backward flow through the standard backward recursion. By learning the underlying temporal evolution structure, AFSF also supports extrapolation beyond the training horizon. Moreover, by coupling the two flows through shared summary statistics, AFSF induces an implicit regularization across latent state trajectories and improves trajectory-level smoothing. In addition, we develop a flow-based particle filtering variant that provides an alternative filtering procedure and enables ESS-based diagnostics when explicit model factors are available. Numerical experiments demonstrate that AFSF provides accurate approximations of both filtering distributions and smoothing paths.	43 pages
SBBTS: A Unified Schrödinger-Bass Framework for Synthetic Financial Time Series	2026-04-08	Show We study the problem of generating synthetic time series that reproduce both marginal distributions and temporal dynamics, a central challenge in financial machine learning. Existing approaches typically fail to jointly model drift and stochastic volatility, as diffusion-based methods fix the volatility while martingale transport models ignore drift. We introduce the Schrödinger-Bass Bridge for Time Series (SBBTS), a unified framework that extends the Schrödinger-Bass formulation to multi-step time series. The method constructs a diffusion process that jointly calibrates drift and volatility and admits a tractable decomposition into conditional transport problems, enabling efficient learning. Numerical experiments on the Heston model demonstrate that SBBTS accurately recovers stochastic volatility and correlation parameters that prior SchrödingerBridge methods fail to capture. Applied to S&P 500 data, SBBTS-generated synthetic time series consistently improve downstream forecasting performance when used for data augmentation, yielding higher classification accuracy and Sharpe ratio compared to real-data-only training. These results show that SBBTS provides a practical and effective framework for realistic time series generation and data augmentation in financial applications.
Private Federated Learning for High-dimensional Time Series	2026-04-08	Show In the era of big data, leveraging information from multiple clients while preserving data privacy has emerged as a critical challenge in modern statistical modeling and forecasting. This paper introduces a privacy-preserving federated learning framework for high-dimensional vector autoregressive models, where each client's dynamics are characterized by a common low-rank structure augmented with sparse client-specific deviations. We develop a two-stage estimation procedure that integrates differentially private representation learning for the shared component with local personalization for client-specific adjustments, enabling effective information pooling under selective privacy constraints. Non-asymptotic error bounds are established for both the single-client and federated estimators to characterize the inherent privacy-utility trade-off, and consistency of a ridge-type rank selection criterion is proved. Simulation studies demonstrate that federation substantially improves estimation accuracy when local sample sizes are limited. Two empirical applications to analyzing electricity-economy linkages across U.S. states and conducting multi-task macroeconomic forecasting across countries, highlight the superior predictive accuracy of the proposed method over existing single-client benchmarks.
Controller Design for Structured State-space Models via Contraction Theory	2026-04-08	Show This paper presents an indirect data-driven output feedback controller synthesis for nonlinear systems, leveraging Structured State-space Models (SSMs) as surrogate models. SSMs have emerged as a compelling alternative in modelling time-series data and dynamical systems. They can capture long-term dependencies while maintaining linear computational complexity with respect to the sequence length, in comparison to the quadratic complexity of Transformer-based architectures. The contributions of this work are threefold. We provide the first analysis of controllability and observability of SSMs, which leads to scalable control design via Linear Matrix Inequalities (LMIs) that leverage contraction theory. Moreover, a separation principle for SSMs is established, enabling the independent design of observers and state-feedback controllers while preserving the exponential stability of the closed-loop system. The effectiveness of the proposed framework is demonstrated through a numerical example, showcasing nonlinear system identification and the synthesis of an output feedback controller.	The f... The first and second authors contributed equally. The paper has been accepted in 24th European Control Conference (ECC) in Reykjavik, Iceland, 2026
Learning to Query History: Nonstationary Classification via Learned Retrieval	2026-04-08	Show Nonstationarity is ubiquitous in practical classification settings, leading deployed models to perform poorly even when they generalize well to holdout sets available at training time. We address this by reframing nonstationary classification as time series prediction: rather than predicting from the current input alone, we condition the classifier on a sequence of historical labeled examples that extends beyond the training cutoff. To scale to large sequences, we introduce a learned discrete retrieval mechanism that samples relevant historical examples via input-dependent queries, trained end-to-end with the classifier using a score-based gradient estimator. This enables the full corpus of historical data to remain on an arbitrary filesystem during training and deployment. Experiments on synthetic benchmarks and Amazon Reviews '23 (electronics category) show improved robustness to distribution shift compared to standard classifiers, with VRAM scaling predictably as the length of the historical data sequence increases.	Accep... Accepted to ICLR 2026 Workshop on Time Series in the Age of Large Models (TSALM). 12 pages, 6 figures
Time Series Gaussian Chain Graph Models	2026-04-08	Show Time series graphical models have recently received considerable attention for characterizing (conditional) dependence structures in multivariate time series. In many applications, the multivariate series exhibit variable-partitioned blockwise dependence, with distinct patterns within and across blocks. In this paper, we introduce a new class of time series Gaussian chain graph models that represent contemporaneous and lagged causal relations via directed edges across blocks, while capturing within-block conditional dependencies through undirected edges. In the frequency domain, this formulation induces a cross-frequency shared group sparse plus group low-rank decomposition of the inverse spectral density matrices, which we exploit to establish identifiability of the time series chain graph structure. Building on this, we then propose a three-stage learning procedure for estimating the undirected and directed edge sets, which involves optimizing a regularized Whittle likelihood with a group lasso penalty to encourage group sparsity and a novel tensor-unfolding nuclear norm penalty to enforce group low-rank structure. We investigate the asymptotic properties of the proposed method, ensuring its consistency for exact recovery of the chain graph structure. The superior empirical performance of the proposed method is demonstrated through both extensive simulation studies and an application to U.S. macroeconomic data that highlights key monetary policy transmission mechanisms.
Statistical Analysis of the Reliability of Data Collected with Wireless Electrocardiograms Outside Clinical Settings	2026-04-08	Show Cost-effective wireless electrocardiograms (ECGs) enable long-term and scalable monitoring of cardiac patients in their home and work environments. Because they offer greater freedom of movement, they are also suitable for investigating the relationship between cardiac workload and underlying physical exertion. However, this requires that the quality of the generated data meets the standards of clinical devices. The aim of this study is to examine this closely. We therefore analyze data from 54 healthy subjects who performed five physical activities using wireless ECGs outside of clinical settings and without medical supervision. The results are compared with clinically collected data from standard 12-lead ECGs (2493 subjects) and Holter ECGs (29 subjects), with particular attention to the RR interval time series (tachogram) and heart rate variability (HRV). Our study shows significant statistical agreement between the different datasets. We calculated the 95% confidence intervals for the mean RR interval and HRV assuming that (1) the statistics of the 12-lead ECGs could serve as reliable reference, and (2) the statistics of the 12-lead ECGs cannot be taken as reliable reference. The p-values for both conditions (for the RR interval: 0.23 and 0.26 respectively; for HRV: 0.10 and 0.11 respectively) suggest that there is insufficient evidence to reject the hypothesis that significant statistical agreement exists between the different datasets.
Explainable AI to Improve Machine Learning Reliability for Industrial Cyber-Physical Systems	2026-04-08	Show Industrial Cyber-Physical Systems (CPS) are sensitive infrastructure from both safety and economics perspectives, making their reliability critically important. Machine Learning (ML), specifically deep learning, is increasingly integrated in industrial CPS, but the inherent complexity of ML models results in non-transparent operation. Rigorous evaluation is needed to prevent models from exhibiting unexpected behaviour on future, unseen data. Explainable AI (XAI) can be used to uncover model reasoning, allowing a more extensive analysis of behaviour. We apply XAI to improve predictive performance of ML models intended for an industrial CPS use-case. We analyse the effects of components from time-series data decomposition on model predictions using SHAP values. Through this method, we observe evidence on the lack of sufficient contextual information during model training. By increasing the window size of data instances, informed by the XAI findings for this use-case, we are able to improve model performance.
Interventional Time Series Priors for Causal Foundation Models	2026-04-08	Show Prior-data fitted networks (PFNs) have emerged as powerful foundation models for tabular causal inference, yet their extension to time series remains limited by the absence of synthetic data generators that provide interventional targets. Existing time series benchmarks generate observational data with ground-truth causal graphs but lack the interventional data required for training causal foundation models. To address this, we propose \textbf{CausalTimePrior}, a principled framework for generating synthetic temporal structural causal models (TSCMs) with paired observational and interventional time series. Our prior supports configurable causal graph structures, nonlinear autoregressive mechanisms, regime-switching dynamics, and multiple intervention types (hard, soft, time-varying). We demonstrate that PFNs trained on CausalTimePrior can perform in-context causal effect estimation on held-out TSCMs, establishing a pathway toward foundation models for time series causal inference.	ICLR ... ICLR 2026 1st Workshop on Time Series in the Age of Large Models (TSALM)
Bi-level Heterogeneous Learning for Time Series Foundation Models: A Federated Learning Approach	2026-04-08	Show Heterogeneity in time series data is more pronounced than in vision or language, as temporal dynamics vary substantially across domains and tasks. Existing efforts on training time series foundation models (TSFMs) from scratch are often trained with mixed-batch strategies that merge large-scale datasets, which can cause gradient conflicts and degrade representation quality. To address this, we propose a fine-grained learning method that distills invariant knowledge from heterogeneous series while reducing cross-domain interference. We characterize heterogeneity at two levels: inter-domain and intra-domain. To tackle this bi-level heterogeneity, we design a federated learning method that mitigates intra-domain conflicts by enforcing domain-invariant and semantically consistent representations through local regularization, and addresses inter-domain discrepancies by enhancing cross-domain collaboration via domain-aware aggregation. Experiments across diverse benchmarks show that TSFMs trained with our method consistently outperform both centralized and federated TSFM baselines in point and probabilistic forecasting, while also achieving competitive zero-shot performance at scale, offering a flexible pathway for training TSFMs from scratch in heterogeneous environments.	31 pages
Daily and Weekly Periodicity in Large Language Model Performance and Its Implications for Research	2026-04-08	Show Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used in research as both tools and objects of study. Much of this work assumes that LLM performance under fixed conditions (identical model snapshot, hyperparameters, and prompt) is time-invariant, meaning that average output quality remains stable over time; otherwise, reliability and reproducibility would be compromised. To test the assumption of time invariance, we conducted a longitudinal study of GPT-4o's average performance under fixed conditions. The LLM was queried to solve the same physics task ten times every three hours over approximately three months. Spectral (Fourier) analysis of the resulting time series revealed substantial periodic variability, accounting for about 20% of total variance. The observed periodic patterns are consistent with interacting daily and weekly rhythms. These findings challenge the assumption of time invariance and carry important implications for research involving LLMs.	The S... The Supplementary Information can be found in the OSF repository cited in the Data Availability Statement
MR-ImagenTime: Multi-Resolution Time Series Generation through Dual Image Representations	2026-04-08	Show Time series forecasting is vital across many domains, yet existing models struggle with fixed-length inputs and inadequate multi-scale modeling. We propose MR-CDM, a framework combining hierarchical multi-resolution trend decomposition, an adaptive embedding mechanism for variable-length inputs, and a multi-scale conditional diffusion process. Evaluations on four real-world datasets demonstrate that MR-CDM significantly outperforms state-of-the-art baselines (e.g., CSDI, Informer), reducing MAE and RMSE by approximately 6-10 to a certain degree.
Bridging Natural Language and Microgrid Dynamics: A Context-Aware Simulator and Dataset	2026-04-08	Show Addressing the critical need for intelligent, context-aware energy management in renewable systems, we introduce the OpenCEM Simulator and Dataset: the first open-source digital twin explicitly designed to integrate rich, unstructured contextual information with quantitative renewable energy dynamics. Traditional energy management relies heavily on numerical time series, thereby neglecting the significant predictive power embedded in human-generated context (e.g., event schedules, system logs, user intentions). OpenCEM bridges this gap by offering a unique platform comprising both a meticulously aligned, language-rich dataset from a real-world PV-and-battery microgrid installation and a modular simulator capable of natively processing this multi-modal context. The OpenCEM Simulator provides a high-fidelity environment for developing and validating novel control algorithms and prediction models, particularly those leveraging Large Language Models. We detail its component-based architecture, hybrid data-driven and physics-based modelling capabilities, and demonstrate its utility through practical examples, including context-aware load forecasting and the implementation of online optimal battery charging control strategies. By making this platform publicly available, OpenCEM aims to accelerate research into the next generation of intelligent, sustainable, and truly context-aware energy systems.
Time-Series Classification with Multivariate Statistical Dependence Features	2026-04-08	Show In this paper, we propose a novel framework for non-stationary time-series analysis that replaces conventional correlation-based statistics with direct estimation of statistical dependence in the normalized joint density of input and target signals, the cross density ratio (CDR). Unlike windowed correlation estimates, this measure is independent of sample order and robust to regime changes. The method builds on the functional maximal correlation algorithm (FMCA), which constructs a projection space by decomposing the eigenspectrum of the CDR. Multiscale features from this eigenspace are classified using a lightweight single-hidden-layer perceptron. On the TI-46 digit speech corpus, our approach outperforms hidden Markov models (HMMs) and state-of-the-art spiking neural networks, achieving higher accuracy with fewer than 10 layers and a storage footprint under 5 MB.
Matrix Profile for Anomaly Detection on Multidimensional Time Series	2026-04-07	Show The Matrix Profile (MP), a versatile tool for time series data mining, has been shown effective in time series anomaly detection (TSAD). This paper delves into the problem of anomaly detection in multidimensional time series, a common occurrence in real-world applications. For instance, in a manufacturing factory, multiple sensors installed across the site collect time-varying data for analysis. The Matrix Profile, named for its role in profiling the matrix storing pairwise distance between subsequences of univariate time series, becomes complex in multidimensional scenarios. If the input univariate time series has n subsequences, the pairwise distance matrix is a n x n matrix. In a multidimensional time series with d dimensions, the pairwise distance information must be stored in a n x n x d tensor. In this paper, we first analyze different strategies for condensing this tensor into a profile vector. We then investigate the potential of extending the MP to efficiently find k-nearest neighbors for anomaly detection. Finally, we benchmark the multidimensional MP against 19 baseline methods on 119 multidimensional TSAD datasets. The experiments covers three learning setups: unsupervised, supervised, and semi-supervised. MP is the only method that consistently delivers high performance across all setups. To ensure complete transparency and facilitate future research, our full Matrix Profile-based implementation, which includes newly added evaluations against the TSB-AD benchmark, is publicly available at: https://github.com/mcyeh/mmpad_tsb	https... https://github.com/mcyeh/mmpad_tsb
Matrix Profile for Time-Series Anomaly Detection: A Reproducible Open-Source Benchmark on TSB-AD	2026-04-07	Show Matrix Profile (MP) methods are an interpretable and scalable family of distance-based methods for time-series anomaly detection, but strong benchmark performance still depends on design choices beyond a vanilla nearest-neighbor profile. This technical report documents an open-source Matrix Profile for Anomaly Detection (MMPAD) submission to TSB-AD, a benchmark that covers both univariate and multivariate time series. The submitted system combines pre-sorted multidimensional aggregation, efficient exclusion-zone-aware k-nearest-neighbor (kNN) retrieval for repeated anomalies, and moving-average post-processing. To serve as a reproducible reference for MP-based anomaly detection on TSB-AD, we detail the released implementation, the hyperparameter settings for the univariate and multivariate tracks, and the corresponding benchmark results. We further analyze how the system performs on the aggregate leaderboard and across specific dataset characteristics.The open-source implementation is available at https://github.com/mcyeh/mmpad_tsb.	https... https://github.com/mcyeh/mmpad_tsb
MICA: Multivariate Infini Compressive Attention for Time Series Forecasting	2026-04-07	Show Multivariate forecasting with Transformers faces a core scalability challenge: modeling cross-channel dependencies via attention compounds attention's quadratic sequence complexity with quadratic channel scaling, making full cross-channel attention impractical for high-dimensional time series. We propose Multivariate Infini Compressive Attention (MICA), an architectural design to extend channel-independent Transformers to channel-dependent forecasting. By adapting efficient attention techniques from the sequence dimension to the channel dimension, MICA adds a cross-channel attention mechanism to channel-independent backbones that scales linearly with channel count and context length. We evaluate channel-independent Transformer architectures with and without MICA across multiple forecasting benchmarks. MICA reduces forecast error over its channel-independent counterparts by 5.4% on average and up to 25.4% on individual datasets, highlighting the importance of explicit cross-channel modeling. Moreover, models with MICA rank first among deep multivariate Transformer and MLP baselines. MICA models also scale more efficiently with respect to both channel count and context length than Transformer baselines that compute attention across both the temporal and channel dimensions, establishing compressive attention as a practical solution for scalable multivariate forecasting.
The $α$--regression for compositional data: a unified framework for standard, temporal and spatial regression models including compositional predictors	2026-04-07	Show The paper revisits the $α$--regression framework for compositional data. The model uses a flexible power transformation parameterized by $α$ to interpolate between raw data analysis and log--ratio methods, naturally handling zeros without imputation while allowing data--driven transformation selection. We formulate $α$--regression as a non--linear least squares problem, study its asymptotic properties, provide efficient estimation via the Levenberg--Marquardt algorithm, derive marginal effects for interpretation, and provide a visual inspection of the effect of each predictor. We further discuss robustified versions, the inclusion of natural splines, and the incorporation of compositional predictors which further facilitate the formulation of a simple time series model. The framework is extended to spatial settings through four models. a) The $α$--spatially--lagged X regression model, which incorporates spatial spillover effects via spatially--lagged covariates, with decomposition into direct and indirect effects. b) The $α$--spatial autoregressive model that allows for spatial autocorrelation. c) The geographically--weighted $α$--regression, which allows coefficients to vary spatially for capturing local relationships. d) The $α$--eigenvector spatial filtering that is computationally efficient and captures spatial dependence via the eigenvectors of the kernelized distance matrix. Applications to four real datasets illustrate that the models perform on par with or outperform existing models in the literature. The examples showcase that spatial extensions capture the dependence and improve the predictive performance. Overall, the examples provide evidence that the log--ratio methodology does not lead to the optimal results.
On Dominant Manifolds in Reservoir Computing Networks	2026-04-07	Show Understanding how training shapes the geometry of recurrent network dynamics is a central problem in time-series modeling. We study the emergence of low-dimensional dominant manifolds in the training of Reservoir Computing (RC) networks for temporal forecasting tasks. For a simplified linear and continuous-time reservoir model, we link the dimensionality and structure of the dominant modes directly to the intrinsic dimensionality and information content of the training data. In particular, for training data generated by an autonomous dynamical system, we relate the dominant modes of the trained reservoir to approximations of the Koopman eigenfunctions of the original system, illuminating an explicit connection between reservoir computing and the Dynamic Mode Decomposition algorithm. We illustrate the eigenvalue motion that generates the dominant manifolds during training in simulation, and discuss generalization to nonlinear RC via tangent dynamics and differential p-dominance.	6 pages, 3 figures
Echo State Networks for Time Series Forecasting: Hyperparameter Sweep and Benchmarking	2026-04-07	Show This paper investigates the performance of Echo State Networks (ESNs) for univariate time series forecasting using a subset of the M4 Forecasting Competition dataset. Focusing on monthly and quarterly time series, we evaluate whether a simple autoregressive ESN can serve as a competitive alternative to widely used forecasting methods. The study adopts a two-stage approach: a Parameter dataset is used to conduct an extensive hyperparameter sweep covering leakage rate, spectral radius, reservoir size, and information criteria for regularization, resulting in over four million ESN model fits; a disjoint Forecast dataset is then used for out-of-sample accuracy assessment. Forecast accuracy is measured using mean absolute scaled error (MASE) and symmetric mean absolute percentage error (sMAPE) and benchmarked against simple benchmarks like drift and seasonal naive and statistical models like autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), exponential smoothing state space (ETS), the Theta method, and TBATS (trigonometric, Box-Cox transformation, ARMA errors, trend, and seasonal components). The hyperparameter analysis reveals broadly consistent and interpretable patterns, with monthly series favoring moderately persistent reservoirs and quarterly series favoring more contractive dynamics. Across both frequencies, high leakage rates are preferred, while optimal spectral radii and reservoir sizes vary with frequency. In the out-of-sample benchmarking, the ESN performs on par with ARIMA and TBATS for monthly data and achieves the lowest mean MASE for quarterly data, while requiring lower computational cost than ARIMA and TBATS. Overall, the results demonstrate that ESNs offer a balance between forecast accuracy, robustness, and computational efficiency, positioning them as a practical option for time series forecasting.
Adversarial Robustness of Time-Series Classification for Crystal Collimator Alignment	2026-04-07	Show In this paper, we analyze and improve the adversarial robustness of a convolutional neural network (CNN) that assists crystal-collimator alignment at CERN's Large Hadron Collider (LHC) by classifying a beam-loss monitor (BLM) time series during crystal rotation. We formalize a local robustness property for this classifier under an adversarial threat model based on real-world plausibility. Building on established parameterized input-transformation patterns used for transformation- and semantic-perturbation robustness, we instantiate a preprocessing-aware wrapper for our deployed time-series pipeline: we encode time-series normalization, padding constraints, and structured perturbations as a lightweight differentiable wrapper in front of the CNN, so that existing gradient-based robustness frameworks can operate on the deployed pipeline. For formal verification, data-dependent preprocessing such as per-window z-normalization introduces nonlinear operators that require verifier-specific abstractions. We therefore focus on attack-based robustness estimates and pipeline-checked validity by benchmarking robustness with the frameworks Foolbox and ART. Adversarial fine-tuning of the resulting CNN improves robust accuracy by up to 18.6 % without degrading clean accuracy. Finally, we extend robustness on time-series data beyond single windows to sequence-level robustness for sliding-window classification, introduce adversarial sequences as counterexamples to a temporal robustness requirement over full scans, and observe attack-induced misclassifications that persist across adjacent windows.
Incident-Guided Spatiotemporal Traffic Forecasting	2026-04-07	Show Recent years have witnessed the rapid development of deep-learning-based, graph-neural-network-based forecasting methods for modern intelligent transportation systems. However, most existing work focuses exclusively on capturing spatio-temporal dependencies from historical traffic data, while overlooking the fact that suddenly occurring transportation incidents, such as traffic accidents and adverse weather, serve as external disturbances that can substantially alter temporal patterns. We argue that this issue has become a major obstacle to modeling the dynamics of traffic systems and improving prediction accuracy, but the unpredictability of incidents makes it difficult to observe patterns from historical sequences. To address these challenges, this paper proposes a novel framework named the Incident-Guided Spatiotemporal Graph Neural Network (IGSTGNN). IGSTGNN explicitly models the incident's impact through two core components: an Incident-Context Spatial Fusion (ICSF) module to capture the initial heterogeneous spatial influence, and a Temporal Incident Impact Decay (TIID) module to model the subsequent dynamic dissipation. To facilitate research on the spatio-temporal impact of incidents on traffic flow, a large-scale dataset is constructed and released, featuring incident records that are time-aligned with traffic time series. On this new benchmark, the proposed IGSTGNN framework is demonstrated to achieve state-of-the-art performance. Furthermore, the generalizability of the ICSF and TIID modules is validated by integrating them into various existing models.
Triplet Feature Fusion for Equipment Anomaly Prediction : An Open-Source Methodology Using Small Foundation Models	2026-04-07	Show Predicting equipment anomalies before they escalate into failures is a critical challenge in industrial facility management. Existing approaches rely either on hand-crafted threshold rules, which lack generalizability, or on large neural models that are impractical for on-site, air-gapped deployments. We present an industrial methodology that resolves this tension by combining open-source small foundation models into a unified 1,116-dimensional Triplet Feature Fusion pipeline. This pipeline integrates: (1) statistical features (x in $R^{28}$) derived from 90-day sensor histories, (2) time-series embeddings (y in $R^{64}$) from a LoRA-adapted IBM Granite TinyTimeMixer (TTM, 133K parameters), and (3) multilingual text embeddings (z in $R^{1024}$) extracted from Japanese equipment master records via multilingual-e5-large. The concatenated triplet h = [x; y; z] is processed by a LightGBM classifier (< 3 MB) trained to predict anomalies at 30-, 60-, and 90-day horizons. All components use permissive open-source licenses (Apache 2.0 / MIT). The inference-time pipeline runs entirely on CPU in under 2 ms, enabling edge deployment on co-located hardware without cloud dependency. On a dataset of 64 HVAC units comprising 67,045 samples, the triplet model achieves Precision = 0.992, F1 = 0.958, and ROC-AUC = 0.998 at the 30-day horizon. Crucially, it reduces the False Positive Rate from 0.6 percent (baseline) to 0.1 percent - an 83 percent reduction attributable to equipment-type conditioning via text embedding z. Cluster analysis reveals that the embeddings align time-series signatures with distinct fault archetypes, explaining how compact multilingual representations improve discrimination without explicit categorical encoding.	15 pa... 15 pages, 8 figures, 7 table
AutoSOTA: An End-to-End Automated Research System for State-of-the-Art AI Model Discovery	2026-04-07	Show Artificial intelligence research increasingly depends on prolonged cycles of reproduction, debugging, and iterative refinement to achieve State-Of-The-Art (SOTA) performance, creating a growing need for systems that can accelerate the full pipeline of empirical model optimization. In this work, we introduce AutoSOTA, an end-to-end automated research system that advances the latest SOTA models published in top-tier AI papers to reproducible and empirically improved new SOTA models. We formulate this problem through three tightly coupled stages: resource preparation and goal setting; experiment evaluation; and reflection and ideation. To tackle this problem, AutoSOTA adopts a multi-agent architecture with eight specialized agents that collaboratively ground papers to code and dependencies, initialize and repair execution environments, track long-horizon experiments, generate and schedule optimization ideas, and supervise validity to avoid spurious gains. We evaluate AutoSOTA on recent research papers collected from eight top-tier AI conferences under filters for code availability and execution cost. Across these papers, AutoSOTA achieves strong end-to-end performance in both automated replication and subsequent optimization. Specifically, it successfully discovers 105 new SOTA models that surpass the original reported methods, averaging approximately five hours per paper. Case studies spanning LLM, NLP, computer vision, time series, and optimization further show that the system can move beyond routine hyperparameter tuning to identify architectural innovation, algorithmic redesigns, and workflow-level improvements. These results suggest that end-to-end research automation can serve not only as a performance optimizer, but also as a new form of research infrastructure that reduces repetitive experimental burden and helps redirect human attention toward higher-level scientific creativity.
Channel-wise Retrieval for Multivariate Time Series Forecasting	2026-04-07	Show Multivariate time series forecasting often struggles to capture long-range dependencies due to fixed lookback windows. Retrieval-augmented forecasting addresses this by retrieving historical segments from memory, but existing approaches rely on a channel-agnostic strategy that applies the same references to all variables. This neglects inter-variable heterogeneity, where different channels exhibit distinct periodicities and spectral profiles. We propose CRAFT (Channel-wise retrieval-augmented forecasting), a novel framework that performs retrieval independently for each channel. To ensure efficiency, CRAFT adopts a two-stage pipeline: a sparse relation graph constructed in the time domain prunes irrelevant candidates, and spectral similarity in the frequency domain ranks references, emphasizing dominant periodic components while suppressing noise. Experiments on seven public benchmarks demonstrate that CRAFT outperforms state-of-the-art forecasting baselines, achieving superior accuracy with practical inference efficiency.	Accep... Accepted at ICASSP 2026 Oral
VarDrop: Enhancing Training Efficiency by Reducing Variate Redundancy in Periodic Time Series Forecasting	2026-04-07	Show Variate tokenization, which independently embeds each variate as separate tokens, has achieved remarkable improvements in multivariate time series forecasting. However, employing self-attention with variate tokens incurs a quadratic computational cost with respect to the number of variates, thus limiting its training efficiency for large-scale applications. To address this issue, we propose VarDrop, a simple yet efficient strategy that reduces the token usage by omitting redundant variate tokens during training. VarDrop adaptively excludes redundant tokens within a given batch, thereby reducing the number of tokens used for dot-product attention while preserving essential information. Specifically, we introduce k-dominant frequency hashing (k-DFH), which utilizes the ranked dominant frequencies in the frequency domain as a hash value to efficiently group variate tokens exhibiting similar periodic behaviors. Then, only representative tokens in each group are sampled through stratified sampling. By performing sparse attention with these selected tokens, the computational cost of scaled dot-product attention is significantly alleviated. Experiments conducted on public benchmark datasets demonstrate that VarDrop outperforms existing efficient baselines.	Publi... Published in AAAI 2025
Cross Spectra Break the Single-Channel Impossibility	2026-04-07	Show Lucente et al. proved that no time-irreversibility measure can detect departure from equilibrium in a scalar Gaussian time series from a linear system. We show that a second observed channel sharing the same hidden driver overcomes this impossibility: the cross-spectral block, structurally inaccessible to any single-channel measure, provides qualitatively new detectability. Under the diagonal null hypothesis, the cross-spectral detectability coefficient $\Scross$ (the leading quartic-order cross contribution) is \emph{exactly} independent of the observed timescales -- a cancellation governed solely by hidden-mode parameters -- and remains strictly positive at exact timescale coalescence, where all single-channel measures vanish. The mechanism is geometric: the cross spectrum occupies the off-diagonal subspace of the spectral matrix, orthogonal to any diagonal null and therefore invisible in any single-channel reduction. For the one-way coupled Ornstein--Uhlenbeck counterpart, the entropy production rate (EPR) satisfies $\EPRtot=α_2λ^2$ exactly; under this coupling geometry, $\Scross&gt;0$ certifies $\EPRtot&gt;0$, linking observable cross-spectral structure to full-system dissipation via $\EPRtot^{,2}\propto\Scross$. Finite-sample simulations predict a quantitative detection-threshold split testable with dual colloidal probes and multisite climate stations.
TFRBench: A Reasoning Benchmark for Evaluating Forecasting Systems	2026-04-07	Show We introduce TFRBench, the first benchmark designed to evaluate the reasoning capabilities of forecasting systems. Traditionally, time-series forecasting has been evaluated solely on numerical accuracy, treating foundation models as ``black boxes.'' Unlike existing benchmarks, TFRBench provides a protocol for evaluating the reasoning generated by forecasting systems--specifically their analysis of cross-channel dependencies, trends, and external events. To enable this, we propose a systematic multi-agent framework that utilizes an iterative verification loop to synthesize numerically grounded reasoning traces. Spanning ten datasets across five domains, our evaluation confirms that this reasoning is causally effective; useful for evaluation; and prompting LLMs with our generated traces significantly improves forecasting accuracy compared to direct numerical prediction (e.g., avg. $\sim40.2%\to56.6%)$, validating the quality of our reasoning. Conversely, benchmarking experiments reveal that off-the-shelf LLMs consistently struggle with both reasoning (lower LLM-as-a-Judge scores) and numerical forecasting, frequently failing to capture domain-specific dynamics. TFRBench thus establishes a new standard for interpretable, reasoning-based evaluation in time-series forecasting. Our benchmark is available at: https://tfrbench.github.io
Cross-Machine Anomaly Detection Leveraging Pre-trained Time-series Model	2026-04-07	Show Achieving resilient and high-quality manufacturing requires reliable data-driven anomaly detection methods that are capable of addressing differences in behaviors among different individual machines which are nominally the same and are executing the same processes. To address the problem of detecting anomalies in a machine using sensory data gathered from different individual machines executing the same procedure, this paper proposes a cross-machine time-series anomaly detection framework that integrates a domain-invariant feature extractor with an unsupervised anomaly detection module. Leveraging the pre-trained foundation model MOMENT, the extractor employs Random Forest Classifiers to disentangle embeddings into machine-related and condition-related features, with the latter serving as representations which are invariant to differences between individual machines. These refined features enable the downstream anomaly detectors to generalize effectively to unseen target machines. Experiments on an industrial dataset collected from three different machines performing nominally the same operation demonstrate that the proposed approach outperforms both the raw-signal-based and MOMENT-embedding feature baselines, confirming its effectiveness in enhancing cross-machine generalization.	20 pa... 20 pages, 5 figures, under review at a journal
Extending Tabular Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Models for Time-Series Data Generation	2026-04-06	Show Diffusion models are increasingly being utilised to create synthetic tabular and time series data for privacy-preserving augmentation. Tabular Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Models (TabDDPM) generate high-quality synthetic data from heterogeneous tabular datasets but assume independence between samples, limiting their applicability to time-series domains where temporal dependencies are critical. To address this, we propose a temporal extension of TabDDPM, introducing sequence awareness through the use of lightweight temporal adapters and context-aware embedding modules. By reformulating sensor data into windowed sequences and explicitly modeling temporal context via timestep embeddings, conditional activity labels, and observed/missing masks, our approach enables the generation of temporally coherent synthetic sequences. Compared to baseline and interpolation techniques, validation using bigram transition matrices and autocorrelation analysis shows enhanced temporal realism, diversity, and coherence. On the WISDM accelerometer dataset, the suggested system produces synthetic time-series that closely resemble real world sensor patterns and achieves comparable classification performance (macro F1-score 0.64, accuracy 0.71). This is especially advantageous for minority class representation and preserving statistical alignment with real distributions. These developments demonstrate that diffusion based models provide effective and adaptable solutions for sequential data synthesis when they are equipped for temporal reasoning. Future work will explore scaling to longer sequences and integrating stronger temporal architectures.	16 pa... 16 pages, 10 figures, 2 tables
EAGLE: Edge-Aware Graph Learning for Proactive Delivery Delay Prediction in Smart Logistics Networks	2026-04-06	Show Modern logistics networks generate rich operational data streams at every warehouse node and transportation lane -- from order timestamps and routing records to shipping manifests -- yet predicting delivery delays remains predominantly reactive. Existing predictive approaches typically treat this problem either as a tabular classification task, ignoring network topology, or as a time-series anomaly detection task, overlooking the spatial dependencies of the supply chain graph. To bridge this gap, we propose a hybrid deep learning framework for proactive supply chain risk management. The proposed method jointly models temporal order-flow dynamics via a lightweight Transformer patch encoder and inter-hub relational dependencies through an Edge-Aware Graph Attention Network (E-GAT), optimized via a multi-task learning objective. Evaluated on the real-world DataCo Smart Supply Chain dataset, our framework achieves consistent improvements over baseline methods, yielding an F1-score of 0.8762 and an AUC-ROC of 0.9773. Across four independent random seeds, the framework exhibits a cross-seed F1 standard deviation of only 0.0089 -- a 3.8 times improvement over the best ablated variant -- achieving the strongest balance of predictive accuracy and training stability among all evaluated models.
TS-Agent: Understanding and Reasoning Over Raw Time Series via Iterative Insight Gathering	2026-04-06	Show Large language models (LLMs) exhibit strong symbolic and compositional reasoning, yet they struggle with time series question answering as the data is typically transformed into an LLM-compatible modality, e.g., serialized text, plotted images, or compressed time series embeddings. Such conversions impose representation bottlenecks, often require cross-modal alignment or finetuning, and can exacerbate hallucination and knowledge leakage. To address these limitations, we propose TS-Agent, an agentic, tool-grounded framework that uses LLMs strictly for iterative evidence-based reasoning, while delegating statistical and structural extraction to time series analytical tools operating on raw sequences. Our framework solves time series tasks through an evidence-driven agentic process: (1) it alternates between thinking, tool execution, and observation in a ReAct-style loop, (2) records intermediate results in an explicit evidence log and corrects the reasoning trace via a self-refinement critic, and (3) enforces a final answer-verification step to prevent hallucinations and leakage. Across four benchmarks spanning time series understanding and reasoning, TS-Agent matches or exceeds strong text-based, vision-based, and time-series language model baselines, with the largest gains on reasoning tasks where multimodal LLMs are prone to hallucination and knowledge leakage in zero-shot settings.	NeurI... NeurIPS 2025 Workshop on Foundations of Reasoning in Language Models
Ratio of Quantiles Indicates Burstiness with Fewer False Negatives than the Conventional Burstiness Parameter	2026-04-06	Show Complexity researchers view burstiness--fluctuating levels of activity--as evidence of hidden interactions within the system generating the activity signal. Yet, current burstiness metrics miss evidence of burstiness in some moderately bursty distributions and under moderate sampling conditions. The canonical Burstiness Parameter (BP) compares distributions of timing statistics to the exponential distribution, representing the timing of independent random events, but it provides false negatives for some parameter ranges of power laws, with and without cut-offs. We introduce a metric that maintains BP's measurement approach but reduces false negatives: the Burstiness Tail-based Index (BTI). Based on ratios of differences in quantiles, BTI correctly classifies bursty distributions over certain parameter ranges misclassified by BP. Additionally, we find BTI to be more robust than BP in the presence of limited sample sizes and short observation windows, using simulated samples drawn from distributions correctly classified by BP in their analytical form. As a case study, we revisit an analysis of human activity data and find that the choice of BTI over BP influences interpretations of the timescales of burstiness in the dataset. Given these analytical, simulated, and empirical results, we argue for BTI's practical advantage over BP in assessing burstiness in real-world temporal signals for complexity research and time series modeling.	41 pa... 41 pages, 14 figures; for associated code, see https://github.com/jstadlan-compass/burstiness-tail-index
Non-monotonic causal discovery with Kolmogorov-Arnold Fuzzy Cognitive Maps	2026-04-06	Show Fuzzy Cognitive Maps constitute a neuro-symbolic paradigm for modeling complex dynamic systems, widely adopted for their inherent interpretability and recurrent inference capabilities. However, the standard FCM formulation, characterized by scalar synaptic weights and monotonic activation functions, is fundamentally constrained in modeling non-monotonic causal dependencies, thereby limiting its efficacy in systems governed by saturation effects or periodic dynamics. To overcome this topological restriction, this research proposes the Kolmogorov-Arnold Fuzzy Cognitive Map (KA-FCM), a novel architecture that redefines the causal transmission mechanism. Drawing upon the Kolmogorov-Arnold representation theorem, static scalar weights are replaced with learnable, univariate B-spline functions located on the model edges. This fundamental modification shifts the non-linearity from the nodes' aggregation phase directly to the causal influence phase. This modification allows for the modeling of arbitrary, non-monotonic causal relationships without increasing the graph density or introducing hidden layers. The proposed architecture is validated against both baselines (standard FCM trained with Particle Swarm Optimization) and universal black-box approximators (Multi-Layer Perceptron) across three distinct domains: non-monotonic inference (Yerkes-Dodson law), symbolic regression, and chaotic time-series forecasting. Experimental results demonstrate that KA-FCMs significantly outperform conventional architectures and achieve competitive accuracy relative to MLPs, while preserving graph- based interpretability and enabling the explicit extraction of mathematical laws from the learned edges.	Fuzzy... Fuzzy Cognitive Maps, Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks, Causal Modeling, Neuro-Symbolic AI
Retrieval Augmented Time Series Forecasting	2026-04-06	Show Retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) is a central component of modern LLM systems, particularly in scenarios where up-to-date information is crucial for accurately responding to user queries or when queries exceed the scope of the training data. The advent of time-series foundation models (TSFM), such as Chronos, and the need for effective zero-shot forecasting performance across various time-series domains motivates the question: Do benefits of RAG similarly carry over to time series forecasting? In this paper, we advocate that the dynamic and event-driven nature of time-series data makes RAG a crucial component of TSFMs and introduce a principled RAG framework for time-series forecasting, called Retrieval Augmented Forecasting (RAF). Within RAF, we develop efficient strategies for retrieving related time-series examples and incorporating them into forecast. Through experiments and mechanistic studies, we demonstrate that RAF indeed improves the forecasting accuracy across diverse time series domains and the improvement is more significant for larger TSFM sizes.
Dynamic Linear Coregionalization for Realistic Synthetic Multivariate Time Series	2026-04-06	Show Synthetic data is essential for training foundation models for time series (FMTS), but most generators assume static correlations, and are typically missing realistic inter-channel dependencies. We introduce DynLMC, a Dynamic Linear Model of Coregionalization, that incorporates time-varying, regime-switching correlations and cross-channel lag structures. Our approach produces synthetic multivariate time series with correlation dynamics that closely resemble real data. Fine-tuning three foundational models on DynLMC-generated data yields consistent zero-shot forecasting improvements across nine benchmarks. Our results demonstrate that modeling dynamic inter-channel correlations enhances FMTS transferability, highlighting the importance of data-centric pretraining.	ICLR ... ICLR 2026 Workshop on Time Series in the Age of Large Models
Discrete Prototypical Memories for Federated Time Series Foundation Models	2026-04-06	Show Leveraging Large Language Models (LLMs) as federated learning (FL)-based time series foundation models offers a promising way to transfer the generalization capabilities of LLMs to time series data while preserving access to private data. However, the semantic misalignment between time-series data and the text-centric latent space of existing LLMs often leads to degraded performance. Meanwhile, the parameter-sharing mechanism in existing FL methods model heterogeneous cross-domain time-series data into a unified continuous latent space, which contradicts the fact that time-series semantics frequently manifest as discrete and recurring regimes. To address these limitations, we propose \textsc{FeDPM}, a federated framework for time-series foundation models based on discrete prototypical memories. Specifically, we learn local prototypical memory priors for intra-domain time-series data. We then align cross-domain memories to promote a unified discrete latent space and introduce a domain-specific memory update mechanism to balance shared and personalized prototypical knowledge. Extensive experiments demonstrate the efficiency and effectiveness of \textsc{FeDPM}. The code is publicly available at https://anonymous.4open.science/r/FedUnit-64D1.	13 pages,5 figures
MSDformer: Multi-scale Discrete Transformer For Time Series Generation	2026-04-06	Show Discrete Token Modeling (DTM), which employs vector quantization techniques, has demonstrated remarkable success in modeling non-natural language modalities, particularly in time series generation. While our prior work SDformer established the first DTM-based framework to achieve state-of-the-art performance in this domain, two critical limitations persist in existing DTM approaches: 1) their inability to capture multi-scale temporal patterns inherent to complex time series data, and 2) the absence of theoretical foundations to guide model optimization. To address these challenges, we proposes a novel multi-scale DTM-based time series generation method, called Multi-Scale Discrete Transformer (MSDformer). MSDformer employs a multi-scale time series tokenizer to learn discrete token representations at multiple scales, which jointly characterize the complex nature of time series data. Subsequently, MSDformer applies a multi-scale autoregressive token modeling technique to capture the multi-scale patterns of time series within the discrete latent space. Theoretically, we validate the effectiveness of the DTM method and the rationality of MSDformer through the rate-distortion theorem. Comprehensive experiments demonstrate that MSDformer significantly outperforms state-of-the-art methods. Both theoretical analysis and experimental results demonstrate that incorporating multi-scale information and modeling multi-scale patterns can substantially enhance the quality of generated time series in DTM-based approaches. Code is available at this repository:https://github.com/kkking-kk/MSDformer.
A Family of Open Time-Series Foundation Models for the Radio Access Network	2026-04-05	Show The Radio Access Network (RAN) is evolving into a programmable and disaggregated infrastructure that increasingly relies on AI-native algorithms for optimization and closed-loop control. However, current RAN intelligence is still largely built from task-specific models tailored to individual functions, resulting in model fragmentation, limited knowledge sharing across tasks, poor generalization, and increased system complexity. To address these limitations, we introduce TimeRAN, a unified multi-task learning framework for time-series modeling in the RAN. TimeRAN leverages a lightweight time-series foundation model with few task-specific heads to learn transferable representations that can be efficiently adapted across diverse tasks with limited supervision. To enable large-scale pretraining, we further curate and open-source TimeRAN DataPile, the largest time-series corpus for RAN analytics to date, comprising over 355K time series and 0.56B measurements across diverse telemetry sources, protocol layers, and deployment scenarios. We evaluate TimeRAN across a comprehensive set of RAN analytics tasks, including anomaly detection, classification, forecasting, and imputation, and show that it achieves state-of-the-art performance with minimal or no task-specific fine-tuning. Finally, we integrate TimeRAN into a proof-of-concept 5G testbed and demonstrate that it operates efficiently with limited resource requirements in real-world scenarios.
El Nino Prediction Based on Weather Forecast and Geographical Time-series Data	2026-04-05	Show This paper proposes a novel framework for enhancing the prediction accuracy and lead time of El Niño events, crucial for mitigating their global climatic, economic, and societal impacts. Traditional prediction models often rely on oceanic and atmospheric indices, which may lack the granularity or dynamic interplay captured by comprehensive meteorological and geographical datasets. Our framework integrates real-time global weather forecast data with anomalies, subsurface ocean heat content, and atmospheric pressure across various temporal and spatial resolutions. Leveraging a hybrid deep learning architecture that combines a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) for spatial feature extraction and a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) network for temporal dependency modeling, the framework aims to identify complex precursors and evolving patterns of El Niño events.
Two-Sample Testing for Multivariate Cross-Correlation Functions with Applications to Gut-Brain Reward Learning	2026-04-05	Show Cross-correlation functions (CCFs) are classical tools for studying lead-lag relationships between paired time series, but they are most often used descriptively rather than inferentially. Motivated by mouse experiments on gut-brain interactions in reward learning, we carry out a two-sample hypothesis test for formal statistical inference on collections of subject-specific CCF curves. In our application, each experimental session yields two related CCFs describing the temporal association of dopamine activity with locomotor velocity and acceleration, which leads naturally to a multivariate functional data formulation. We treat each empirical CCF as a functional observation indexed by lag and test equality of mean multivariate CCF functions across groups using integrated and maximum-type global statistics, (F_{\mathrm{int}}) and (F_{\max}), constructed from pointwise Hotelling (T^2) statistics. The integrated test targets broad differences across the lag domain, whereas the maximum test is sensitive to local differences. Applied to free-feeding and intragastric infusion datasets, the proposed methods detect substantial differences in dopamine-locomotion coupling across brain region and biological sex in the free-feeding experiment, with more selective effects in the infusion setting. The proposed framework provides a flexible and rigorous FDA-based approach for comparing dynamic dependence structures across experimental conditions.
Solar-VLM: Multimodal Vision-Language Models for Augmented Solar Power Forecasting	2026-04-05	Show Photovoltaic (PV) power forecasting plays a critical role in power system dispatch and market participation. Because PV generation is highly sensitive to weather conditions and cloud motion, accurate forecasting requires effective modeling of complex spatiotemporal dependencies across multiple information sources. Although recent studies have advanced AI-based forecasting methods, most fail to fuse temporal observations, satellite imagery, and textual weather information in a unified framework. This paper proposes Solar-VLM, a large-language-model-driven framework for multimodal PV power forecasting. First, modality-specific encoders are developed to extract complementary features from heterogeneous inputs. The time-series encoder adopts a patch-based design to capture temporal patterns from multivariate observations at each site. The visual encoder, built upon a Qwen-based vision backbone, extracts cloud-cover information from satellite images. The text encoder distills historical weather characteristics from textual descriptions. Second, to capture spatial dependencies across geographically distributed PV stations, a cross-site feature fusion mechanism is introduced. Specifically, a Graph Learner models inter-station correlations through a graph attention network constructed over a K-nearest-neighbor (KNN) graph, while a cross-site attention module further facilitates adaptive information exchange among sites. Finally, experiments conducted on data from eight PV stations in a northern province of China demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed framework. Our proposed model is publicly available at https://github.com/rhp413/Solar-VLM.
Vision Transformer-Based Time-Series Image Reconstruction for Cloud-Filling Applications	2026-04-05	Show Cloud cover in multispectral imagery (MSI) poses significant challenges for early season crop mapping, as it leads to missing or corrupted spectral information. Synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data, which is not affected by cloud interference, offers a complementary solution, but lack sufficient spectral detail for precise crop mapping. To address this, we propose a novel framework, Time-series MSI Image Reconstruction using Vision Transformer (ViT), to reconstruct MSI data in cloud-covered regions by leveraging the temporal coherence of MSI and the complementary information from SAR from the attention mechanism. Comprehensive experiments, using rigorous reconstruction evaluation metrics, demonstrate that Time-series ViT framework significantly outperforms baselines that use non-time-series MSI and SAR or time-series MSI without SAR, effectively enhancing MSI image reconstruction in cloud-covered regions.	This ... This paper has been accepted as a conference paper at the 2025 IEEE International Geoscience and Remote Sensing Symposium (IGARSS)
T1: One-to-One Channel-Head Binding for Multivariate Time-Series Imputation	2026-04-05	Show Imputing missing values in multivariate time series remains challenging, especially under diverse missing patterns and heavy missingness. Existing methods suffer from suboptimal performance as corrupted temporal features hinder effective cross-variable information transfer, amplifying reconstruction errors. Robust imputation requires both extracting temporal patterns from sparse observations within each variable and selectively transferring information across variables--yet current approaches excel at one while compromising the other. We introduce T1 (Time series imputation with 1-to-1 channel-head binding), a CNN-Transformer hybrid architecture that achieves robust imputation through Channel-Head Binding--a mechanism creating one-to-one correspondence between CNN channels and attention heads. This design enables selective information transfer: when missingness corrupts certain temporal patterns, their corresponding attention pathways adaptively down-weight based on remaining observable patterns while preserving reliable cross-variable connections through unaffected channels. Experiments on 11 benchmark datasets demonstrate that T1 achieves state-of-the-art performance, reducing MSE by 46% on average compared to the second-best baseline, with particularly strong gains under extreme sparsity (70% missing ratio). The model generalizes to unseen missing patterns without retraining and uses a consistent hyperparameter configuration across all datasets. The code is available at https://github.com/Oppenheimerdinger/T1.	Accep... Accepted at ICLR 2026
Graph State-Space Models and Latent Relational Inference	2026-04-05	Show State-space models effectively model multivariate time series by updating over time a representation of the system state from which predictions are made. The state representation is usually a vector without any explicit structure. Relational inductive biases, e.g., associated with dependencies among input signals and state representations, are not explicitly exploited during processing, leaving unattended opportunities for effective modeling. The manuscript aims to fill this gap by matching state-space modeling and spatio-temporal data where the relational information, say the functional graph capturing latent dependencies, is learned directly from time series. In particular, we propose Graph State-Space Models, a novel probabilistic framework that jointly learns state-space dynamics and latent relational structures end-to-end on downstream tasks. The proposed framework generalizes several state-of-the-art methods and, as we show, is effective in extracting meaningful latent relational structures and obtaining accurate forecasts.
Reimagining RAN Automation in 6G: An Agentic AI Framework with Hierarchical Online Decision Transformer	2026-04-05	Show In this paper, we propose an Agentic Artificial Intelligence (AI) framework for wireless networks. The framework coordinates a pool of AI agents guided by Natural Language (NL) inputs from a human operator. At its core, the super agent is powered by a Hierarchical Online Decision Transformer (H-ODT). It orchestrates three categories of agents: (i) inter-slice, intra-slice resource allocation agents, (ii) network application orchestration agents, and (iii) self-healing agents. The orchestration takes place with the help of an Agentic Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) module that integrates knowledge from heterogeneous sources. In this proposed methodology, the super agent directly interfaces with operators and generates sequential policies to activate relevant agents. The proposed framework is evaluated against three state-of-the-art baselines, showing improved throughput, reduced network delay, and higher energy efficiency at both slice-level and system-wide performance metrics. Also, the proposed Agentic framework introduces a bi-level human operator intent validation methodology, both at the slice-level and Key Performance Indicator (KPI)-level using generative AI-based time series predictors. We could rule out performance-degrading operator intents with an accuracy of 88.5%. Lastly, while being interrupted by any performance-degrading events, the self-healing capability of Agentic AI in our framework automatically recovers 90% of its previous performance, avoiding quality-of-service drifts when there is no human involvement.	Paper... Paper currently under review (IEEE TNSE). Contents of this work may change at any time without notice. This is the author's preliminary version
The Role of Entanglement in Quantum Reservoir Computing with Coupled Kerr Nonlinear Oscillators	2026-04-04	Show Quantum Reservoir Computing (QRC) uses quantum dynamics to efficiently process temporal data. In this work, we investigate a QRC framework based on two coupled Kerr nonlinear oscillators, a system well-suited for time-series prediction tasks due to its complex nonlinear interactions and potentially high-dimensional state space. We explore how its performance in forecasting both linear and nonlinear time-series depends on key physical parameters: input drive strength, Kerr nonlinearity, and oscillator coupling, and analyze the role of entanglement in improving the reservoir's computational performance, focusing on its effect on predicting non-trivial time series. Using logarithmic negativity to quantify entanglement and normalized root mean square error (NRMSE) to evaluate predictive accuracy, individual parameter sweeps show that optimal performance occurs at moderate but non-zero entanglement. Furthermore, an aggregated binned analysis reveals that this moderate entanglement is consistently associated with the optimal average predictive performance across the parameter space, an observation that persists up to a threshold in the input frequency. This relationship persists under some levels of dissipation and dephasing. In particular, we find that higher dissipation rates can enhance performance. These findings contribute to the broader understanding of quantum reservoirs for high performance, efficient quantum machine learning and time-series forecasting.
PRISM: Lightweight Multivariate Time-Series Classification through Symmetric Multi-Resolution Convolutional Layers	2026-04-04	Show Multivariate time series classification supports applications from wearable sensing to biomedical monitoring and demands models that can capture both short-term patterns and multi-scale temporal dependencies. Despite recent advances, Transformer and CNN models often remain computationally heavy and rely on many parameters. This work presents PRISM(Per-channel Resolution Informed Symmetric Module), a lightweight fully convolutional classifier. Operating in a channel-independent manner, in its early stage it applies a set of multi-resolution symmetric convolutional filters. This symmetry enforces structural constraints inspired by linear-phase FIR filters from classical signal processing, effectively halving the number of learnable parameters within the initial layers while preserving the full receptive field. Across the diverse UEA multivariate time-series archive as well as specific benchmarks in human activity recognition, sleep staging, and biomedical signals, PRISM matches or outperforms state-of-the-art CNN and Transformer models while using significantly fewer parameters and markedly lower computational cost. By bringing a principled signal processing prior into a modern neural architecture, PRISM offers an effective and computationally economical solution for multivariate time series classification. Code and data are available at https://github.com/fedezuc/PRISM
When GPUs Fail Quietly: Observability-Aware Early Warning Beyond Numeric Telemetry	2026-04-04	Show GPU nodes are central to modern HPC and AI workloads, yet many failures do not manifest as immediate hard faults. While some instabilities emerge gradually as weak thermal or efficiency drift, a significant class occurs abruptly with little or no numeric precursor. In these detachment-class failures, GPUs become unavailable at the driver or interconnect level and the dominant observable signal is structural, including disappearance of device metrics and degradation of monitoring payload integrity. This paper proposes an observability-aware early-warning framework that jointly models (i) utilization-aware thermal drift signatures in GPU telemetry and (ii) monitoring-pipeline degradation indicators such as scrape latency increase, sample loss, time-series gaps, and device-metric disappearance. The framework is evaluated on production telemetry from GPU nodes at GWDG, where GPU, node, monitoring, and scheduler signals can be correlated. Results show that detachment failures exhibit minimal numeric precursor and are primarily observable through structural telemetry collapse, while joint modeling increases early-warning lead time compared to GPU-only detection. The dataset used in this study is publicly available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.19052367.	12 pa... 12 pages, 6 figures. Includes public dataset: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.19052367
Process-Informed Forecasting of Complex Thermal Dynamics in Pharmaceutical Manufacturing	2026-04-04	Show Accurate time-series forecasting for complex physical systems is the backbone of modern industrial monitoring and control, yet deep learning models often lack the physical consistency required in regulated environments. To bridge this gap, we introduce Process-Informed Forecasting (PIF) models for temperature in pharmaceutical lyophilization, embedding deterministic production recipes as macro-structural priors. We investigate classical methods (e.g., Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model) and modern deep learning architectures, including Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks (KANs). We compare three different loss function formulations that integrate a process-informed trajectory prior: a fixed-weight loss, a dynamic uncertainty-based loss, and a Residual-Based Attention (RBA) mechanism. We evaluate all models not only for accuracy and physical consistency but also for robustness to sensor noise. Furthermore, we test the practical generalizability of the best model in a transfer learning scenario on a new process. Our results show that PIF models outperform their data-driven counterparts in terms of accuracy, physical plausibility and noise resilience, offering a scalable framework for reliable and generalizable forecasting solutions in critical manufacturing.
Spherically Embedded Time Series with Unknown Trend and Periodic Components	2026-04-04	Show Spherically embedded time series are time series with values naturally residing on or can be equivalently mapped to the sphere. Despite their ubiquity in diverse scientific fields, these data frequently exhibit complex non-stationarity driven by latent trend and periodic components. Traditional Euclidean time series methods fail to account for the intrinsic non-Euclidean geometry of the sphere, leaving a critical gap in rigorous methodologies for modelling and forecasting nonstationary spherically embedded time series. To address this methodological gap, we propose a unified geometric framework to analyse nonstationary spherically embedded time series. Central to our approach is a novel nonparametric spherical trend-periodicity decomposition model that uses an optimal-transport-based removal operation to sequentially extract the smooth trend and periodic components while preserving spherical topology. The resulting de-trended and de-seasonalised stationary residuals can be further modelled using a spherical autoregressive model, formalising a novel trend-periodic spherical autoregressive model. Theoretical foundations for the modelling procedure are established on the consistency under temporal dependence. Extensive simulations corroborate these theoretical guarantees and demonstrate the superior finite-sample predictive performance of the trend-periodic spherical autoregressive model. Finally, we validate the practical utility of our methodology through applications to electricity generation compositions and bike trip volume profiles, yielding significantly enhanced forecasting accuracy while providing interpretable insights into the underlying structural dynamics.
Learning Nonlinear Regime Transitions via Semi-Parametric State-Space Models	2026-04-03	Show We develop a semi-parametric state-space model for time-series data with latent regime transitions. Classical Markov-switching models use fixed parametric transition functions, such as logistic or probit links, which restrict flexibility when transitions depend on nonlinear and context-dependent effects. We replace this assumption with learned functions $f_0, f_1 \in \calH$, where $\calH$ is either a reproducing kernel Hilbert space or a spline approximation space, and define transition probabilities as $p_{jk,t} = \sigmoid(f(\bx_{t-1}))$. The transition functions are estimated jointly with emission parameters using a generalized Expectation-Maximization algorithm. The E-step uses the standard forward-backward recursion, while the M-step reduces to a penalized regression problem with weights from smoothed occupation measures. We establish identifiability conditions and provide a consistency argument for the resulting estimators. Experiments on synthetic data show improved recovery of nonlinear transition dynamics compared to parametric baselines. An empirical study on financial time series demonstrates improved regime classification and earlier detection of transition events.	12 pa... 12 pages, 1 figures, 2 tables
Recurrent Quantum Feature Maps for Reservoir Computing	2026-04-03	Show Reservoir computing promises a fast method for handling large amounts of temporal data. This hinges on constructing a good reservoir--a dynamical system capable of transforming inputs into a high-dimensional representation while remembering properties of earlier data. In this work, we introduce a reservoir based on recurrent quantum feature maps where a fixed quantum circuit is reused to encode both current inputs and a classical feedback signal derived from previous outputs. We evaluate the model on the Mackey-Glass time-series prediction task using our recently introduced CP feature map, and find that it achieves lower mean squared error than standard classical baselines, including echo state networks and multilayer perceptrons, while maintaining compact circuit depth and qubit requirements. We further analyze memory capacity and show that the model effectively retains temporal information, consistent with its forecasting accuracy. Finally, we study the impact of realistic noise and find that performance is robust to several noise channels but remains sensitive to two-qubit gate errors, identifying a key limitation for near-term implementations.	11 pages, 13 figures
Frequency-Domain Analysis of Time Series with Network-Structured Dependence: Application to Global Bank Connectedness	2026-04-03	Show Financial spillovers in interconnected systems, such as global banking networks, require tools that capture temporal and frequency dynamics, while incorporating the underlying network topology. While current network time series models are developed in the time-domain, frequency-domain approaches, which reveal how cross-nodal dependencies vary across different cycles, remain under-explored. This paper develops a spectral analysis framework that accommodates flexible forms of network dependence, including interactions mediated through intermediate nodes. This ensures that inter-nodal relationships are not restricted to direct connections, a feature crucial for capturing indirect financial spillovers. We define the network time series spectral density, alongside coherence and partial coherence, and propose both parametric and network-constrained nonparametric methods for their estimation. Simulations and theoretical results demonstrate the strong performance of the parametric approach when the data-generating process aligns with the model structure, whereas the nonparametric alternative provides robustness against model misspecification. An application to global bank connectedness shows that the proposed spectral measures capture inter-bank frequency-specific spillover effects, yielding results consistent with existing measures while additionally uncovering richer patterns of volatility transmission that are intimately connected to the network topology.
Adversarial Robustness of Deep State Space Models for Forecasting	2026-04-03	Show State-space model (SSM) for time-series forecasting have demonstrated strong empirical performance on benchmark datasets, yet their robustness under adversarial perturbations is poorly understood. We address this gap through a control-theoretic lens, focusing on the recently proposed Spacetime SSM forecaster. We first establish that the decoder-only Spacetime architecture can represent the optimal Kalman predictor when the underlying data-generating process is autoregressive - a property no other SSM possesses. Building on this, we formulate robust forecaster design as a Stackelberg game against worst-case stealthy adversaries constrained by a detection budget, and solve it via adversarial training. We derive closed-form bounds on adversarial forecasting error that expose how open-loop instability, closed-loop instability, and decoder state dimension each amplify vulnerability - offering actionable principles towards robust forecaster design. Finally, we show that even adversaries with no access to the forecaster can nonetheless construct effective attacks by exploiting the model's locally linear input-output behavior, bypassing gradient computations entirely. Experiments on the Monash benchmark datasets highlight that model-free attacks, without any gradient computation, can cause at least 33% more error than projected gradient descent with a small step size.	8 pag... 8 pages, 5 figures, conference submission
NeedForHeat DataGear: An Open Monitoring System to Accelerate the Residential Heating Transition	2026-04-03	Show We introduce NeedForHeat DataGear: an open hardware and open software data collection system designed to accelerate the residential heating transition. NeedForHeat DataGear collects time series monitoring data in homes that have not yet undergone a heating transition, enabling assessment of real-life thermal characteristics, heating system efficiency, and residents' comfort needs. This paper outlines its architecture and functionalities, emphasizing its modularity, adaptability, and cost-effectiveness for field data acquisition. Unlike conventional domestic monitoring solutions focused on home automation, direct feedback, or post-installation heat pump monitoring, it prioritizes time series data we deemed essential to evaluate the current situation in existing homes before the heating transition. Designed for seamless deployment across diverse households, NeedForHeat DataGear combines openness, security, and privacy with a low-cost, user-friendly approach, making it a valuable tool for researchers, energy professionals, and energy coaches.	10 pa... 10 pages + 3 pages appendices
Multidecadal Cycles Study in the Climate Indexes Series Using Wavelet Analysis in North/Northeast Brazil	2026-04-03	Show This study investigates the climatic index time series over the most recent 80 years, using monthly mean values from the Pacific Decadal Oscillation Index (PDO), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), and monthly solar activity represented by sunspot numbers (MS), obtained from the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center and the World Data Center SILSO, Royal Observatory of Belgium, Brussels. The statistical software R was used with the \texttt{WaveletComp} package to generate Morlet wavelet power spectra, and bivariate cross-wavelet analysis using the \texttt{biwavelet} package. The results show predominant cycles with variability scales of 32, 64, 128, and 256 months, corresponding approximately to 2.66, 5.33, 10.66, and 21.33 years. These frequencies are observed in the period from January 1933 to September 2016, totaling 993 months (82.75 years), characterizing decadal and multidecadal variability. These multidecadal cycles (of the order of 10.66 and 21.33 years) suggest a possible association with solar activity variability and climate variability in the ocean-atmosphere system. Rainfall data from January 1951 to September 2017 were analyzed for Belém, São Luiz, Fortaleza, Natal, and Fernando de Noronha, forming a north to northeast Brazilian transect. These series show similarity with the decadal and multidecadal cycles observed in the SOI, PDO, and sunspot series.	9 pag... 9 pages, 3 figures, published in Anuário do Instituto de Geociências (UFRJ), 42(1):66-73, 2019. DOI: 10.11137/2019_1_66_73
The Long-Range Memory and the Fractal Dimension: a Case Study for Alcântara	2026-04-03	Show This study aimed to analyze the time series behavior of the Southern Oscillation Index through techniques using Fast Fourier Transform, computing the autocorrelation function, and the calculation of the Hurst coefficient. The methodology of Hurst exponent calculation uses different lags, which are computed in the time series of Southern Oscillation Index. The persistent behavior in the time series can be characterized by calculating the Hurst exponent, seeking for more behavioral information, such as the existence of persistence and/or terms of long-range memory in the series. The results show a persistence of the climate in terms of long-memory Southern Oscillation Index time series, which can help to understand complex dynamic behavior in climate effects at global-scale level and specifically its influence in northeastern Brazil, in the region of the Alcântara Launch Center. The R package \texttt{tseriesChaos} was used in the analysis of the Southern Oscillation Index time series, estimating the largest Lyapunov exponent, which indicates the existence of chaotic behavior in time series. The resampling technique was used in a permutation test between the surface wind data in the São Luís airport, Maranhão State, and the Southern Oscillation Index. The permutation test results showed that the time series of monthly average wind speed in the São Luís airport is correlated with the variability of Southern Oscillation Index, statistically significant at the 5% confidence level. The results also indicate the possibility of using autoregressive models to represent average meteorological variables in behavioral analysis, as well as trends in the climate, more specifically a possible climatic influence of El Niño--Southern Oscillation on wind strength in the Alcântara Launch Center.	8 pag... 8 pages, 6 figures, published in Journal of Aerospace Technology and Management (2017), DOI: 10.5028/jatm.v9i4.683
JointFM-0.1: A Foundation Model for Multi-Target Joint Distributional Prediction	2026-04-03	Show Despite the rapid advancements in Artificial Intelligence (AI), Stochastic Differential Equations (SDEs) remain the gold-standard formalism for modeling systems under uncertainty. However, applying SDEs in practice is fraught with challenges: modeling risk is high, calibration is often brittle, and high-fidelity simulations are computationally expensive. This technical report introduces JointFM, a foundation model that inverts this paradigm. Instead of fitting SDEs to data, we sample an infinite stream of synthetic SDEs to train a generic model to predict future joint probability distributions directly. This approach establishes JointFM as the first foundation model for distributional predictions of coupled time series - requiring no task-specific calibration or finetuning. Despite operating in a purely zero-shot setting, JointFM reduces the energy loss by 21.1% relative to the strongest baseline when recovering oracle joint distributions generated by unseen synthetic SDEs.
Early Classification of Time Series in Non-Stationary Cost Regimes	2026-04-03	Show Early Classification of Time Series (ECTS) addresses decision-making problems in which predictions must be made as early as possible while maintaining high accuracy. Most existing ECTS methods assume that the time-dependent decision costs governing the learning objective are known, fixed, and correctly specified. In practice, however, these costs are often uncertain and may change over time, leading to mismatches between training-time and deployment-time objectives. In this paper, we study ECTS under two practically relevant forms of cost non-stationarity: drift in the balance between misclassification and decision delay costs, and stochastic realizations of decision costs that deviate from the nominal training-time model. To address these challenges, we revisit representative ECTS approaches and adapt them to an online learning setting. Focusing on separable methods, we update only the triggering model during deployment, while keeping the classifier fixed. We propose several online adaptations and baselines, including bandit-based and RL-based approaches, and conduct controlled experiments on synthetic data to systematically evaluate robustness under cost non-stationarity. Our results demonstrate that online learning can effectively improve the robustness of ECTS methods to cost drift, with RL-based strategies exhibiting strong and stable performance across varying cost regimes.
Towards Intelligent Energy Security: A Unified Spatio-Temporal and Graph Learning Framework for Scalable Electricity Theft Detection in Smart Grids	2026-04-03	Show Electricity theft and non-technical losses (NTLs) remain critical challenges in modern smart grids, causing significant economic losses and compromising grid reliability. This study introduces the SmartGuard Energy Intelligence System (SGEIS), an integrated artificial intelligence framework for electricity theft detection and intelligent energy monitoring. The proposed system combines supervised machine learning, deep learning-based time-series modeling, Non-Intrusive Load Monitoring (NILM), and graph-based learning to capture both temporal and spatial consumption patterns. A comprehensive data processing pipeline is developed, incorporating feature engineering, multi-scale temporal analysis, and rule-based anomaly labeling. Deep learning models, including Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), Temporal Convolutional Networks (TCN), and Autoencoders, are employed to detect abnormal usage patterns. In parallel, ensemble learning methods such as Random Forest, Gradient Boosting, XGBoost, and LightGBM are utilized for classification. To model grid topology and spatial dependencies, Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) are applied to identify correlated anomalies across interconnected nodes. The NILM module enhances interpretability by disaggregating appliance-level consumption from aggregate signals. Experimental results demonstrate strong performance, with Gradient Boosting achieving a ROC-AUC of 0.894, while graph-based models attain over 96% accuracy in identifying high-risk nodes. The hybrid framework improves detection robustness by integrating temporal, statistical, and spatial intelligence. Overall, SGEIS provides a scalable and practical solution for electricity theft detection, offering high accuracy, improved interpretability, and strong potential for real-world smart grid deployment.	26 pages, 9 figures
Output-Constrained Decision Trees	2026-04-03	Show Incorporating domain-specific constraints into machine learning models is essential for generating predictions that are both accurate and feasible in real-world applications. This paper introduces new methods for training Output-Constrained Regression Trees (OCRT), addressing the limitations of traditional decision trees in constrained multi-target regression tasks. We propose three approaches: M-OCRT, which uses split-based mixed integer programming to enforce constraints; E-OCRT, which employs an exhaustive search for optimal splits and solves constrained prediction problems at each decision node; and EP-OCRT, which applies post-hoc constrained optimization to tree predictions. To illustrate their potential uses in ensemble learning, we also introduce a random forest framework working under convex feasible sets. We validate the proposed methods through a computational study both on synthetic and industry-driven hierarchical time series datasets. Our results demonstrate that imposing constraints on decision tree training results in accurate and feasible predictions.	27 pages, 3 figures
High-dimensional Autoregressive Modeling for Time Series with Hierarchical Structures	2026-04-03	Show Modern applications have made ubiquitous high-dimensional data, especially time-dependent data, with more and more complicated structures, and it also has become more frequent to encounter the scenario of hierarchical relationships among variables. However, there is still a lack of supervised learning tool in the literature for them. To fill this gap, we introduce a new model-designing framework, and it then combines with unsupervised factor modeling tools to form an efficient and interpretable autoregressive model for high-dimensional time series with hierarchical structures. An ordinary least squares estimation is considered, and its non-asymptotic properties are established. Moreover, we propose an algorithm to search for estimates, and a boosting method is also suggested for hyperparameter selection. Simulation experiments are conducted to evaluate finite-sample performance of the proposed methodology, and its usefulness is demonstrated by an application to the Personality-120 dataset.
ROMAN: A Multiscale Routing Operator for Convolutional Time Series Models	2026-04-02	Show We introduce ROMAN (ROuting Multiscale representAtioN), a deterministic operator for time series that maps temporal scale and coarse temporal position into an explicit channel structure while reducing sequence length. ROMAN builds an anti-aliased multiscale pyramid, extracts fixed-length windows from each scale, and stacks them as pseudochannels, yielding a compact representation on which standard convolutional classifiers can operate. In this way, ROMAN provides a simple mechanism to control the inductive bias of downstream models: it can reduce temporal invariance, make temporal pooling implicitly coarse-position-aware, and expose multiscale interactions through channel mixing, while often improving computational efficiency by shortening the processed time axis. We formally analyze the ROMAN operator and then evaluate it in two complementary ways by measuring its impact as a preprocessing step for four representative convolutional classifiers: MiniRocket, MultiRocket, a standard CNN-based classifier, and a fully convolutional network (FCN) classifier. First, we design synthetic time series classification tasks that isolate coarse position awareness, long-range correlation, multiscale interaction, and full positional invariance, showing that ROMAN behaves consistently with its intended mechanism and is most useful when class information depends on temporal structure that standard pooled convolution tends to suppress. Second, we benchmark the same models with and without ROMAN on long-sequence subsets of the UCR and UEA archives, showing that ROMAN provides a practically useful alternative representation whose effect on accuracy is task-dependent, but whose effect on efficiency is often favorable. Code is available at https://github.com/gon-uri/ROMAN	16 pa... 16 pages, appendix, 4 figures, 3 tables
Causal-Audit: A Framework for Risk Assessment of Assumption Violations in Time-Series Causal Discovery	2026-04-02	Show Time-series causal discovery methods rely on assumptions such as stationarity, regular sampling, and bounded temporal dependence. When these assumptions are violated, structure learning can produce confident but misleading causal graphs without warning. We introduce Causal-Audit, a framework that formalizes assumption validation as calibrated risk assessment. The framework computes effect-size diagnostics across five assumption families (stationarity, irregularity, persistence, nonlinearity, and confounding proxies), aggregates them into four calibrated risk scores with uncertainty intervals, and applies an abstention-aware decision policy that recommends methods (e.g., PCMCI+, VAR-based Granger causality) only when evidence supports reliable inference. The semi-automatic diagnostic stage can also be used independently for structured assumption auditing in individual studies. Evaluation on a synthetic atlas of 500 data-generating processes (DGPs) spanning 10 violation families demonstrates well-calibrated risk scores (AUROC > 0.95), a 62% false positive reduction among recommended datasets, and 78% abstention on severe-violation cases. On 21 external evaluations from TimeGraph (18 categories) and CausalTime (3 domains), recommend-or-abstain decisions are consistent with benchmark specifications in all cases. An open-source implementation of our framework is available.	28 pa... 28 pages, 10 figures, 15 tables. Being submitted to Journal of Causal Inference JCI
AIVV: Neuro-Symbolic LLM Agent-Integrated Verification and Validation for Trustworthy Autonomous Systems	2026-04-02	Show Deep learning models excel at detecting anomaly patterns in normal data. However, they do not provide a direct solution for anomaly classification and scalability across diverse control systems, frequently failing to distinguish genuine faults from nuisance faults caused by noise or the control system's large transient response. Consequently, because algorithmic fault validation remains unscalable, full Verification and Validation (V&V) operations are still managed by Human-in-the-Loop (HITL) analysis, resulting in an unsustainable manual workload. To automate this essential oversight, we propose Agent-Integrated Verification and Validation (AIVV), a hybrid framework that deploys Large Language Models (LLMs) as a deliberative outer loop. Because rigorous system verification strictly depends on accurate validation, AIVV escalates mathematically flagged anomalies to a role-specialized LLM council. The council agents perform collaborative validation by semantically validating nuisance and true failures based on natural-language (NL) requirements to secure a high-fidelity system-verification baseline. Building on this foundation, the council then performs system verification by assessing post-fault responses against NL operational tolerances, ultimately generating actionable V&V artifacts, such as gain-tuning proposals. Experiments on a time-series simulator for Unmanned Underwater Vehicles (UUVs) demonstrate that AIVV successfully digitizes the HITL V&V process, overcoming the limitations of rule-based fault classification and offering a scalable blueprint for LLM-mediated oversight in time-series data domains.
Hybrid Hidden Markov Model for Modeling Equity Excess Growth Rate Dynamics: A Discrete-State Approach with Jump-Diffusion	2026-04-02	Show Generating synthetic financial time series that preserve the statistical properties of real market data is essential for stress testing, risk model validation, and scenario design. Existing approaches struggle to simultaneously reproduce heavy-tailed distributions, negligible linear autocorrelation, and persistent volatility clustering. We developed a hybrid hidden Markov framework that discretized excess growth rates into Laplace quantile-defined states and augmented regime switching with a Poisson jump-duration mechanism to enforce realistic tail-state dwell times. Parameters were estimated by direct transition counting, bypassing the Baum-Welch EM algorithm and scaling to a 424-asset pipeline. Applied to ten years of daily equity data, the framework achieved high distributional pass rates both in-sample and out-of-sample while partially reproducing the volatility clustering that standard regime-switching models miss. No single model was best at everything: GARCH(1,1) better reproduced volatility clustering but failed distributional tests, while the standard HMM without jumps passed more distributional tests but could not generate volatility clustering. The proposed framework delivered the most balanced performance overall. For multi-asset generation, copula-based dependence models that preserved each asset's marginal HMM distribution substantially outperformed a Single-Index Model factor baseline on both per-asset distributional accuracy and correlation reproduction.
Generalized Machine Learning for Fast Calibration of Agent-Based Epidemic Models	2026-04-02	Show Agent-based models (ABMs) are widely used to study infectious disease dynamics, but their calibration is often computationally intensive, limiting their applicability in time-sensitive public health settings. We propose DeepIMC (Deep Inverse Mapping Calibration), a machine learning-based calibration framework that directly learns the inverse mapping from epidemic time series to epidemiological parameters. DeepIMC trains a bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory (BiLSTM) neural network on synthetic epidemic trajectories generated from agent-based models such as the Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model, enabling rapid parameter estimation without repeated simulation at inference time. We evaluate DeepIMC through an extensive simulation study comprising 5,000 heterogeneous epidemic scenarios and benchmark its performance against Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) using likelihood-free Markov Chain Monte Carlo. The results show that DeepIMC substantially improves parameter recovery accuracy, produces sharp and well-calibrated predictive intervals, and reduces computational time by more than an order of magnitude relative to ABC. Although structural parameter identifiability constraints limit the precise recovery of all model parameters simultaneously, the calibrated models reliably reproduce epidemic trajectories and support accurate forward prediction with their estimated parameters. DeepIMC is implemented in the open-source R package epiworldRCalibrate, facilitating practical adoption for real-time epidemic modeling and policy analysis. Overall, our findings demonstrate that DeepIMC provides a scalable, operationally effective alternative to traditional simulation-based calibration methods for agent-based epidemic models.
Application of parametric Shallow Recurrent Decoder Network to magnetohydrodynamic flows in liquid metal blankets of fusion reactors	2026-04-02	Show Magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) phenomena play a pivotal role in the design and operation of nuclear fusion systems, where electrically conducting fluids (such as liquid metals or molten salts employed in reactor blankets) interact with magnetic fields of varying intensity and orientation, influencing the resulting flow dynamics. The numerical solution of MHD models entails the resolution of highly nonlinear, multiphysics systems of equations, which can become computationally demanding, particularly in multi-query, parametric, or real-time contexts. This study investigates a fully data-driven framework for MHD state reconstruction that integrates dimensionality reduction through Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) with the SHallow REcurrent Decoder (SHRED), a neural network architecture designed to reconstruct the full spatio-temporal state from sparse time-series measurements of selected observables, including previously unseen parametric configurations. The SHRED methodology is applied to a three-dimensional geometry representative of a portion of a WCLL blanket cell, in which lead-lithium flows around a water-cooled tube. Multiple magnetic field configurations are examined, including constant toroidal fields, combined toroidal-poloidal fields, and time-dependent magnetic fields. Across all considered scenarios, SHRED achieves high reconstruction accuracy, robustness, and generalization to magnetic field intensities, orientations, and temporal evolutions not seen during training. Notably, in the presence of time-varying magnetic fields, the model accurately infers the temporal evolution of the magnetic field itself using temperature measurements alone. Overall, the findings identify SHRED as a computationally efficient, data-driven, and flexible approach for MHD state reconstruction, with significant potential for real-time monitoring, diagnostics and control in fusion reactor systems.
LLM-as-a-Judge for Time Series Explanations	2026-04-02	Show Evaluating factual correctness of LLM generated natural language explanations grounded in time series data remains an open challenge. Although modern models generate textual interpretations of numerical signals, existing evaluation methods are limited: reference based similarity metrics and consistency checking models require ground truth explanations, while traditional time series methods operate purely on numerical values and cannot assess free form textual reasoning. Thus, no general purpose method exists to directly verify whether an explanation is faithful to underlying time series data without predefined references or task specific rules. We study large language models as both generators and evaluators of time series explanations in a reference free setting, where given a time series, question, and candidate explanation, the evaluator assigns a ternary correctness label based on pattern identification, numeric accuracy, and answer faithfulness, enabling principled scoring and comparison. To support this, we construct a synthetic benchmark of 350 time series cases across seven query types, each paired with correct, partially correct, and incorrect explanations. We evaluate models across four tasks: explanation generation, relative ranking, independent scoring, and multi anomaly detection. Results show a clear asymmetry: generation is highly pattern dependent and exhibits systematic failures on certain query types, with accuracies ranging from 0.00 to 0.12 for Seasonal Drop and Volatility Shift, to 0.94 to 0.96 for Structural Break, while evaluation is more stable, with models correctly ranking and scoring explanations even when their own outputs are incorrect. These findings demonstrate feasibility of data grounded LLM based evaluation for time series explanations and highlight their potential as reliable evaluators of data grounded reasoning in the time series domain.	Under Review
Network Structure in UK Payment Flows: Evidence on Economic Interdependencies and Implications for Real-Time Measurement	2026-04-02	Show Network analysis of inter-industry payment flows reveals structural economic relationships invisible to traditional bilateral measurement approaches, with significant implications for real-time economic monitoring. Analysing 532,346 UK payment records (2017--2024) across 89 industry sectors, we demonstrate that graph-theoretic features which include centrality measures and clustering coefficients improve payment flow forecasting by 8.8 percentage points beyond traditional time-series methods. Critically, network features prove most valuable during economic disruptions: during the COVID-19 pandemic, when traditional forecasting accuracy collapsed (R2} falling from 0.38 to 0.19), network-enhanced models maintained substantially better performance, with network contributions reaching +13.8 percentage points. The analysis identifies Financial Services, Wholesale Trade, and Professional Services as structurally central industries whose network positions indicate systemic importance beyond their transaction volumes. Network density increased 12.5% over the sample period, with visible disruption during 2020 followed by recovery exceeding pre-pandemic integration levels. These findings suggest payment network monitoring could enhance official statistics production by providing leading indicators of structural economic change and improving nowcasting accuracy during periods when traditional temporal patterns prove unreliable.	Accep... Accepted for Poster presentation at the ESCoE Conference on Economic Measurement 2026
CANDI: Curated Test-Time Adaptation for Multivariate Time-Series Anomaly Detection Under Distribution Shift	2026-04-02	Show Multivariate time-series anomaly detection (MTSAD) aims to identify deviations from normality in multivariate time-series and is critical in real-world applications. However, in real-world deployments, distribution shifts are ubiquitous and cause severe performance degradation in pre-trained anomaly detector. Test-time adaptation (TTA) updates a pre-trained model on-the-fly using only unlabeled test data, making it promising for addressing this challenge. In this study, we propose CANDI (Curated test-time adaptation for multivariate time-series ANomaly detection under DIstribution shift), a novel TTA framework that selectively identifies and adapts to potential false positives while preserving pre-trained knowledge. CANDI introduces a False Positive Mining (FPM) strategy to curate adaptation samples based on anomaly scores and latent similarity, and incorporates a plug-and-play Spatiotemporally-Aware Normality Adaptation (SANA) module for structurally informed model updates. Extensive experiments demonstrate that CANDI significantly improves the performance of MTSAD under distribution shift, improving AUROC up to 14% while using fewer adaptation samples.	AAAI 2026
Bridging Deep Learning and Integer Linear Programming: A Predictive-to-Prescriptive Framework for Supply Chain Analytics	2026-04-02	Show Although demand forecasting is a critical component of supply chain planning, actual retail data can exhibit irreconcilable seasonality, irregular spikes, and noise, rendering precise projections nearly unattainable. This paper proposes a three-step analytical framework that combines forecasting and operational analytics. The first stage consists of exploratory data analysis, where delivery-tracked data from 180,519 transactions are partitioned, and long-term trends, seasonality, and delivery-related attributes are examined. Secondly, the forecasting performance of a statistical time series decomposition model N-BEATS MSTL and a recent deep learning architecture N-HiTS were compared. N-BEATS and N-HiTS were both statistically, and hence were N-BEATS's and N-HiTS's statistically selected. Most recent time series deep learning models, N-HiTS, N-BEATS. N-HiTS and N-BEATS N-HiTS and N-HiTS outperformed the statistical benchmark to a large extent. N-BEATS was selected to be the most optimized model, as the one with the lowest forecasting error, in the 3rd and final stage forecasting values of the next 4 weeks of 1918 units, and provided those as a model with a set of deterministically integer linear program outcomes that are aimed to minimize the total delivery time with a set of bound budget, capacity, and service constraints. The solution allocation provided a feasible and cost-optimal shipping plan. Overall, the study provides a compelling example of the practical impact of precise forecasting and simple, highly interpretable model optimization in logistics.	12 pa... 12 pages, 4 figures, 4 tables
Correlation analysis of the dispersion of SARS-CoV-2 in Mexico	2026-04-02	Show In this paper, we propose a method to analyze correlations in pandemic-related data across different geographical regions, relying on the analysis of correlations for non-stationary time series, which are typical of pandemic data. Unlike traditional epidemiological approaches focused on medical and modeling perspectives during a pandemic, our method emphasizes post-pandemic analysis to assess how societal responses; such as lockdowns, travel restrictions, mobility patterns, and vaccination campaigns, manifest in the collective behavior of regions. These insights can inform future public health strategies and enhance understanding of the complex dynamics underlying pandemic spread and control.	8 pages, 6 figures
MATA-Former & SIICU: Semantic Aware Temporal Alignment for High-Fidelity ICU Risk Prediction	2026-04-02	Show Forecasting evolving clinical risks relies on intrinsic pathological dependencies rather than mere chronological proximity, yet current methods struggle with coarse binary supervision and physical timestamps. To align predictive modeling with clinical logic, we propose the Medical-semantics Aware Time-ALiBi Transformer (MATA-Former), utilizing event semantics to dynamically parameterize attention weights to prioritize causal validity over time lags. Furthermore, we introduce Plateau-Gaussian Soft Labeling (PSL), reformulating binary classification into continuous multi-horizon regression for full-trajectory risk modeling. Evaluated on SIICU -- a newly constructed dataset featuring over 506k events with rigorous expert-verified, fine-grained annotations -- and the MIMIC-IV dataset, our framework demonstrates superior efficacy and robust generalization in capturing risks from text-intensive, irregular clinical time series.
Transformer self-attention encoder-decoder with multimodal deep learning for response time series forecasting and digital twin support in wind structural health monitoring	2026-04-02	Show The wind-induced structural response forecasting capabilities of a novel transformer methodology are examined here. The model also provides a digital twin component for bridge structural health monitoring. Firstly, the approach uses the temporal characteristics of the system to train a forecasting model. Secondly, the vibration predictions are compared to the measured ones to detect large deviations. Finally, the identified cases are used as an early-warning indicator of structural change. The artificial intelligence-based model outperforms approaches for response forecasting as no assumption on wind stationarity or on structural normal vibration behavior is needed. Specifically, wind-excited dynamic behavior suffers from uncertainty related to obtaining poor predictions when the environmental or traffic conditions change. This results in a hard distinction of what constitutes normal vibration behavior. To this end, a framework is rigorously examined on real-world measurements from the Hardanger Bridge monitored by the Norwegian University of Science and Technology. The approach captures accurate structural behavior in realistic conditions, and with respect to the changes in the system excitation. The results, importantly, highlight the potential of transformer-based digital twin components to serve as next-generation tools for resilient infrastructure management, continuous learning, and adaptive monitoring over the system's lifecycle with respect to temporal characteristics.	21 pa... 21 pages, 22 figures, 9 tables. This version corresponds to the published article in Computers & Structures. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.compstruc.2026.108216
Labels Matter More Than Models: Rethinking the Unsupervised Paradigm in Time Series Anomaly Detection	2026-04-02	Show Time series anomaly detection (TSAD) is a critical data mining task often constrained by label scarcity. Consequently, current research predominantly focuses on Unsupervised Time-series Anomaly Detection (UTAD), relying on increasingly complex architectures to model normal data distributions. However, this algorithm-centric trend often overlooks the significant performance gains achievable from limited anomaly labels available in practical scenarios. This paper challenges the premise that algorithmic complexity is the optimal path for TSAD. Instead of proposing another intricate unsupervised model, we present a comprehensive benchmark and empirical study to rigorously compare supervised and unsupervised paradigms. To isolate the value of labels, we introduce \stand, a deliberately minimalist supervised baseline. Extensive experiments on five public datasets demonstrate that: (1) Labels matter more than models: under a limited labeling budget, simple supervised models significantly outperform complex state-of-the-art unsupervised methods; (2) Supervision yields higher returns: the performance gain from minimal supervision far exceeds the incremental gains from architectural innovations; and (3) Practicality: \stand~exhibits superior prediction consistency and anomaly localization compared to unsupervised counterparts. These findings advocate for a paradigm shift in TSAD research, urging the community to prioritize data-centric label utilization over purely algorithmic complexity. The code and benchmark are publicly available at https://github.com/EmorZz1G/STAND.	20 pa... 20 pages, 15 figures, 8 tables. Under review
Semantic-Enhanced Time-Series Forecasting via Large Language Models	2026-04-02	Show Time series forecasting plays a significant role in finance, energy, meteorology, and IoT applications. Recent studies have leveraged the generalization capabilities of large language models (LLMs) to adapt to time series forecasting, achieving promising performance. However, existing studies focus on token-level modal alignment, instead of bridging the intrinsic modality gap between linguistic knowledge structures and time series data patterns, greatly limiting the semantic representation. To address this issue, we propose a novel Semantic-Enhanced LLM (SE-LLM) that explores the inherent periodicity and anomalous characteristics of time series to embed into the semantic space to enhance the token embedding. This process enhances the interpretability of tokens for LLMs, thereby activating the potential of LLMs for temporal sequence analysis. Moreover, existing Transformer-based LLMs excel at capturing long-range dependencies but are weak at modeling short-term anomalies in time-series data. Hence, we propose a plugin module embedded within self-attention that models long-term and short-term dependencies to effectively adapt LLMs to time-series analysis. Our approach freezes the LLM and reduces the sequence dimensionality of tokens, greatly reducing computational consumption. Experiments demonstrate the superiority performance of our SE-LLM against the state-of-the-art (SOTA) methods.	23 pages,6 figures
Simulation and Analysis of Multifractional Stochastic Processes with R Package Rmfrac	2026-04-02	Show Brownian motion and fractional Brownian motion have been widely applied in statistical modeling in finance, telecommunication, network traffic, neuroscience, physics, and other fields. More realistic models for real time series data, such as multifractional processes, generalize these classical models by allowing their regularity to vary over time. A new class of Gaussian Haar-based multifractional processes, which utilizes the Haar wavelet series representation, was recently introduced. It significantly extends the range of available models by incorporating more general classes of Hurst functions. The Rmfrac package was developed to simulate multifractional time series. The package also comprises several functions for the analysis and visualization of time series. It includes the estimation of the Hurst function and local fractal dimension, clustering realizations and computing various geometric statistics of these time series. The package also offers a Shiny application to visualize simulation and estimation results. The article presents an overview of the Rmfrac package and exemplifies its main functionalities.	29 pages, 10 figures

Trajectory

Title	Date	Abstract	Comment
Beyond Loss Values: Robust Dynamic Pruning via Loss Trajectory Alignment	2026-04-08	Show Existing dynamic data pruning methods often fail under noisy-label settings, as they typically rely on per-sample loss as the ranking criterion. This could mistakenly lead to preserving noisy samples due to their high loss values, resulting in significant performance drop. To address this, we propose AlignPrune, a noise-robust module designed to enhance the reliability of dynamic pruning under label noise. Specifically, AlignPrune introduces the Dynamic Alignment Score (DAS), which is a loss-trajectory-based criterion that enables more accurate identification of noisy samples, thereby improving pruning effectiveness. As a simple yet effective plug-and-play module, AlignPrune can be seamlessly integrated into state-of-the-art dynamic pruning frameworks, consistently outperforming them without modifying either the model architecture or the training pipeline. Extensive experiments on five widely-used benchmarks across various noise types and pruning ratios demonstrate the effectiveness of AlignPrune, boosting accuracy by up to 6.3% over state-of-the-art baselines. Our results offer a generalizable solution for pruning under noisy data, encouraging further exploration of learning in real-world scenarios. Code is available at: https://github.com/leonqin430/AlignPrune.	Publi... Published in CVPR 2026 Findings
TraceSafe: A Systematic Assessment of LLM Guardrails on Multi-Step Tool-Calling Trajectories	2026-04-08	Show As large language models (LLMs) evolve from static chatbots into autonomous agents, the primary vulnerability surface shifts from final outputs to intermediate execution traces. While safety guardrails are well-benchmarked for natural language responses, their efficacy remains largely unexplored within multi-step tool-use trajectories. To address this gap, we introduce TraceSafe-Bench, the first comprehensive benchmark specifically designed to assess mid-trajectory safety. It encompasses 12 risk categories, ranging from security threats (e.g., prompt injection, privacy leaks) to operational failures (e.g., hallucinations, interface inconsistencies), featuring over 1,000 unique execution instances. Our evaluation of 13 LLM-as-a-guard models and 7 specialized guardrails yields three critical findings: 1) Structural Bottleneck: Guardrail efficacy is driven more by structural data competence (e.g., JSON parsing) than semantic safety alignment. Performance correlates strongly with structured-to-text benchmarks ($ρ=0.79$) but shows near-zero correlation with standard jailbreak robustness. 2) Architecture over Scale: Model architecture influences risk detection performance more significantly than model size, with general-purpose LLMs consistently outperforming specialized safety guardrails in trajectory analysis. 3) Temporal Stability: Accuracy remains resilient across extended trajectories. Increased execution steps allow models to pivot from static tool definitions to dynamic execution behaviors, actually improving risk detection performance in later stages. Our findings suggest that securing agentic workflows requires jointly optimizing for structural reasoning and safety alignment to effectively mitigate mid-trajectory risks.
VHOI: Controllable Video Generation of Human-Object Interactions from Sparse Trajectories via Motion Densification	2026-04-08	Show Synthesizing realistic human-object interactions (HOI) in video is challenging due to the complex, instance-specific interaction dynamics of both humans and objects. Incorporating controllability in video generation further adds to the complexity. Existing controllable video generation approaches face a trade-off: sparse controls like keypoint trajectories are easy to specify but lack instance-awareness, while dense signals such as optical flow, depths or 3D meshes are informative but costly to obtain. We propose VHOI, a two-stage framework that first densifies sparse trajectories into HOI mask sequences, and then fine-tunes a video diffusion model conditioned on these dense masks. We introduce a novel HOI-aware motion representation that uses color encodings to distinguish not only human and object motion, but also body-part-specific dynamics. This design incorporates a human prior into the conditioning signal and strengthens the model's ability to understand and generate realistic HOI dynamics. Experiments demonstrate state-of-the-art results in controllable HOI video generation. VHOI is not limited to interaction-only scenarios and can also generate full human navigation leading up to object interactions in an end-to-end manner. Project page: https://vcai.mpi-inf.mpg.de/projects/vhoi/.
Self-Discovered Intention-aware Transformer for Multi-modal Vehicle Trajectory Prediction	2026-04-08	Show Predicting vehicle trajectories plays an important role in autonomous driving and ITS applications. Although multiple deep learning algorithms are devised to predict vehicle trajectories, their reliant on specific graph structure (e.g., Graph Neural Network) or explicit intention labeling limit their flexibilities. In this study, we propose a pure Transformer-based network with multiple modals considering their neighboring vehicles. Two separate tracks are employed. One track focuses on predicting the trajectories while the other focuses on predicting the likelihood of each intention considering neighboring vehicles. Study finds that the two track design can increase the performance by separating spatial module from the trajectory generating module. Also, we find the the model can learn an ordered group of trajectories by predicting residual offsets among K trajectories.	5 pages, 2 figures
Differentiable Environment-Trajectory Co-Optimization for Safe Multi-Agent Navigation	2026-04-08	Show The environment plays a critical role in multi-agent navigation by imposing spatial constraints, rules, and limitations that agents must navigate around. Traditional approaches treat the environment as fixed, without exploring its impact on agents' performance. This work considers environment configurations as decision variables, alongside agent actions, to jointly achieve safe navigation. We formulate a bi-level problem, where the lower-level sub-problem optimizes agent trajectories that minimize navigation cost and the upper-level sub-problem optimizes environment configurations that maximize navigation safety. We develop a differentiable optimization method that iteratively solves the lower-level sub-problem with interior point methods and the upper-level sub-problem with gradient ascent. A key challenge lies in analytically coupling these two levels. We address this by leveraging KKT conditions and the Implicit Function Theorem to compute gradients of agent trajectories w.r.t. environment parameters, enabling differentiation throughout the bi-level structure. Moreover, we propose a novel metric that quantifies navigation safety as a criterion for the upper-level environment optimization, and prove its validity through measure theory. Our experiments validate the effectiveness of the proposed framework in a variety of safety-critical navigation scenarios, inspired from warehouse logistics to urban transportation. The results demonstrate that optimized environments provide navigation guidance, improving both agents' safety and efficiency.
STERN: Simultaneous Trajectory Estimation and Relative Navigation for Autonomous Underwater Proximity Operations	2026-04-08	Show Due to the challenges regarding the limits of their endurance and autonomous capabilities, underwater docking for autonomous underwater vehicles (AUVs) has become a topic of interest for many academic and commercial applications. Herein, we take on the problem of relative navigation for the generalized version of the docking operation, which we address as proximity operations. Proximity operations typically involve only two actors, a chaser and a target. We leverage the similarities to proximity operations (prox-ops) from spacecraft robotic missions to frame the diverse docking scenarios with a set of phases the chaser undergoes on the way to its target. We emphasize the versatility on the use of factor graphs as a generalized representation to model the underlying simultaneous trajectory estimation and relative navigation (STERN) problem that arises with any prox-ops scenario, regardless of the sensor suite or the agents' dynamic constraints. To emphasize the flexibility of factor graphs as the modeling foundation for arbitrary underwater prox-ops, we compile a list of state-of-the-art research in the field and represent the different scenario using the same factor graph representation. We detail the procedure required to model, design, and implement factor graph-based estimators by addressing a long-distance acoustic homing scenario of an AUV to a moving mothership using datasets from simulated and real-world deployments; an analysis of these results is provided to shed light on the flexibility and limitations of the dynamic assumptions of the moving target. A description of our front- and back-end is also presented together with a timing breakdown of all processes to show its potential deployment on a real-time system.	v2 up... v2 updated after revision. Article contains 24 pages and 18 figures. Published in the IEEE Journal of Oceanic Engineering, available at: https://doi.org/10.1109/JOE.2025.3624470
SCT-MOT: Enhancing Air-to-Air Multiple UAVs Tracking with Swarm-Coupled Motion and Trajectory Guidance	2026-04-08	Show Air-to-air tracking of swarm UAVs presents significant challenges due to the complex nonlinear group motion and weak visual cues for small objects, which often cause detection failures, trajectory fragmentation, and identity switches. Although existing methods have attempted to improve performance by incorporating trajectory prediction, they model each object independently, neglecting the swarm-level motion dependencies. Their limited integration between motion prediction and appearance representation also weakens the spatio-temporal consistency required for tracking in visually ambiguous and cluttered environments, making it difficult to maintain coherent trajectories and reliable associations. To address these challenges, we propose SCT-MOT, a tracking framework that integrates Swarm-Coupled motion modeling and Trajectory-guided feature fusion. First, we develop a Swarm Motion-Aware Trajectory Prediction (SMTP) module jointly models historical trajectories and posture-aware appearance features from a swarm-level perspective, enabling more accurate forecasting of the nonlinear, coupled group trajectories. Second, we design a Trajectory-Guided Spatio-Temporal Feature Fusion (TG-STFF) module aligns predicted positions with historical visual cues and deeply integrates them with current frame features, enhancing temporal consistency and spatial discriminability for weak objects. Extensive experiments on three public air-to-air swarm UAV tracking datasets, including AIRMOT, MOT-FLY, and UAVSwarm, demonstrate that SMTP achieves more accurate trajectory forecasts and yields a 1.21% IDF1 improvement over the state-of-the-art trajectory prediction module EqMotion when integrated into the same MOT framework. Overall, our SCT-MOT consistently achieves superior accuracy and robustness compared to state-of-the-art trackers across multiple metrics under complex swarm scenarios.	17 pa... 17 pages, 7 figures. Under review at IEEE Transactions on Aerospace and Electronic Systems (TAES). This work has been submitted to the IEEE for possible publication
Inference-Time Scaling of Diffusion Language Models via Trajectory Refinement	2026-04-08	Show Discrete diffusion models have recently emerged as strong alternatives to autoregressive language models, matching their performance through large-scale training. However, inference-time control remains relatively underexplored. In this work, we study how to steer generation toward desired rewards without retraining the models. Prior methods typically resample or filter within a single denoising trajectory, optimizing rewards step-by-step without trajectory-level refinement. We introduce particle Gibbs sampling for diffusion language models (PG-DLM), an inference-time algorithm enabling trajectory-level refinement. PG-DLM constructs a Markov chain over full denoising trajectories and applies a conditional sequential Monte Carlo kernel to resample them. By doing so, PG-DLM introduces a new scaling axis, the number of refinement iterations, which is unavailable to prior methods. Increasing iterations remains effective even as gains from adding more parallel samples saturate. Furthermore, PG-DLM enables adaptive compute allocation by performing additional iterations only when needed, leading to further efficiency gains. We derive theoretical guarantees for convergence and variance bounds, and analyze trade-offs across different scaling axes. Empirically, PG-DLM outperforms prior methods across compute budgets on reward-guided generation tasks. On GSM8K, it achieves 90.07% accuracy with 2.9 particles on average and 94.47% accuracy with 16 particles.
ATBench: A Diverse and Realistic Agent Trajectory Benchmark for Safety Evaluation and Diagnosis	2026-04-08	Show Evaluating the safety of LLM-based agents is increasingly important because risks in realistic deployments often emerge over multi-step interactions rather than isolated prompts or final responses. Existing trajectory-level benchmarks remain limited by insufficient interaction diversity, coarse observability of safety failures, and weak long-horizon realism. We introduce ATBench, a trajectory-level benchmark for structured, diverse, and realistic evaluation of agent safety. ATBench organizes agentic risk along three dimensions: risk source, failure mode, and real-world harm. Based on this taxonomy, we construct trajectories with heterogeneous tool pools and a long-context delayed-trigger protocol that captures realistic risk emergence across multiple stages. The benchmark contains 1,000 trajectories (503 safe and 497 unsafe), averaging 9.01 turns and 3.95k tokens, with 1,954 invoked tools drawn from pools spanning 2,084 available tools. Data quality is supported by rule-based and LLM-based filtering plus full human audit. Experiments on frontier LLMs, open-source models, and specialized guard systems show that ATBench is challenging even for strong evaluators, while enabling taxonomy-stratified analysis, cross-benchmark comparison, and diagnosis of long-horizon failure patterns.
TEC: A Collection of Human Trial-and-error Trajectories for Problem Solving	2026-04-08	Show Trial-and-error is a fundamental strategy for humans to solve complex problems and a necessary capability for Artificial Intelligence (AI) systems operating in real-world environments. Although several trial-and-error AI techniques have recently been proposed, most of them rely on simple heuristics designed by researchers and achieve limited performance gains. The core issue is the absence of appropriate data: current models cannot learn from detailed records of how humans actually conduct trial-and-error in practice. To address this gap, we introduce a data annotation platform and a corresponding dataset, termed Trial-and-Error Collection (TEC). The platform records users' complete trajectories across multiple trials and collects their reflections after receiving error feedback. Using this platform, we record the problem-solving processes of 46 participants on 58 tasks, resulting in 5,370 trial trajectories along with error reflections across 41,229 webpages. With this dataset, we observe that humans achieve substantially higher accuracy compared to LLMs, which demonstrates that humans are more effective in trial-and-error than LLMs. We believe that the TEC platform and dataset provide a valuable foundation for understanding human trial-and-error behavior and for developing more capable AI systems. Platform and dataset are publicly available.
TrajectoryMover: Generative Movement of Object Trajectories in Videos	2026-04-07	Show Generative video editing has enabled several intuitive editing operations for short video clips that would previously have been difficult to achieve, especially for non-expert editors. Existing methods focus on prescribing an object's 3D or 2D motion trajectory in a video, or on altering the appearance of an object or a scene, while preserving both the video's plausibility and identity. Yet a method to move an object's 3D motion trajectory in a video, i.e., moving an object while preserving its relative 3D motion, is currently still missing. The main challenge lies in obtaining paired video data for this scenario. Previous methods typically rely on clever data generation approaches to construct plausible paired data from unpaired videos, but this approach fails if one of the videos in a pair can not easily be constructed from the other. Instead, we introduce TrajectoryAtlas, a new data generation pipeline for large-scale synthetic paired video data and a video generator TrajectoryMover fine-tuned with this data. We show that this successfully enables generative movement of object trajectories. Project page: https://chhatrekiran.github.io/trajectorymover	24 pa... 24 pages, 8 figures. Project page: https://chhatrekiran.github.io/trajectorymover
AgentHER: Hindsight Experience Replay for LLM Agent Trajectory Relabeling	2026-04-07	Show LLM agents fail on the majority of real-world tasks -- GPT-4o succeeds on fewer than 15% of WebArena navigation tasks and below 55% pass@1 on ToolBench (Zhou et al., 2024; Qin et al., 2024) -- yet every failed trajectory is routinely discarded, wasting the dominant source of collected experience. We introduce AgentHER, a framework that recovers this lost training signal by adapting the Hindsight Experience Replay (HER; Andrychowicz et al., 2017) principle to natural-language agent trajectories for offline data augmentation. The key insight is simple: a trajectory that fails goal A is often a correct demonstration for some achievable alternative goal B. AgentHER realises this idea through a four-stage pipeline -- failure classification, outcome extraction, LLM-guided prompt relabeling with confidence gating, and data packaging -- that converts discarded failures into high-quality SFT, DPO, and ShareGPT training data, with both zero-cost rule-based and LLM-judge implementations. On WebArena (Zhou et al., 2024) and ToolBench (Qin et al., 2024), AgentHER improves over success-only SFT by +7.1-11.7 pp across four model families (GPT-4o, Qwen2.5-72B/7B, LLaMA-3.1-8B), while achieving 2x data efficiency -- matching baseline performance with only 50% of successful demonstrations. Gains are consistent from 1.5B to 72B parameters (+5.8-9.2 pp) and compound under iterative redeployment (+2.1 pp over additional rounds). Human evaluation confirms 97.7% relabeling precision under multi-judge verification.
Modeling Patient Care Trajectories with Transformer Hawkes Processes	2026-04-07	Show Patient healthcare utilization consists of irregularly time-stamped events, such as outpatient visits, inpatient admissions, and emergency encounters, forming individualized care trajectories. Modeling these trajectories is crucial for understanding utilization patterns and predicting future care needs, but is challenging due to temporal irregularity and severe class imbalance. In this work, we build on the Transformer Hawkes Process framework to model patient trajectories in continuous time. By combining Transformer-based history encoding with Hawkes process dynamics, the model captures event dependencies and jointly predicts event type and time-to-event. To address extreme imbalance, we introduce an imbalance-aware training strategy using inverse square-root class weighting. This improves sensitivity to rare but clinically important events without altering the data distribution. Experiments on real-world data demonstrate improved performance and provide clinically meaningful insights for identifying high-risk patient populations.
LLM Reasoning as Trajectories: Step-Specific Representation Geometry and Correctness Signals	2026-04-07	Show This work characterizes large language models' chain-of-thought generation as a structured trajectory through representation space. We show that mathematical reasoning traverses functionally ordered, step-specific subspaces that become increasingly separable with layer depth. This structure already exists in base models, while reasoning training primarily accelerates convergence toward termination-related subspaces rather than introducing new representational organization. While early reasoning steps follow similar trajectories, correct and incorrect solutions diverge systematically at late stages. This late-stage divergence enables mid-reasoning prediction of final-answer correctness with ROC-AUC up to 0.87. Furthermore, we introduce trajectory-based steering, an inference-time intervention framework that enables reasoning correction and length control based on derived ideal trajectories. Together, these results establish reasoning trajectories as a geometric lens for interpreting, predicting, and controlling LLM reasoning behavior.	ACL 2026 (Main)
Goal-Oriented Reactive Simulation for Closed-Loop Trajectory Prediction	2026-04-07	Show Current trajectory prediction models are primarily trained in an open-loop manner, which often leads to covariate shift and compounding errors when deployed in real-world, closed-loop settings. Furthermore, relying on static datasets or non-reactive log-replay simulators severs the interactive loop, preventing the ego agent from learning to actively negotiate surrounding traffic. In this work, we propose an on-policy closed-loop training paradigm optimized for high-frequency, receding horizon ego prediction. To ground the ego prediction in a realistic representation of traffic interactions and to achieve reactive consistency, we introduce a goal-oriented, transformer-based scene decoder, resulting in an inherently reactive training simulation. By exposing the ego agent to a mixture of open-loop data and simulated, self-induced states, the model learns recovery behaviors to correct its own execution errors. Extensive evaluation demonstrates that closed-loop training significantly enhances collision avoidance capabilities at high replanning frequencies, yielding relative collision rate reductions of up to 27.0% on nuScenes and 79.5% in dense DeepScenario intersections compared to open-loop baselines. Additionally, we show that a hybrid simulation combining reactive with non-reactive surrounding agents achieves optimal balance between immediate interactivity and long-term behavioral stability.
A Synthetic Eye Movement Dataset for Script Reading Detection: Real Trajectory Replay on a 3D Simulator	2026-04-07	Show Large vision-language models have achieved remarkable capabilities by training on massive internet-scale data, yet a fundamental asymmetry persists: while LLMs can leverage self-supervised pretraining on abundant text and image data, the same is not true for many behavioral modalities. Video-based behavioral data -- gestures, eye movements, social signals -- remains scarce, expensive to annotate, and privacy-sensitive. A promising alternative is simulation: replace real data collection with controlled synthetic generation to produce automatically labeled data at scale. We introduce infrastructure for this paradigm applied to eye movement, a behavioral signal with applications across vision-language modeling, virtual reality, robotics, accessibility systems, and cognitive science. We present a pipeline for generating synthetic labeled eye movement video by extracting real human iris trajectories from reference videos and replaying them on a 3D eye movement simulator via headless browser automation. Applying this to the task of script-reading detection during video interviews, we release final_dataset_v1: 144 sessions (72 reading, 72 conversation) totaling 12 hours of synthetic eye movement video at 25fps. Evaluation shows that generated trajectories preserve the temporal dynamics of the source data (KS D < 0.14 across all metrics). A matched frame-by-frame comparison reveals that the 3D simulator exhibits bounded sensitivity at reading-scale movements, attributable to the absence of coupled head movement -- a finding that informs future simulator design. The pipeline, dataset, and evaluation tools are released to support downstream behavioral classifier development at the intersection of behavioral modeling and vision-language systems.	Synth... Synthetic eye movement dataset generation via 3D eye simulator; iris trajectory replay; script reading detection; behavioral data augmentation
PRISM-MCTS: Learning from Reasoning Trajectories with Metacognitive Reflection	2026-04-07	Show PRISM-MCTS: Learning from Reasoning Trajectories with Metacognitive Reflection Siyuan Cheng, Bozhong Tian, Yanchao Hao, Zheng Wei Published: 06 Apr 2026, Last Modified: 06 Apr 2026 ACL 2026 Findings Conference, Area Chairs, Reviewers, Publication Chairs, Authors Revisions BibTeX CC BY 4.0 Keywords: Efficient/Low-Resource Methods for NLP, Generation, Question Answering Abstract: The emergence of reasoning models, exemplified by OpenAI o1, signifies a transition from intuitive to deliberative cognition, effectively reorienting the scaling laws from pre-training paradigms toward test-time computation. While Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) has shown promise in this domain, existing approaches typically treat each rollout as an isolated trajectory. This lack of information sharing leads to severe inefficiency and substantial computational redundancy, as the search process fails to leverage insights from prior explorations. To address these limitations, we propose PRISM-MCTS, a novel reasoning framework that draws inspiration from human parallel thinking and reflective processes. PRISM-MCTS integrates a Process Reward Model (PRM) with a dynamic shared memory, capturing both "Heuristics" and "Fallacies". By reinforcing successful strategies and pruning error-prone branches, PRISM-MCTS effectively achieves refinement. Furthermore, we develop a data-efficient training strategy for the PRM, achieving high-fidelity evaluation under a few-shot regime. Empirical evaluations across diverse reasoning benchmarks substantiate the efficacy of PRISM-MCTS. Notably, it halves the trajectory requirements on GPQA while surpassing MCTS-RAG and Search-o1, demonstrating that it scales inference by reasoning judiciously rather than exhaustively.
CC-VPSTO: Chance-Constrained Via-Point-Based Stochastic Trajectory Optimisation for Online Robot Motion Planning under Uncertainty	2026-04-06	Show Reliable robot autonomy hinges on decision-making systems that account for uncertainty without imposing overly conservative restrictions on the robot's action space. We introduce Chance-Constrained Via-Point-Based Stochastic Trajectory Optimisation (CC-VPSTO), a real-time capable framework for generating task-efficient robot trajectories that satisfy constraints with high probability by formulating stochastic control as a chance-constrained optimisation problem. Since such problems are generally intractable, we propose a deterministic surrogate formulation based on Monte Carlo sampling, solved efficiently with gradient-free optimisation. To address bias in naïve sampling approaches, we quantify approximation error and introduce padding strategies to improve reliability. We focus on three challenges: (i) sample-efficient constraint approximation, (ii) conditions for surrogate solution validity, and (iii) online optimisation. Integrated into a receding-horizon MPC framework, CC-VPSTO enables reactive, task-efficient control under uncertainty, balancing constraint satisfaction and performance in a principled manner. The strengths of our approach lie in its generality, i.e. no assumptions on the underlying uncertainty distribution, system dynamics, cost function, or the form of inequality constraints; and its applicability to online robot motion planning. We demonstrate the validity and efficiency of our approach in both simulation and on a Franka Emika robot.	23 pa... 23 pages, 12 figures, submitted to International Journal of Robotics Research
Multimodal Classification Network Guided Trajectory Planning for Four-Wheel Independent Steering Autonomous Parking Considering Obstacle Attributes	2026-04-06	Show Four-wheel Independent Steering (4WIS) vehicles have attracted increasing attention for their superior maneuverability. Human drivers typically choose to cross or drive over the low-profile obstacles (e.g., plastic bags) to efficiently navigate through narrow spaces, while existing planners neglect obstacle attributes, leading to suboptimal efficiency or planning failures. To address this issue, we propose a novel multimodal trajectory planning framework that employs a neural network for scene perception, combines 4WIS hybrid A* search to generate a warm start, and utilizes an optimal control problem (OCP) for trajectory optimization. Specifically, a multimodal perception network fusing visual information and vehicle states is employed to capture semantic and contextual scene understanding, enabling the planner to adapt the strategy according to scene complexity (hard or easy task). For hard tasks, guided points are introduced to decompose complex tasks into local subtasks, improving the search efficiency. The multiple steering modes of 4WIS vehicles, Ackermann, diagonal, and zero-turn, are also incorporated as kinematically feasible motion primitives. Moreover, a hierarchical obstacle handling strategy, which categorizes obstacles as "non-traversable", "crossable", and "drive-over", is incorporated into the node expansion process, explicitly linking obstacle attributes to planning actions to enable efficient decisions. Furthermore, to address dynamic obstacles with motion uncertainty, we introduce a probabilistic risk field model, constructing risk-aware driving corridors that serve as linear collision constraints in OCP. Experimental results demonstrate the proposed framework's effectiveness in generating safe, efficient, and smooth trajectories for 4WIS vehicles, especially in constrained environments.	The m... The manuscript in this current form requires substantial revision. For this reason, I request the withdrawal of the submission to allow for comprehensive improvement before resubmission
Uncertainty-Guided Latent Diagnostic Trajectory Learning for Sequential Clinical Diagnosis	2026-04-06	Show Clinical diagnosis requires sequential evidence acquisition under uncertainty. However, most Large Language Model (LLM) based diagnostic systems assume fully observed patient information and therefore do not explicitly model how clinical evidence should be sequentially acquired over time. Even when diagnosis is formulated as a sequential decision process, it is still challenging to learn effective diagnostic trajectories. This is because the space of possible evidence-acquisition paths is relatively large, while clinical datasets rarely provide explicit supervision information for desirable diagnostic paths. To this end, we formulate sequential diagnosis as a Latent Diagnostic Trajectory Learning (LDTL) framework based on a planning LLM agent and a diagnostic LLM agent. For the diagnostic LLM agent, diagnostic action sequences are treated as latent paths and we introduce a posterior distribution that prioritizes trajectories providing more diagnostic information. The planning LLM agent is then trained to follow this distribution, encouraging coherent diagnostic trajectories that progressively reduce uncertainty. Experiments on the MIMIC-CDM benchmark demonstrate that our proposed LDTL framework outperforms existing baselines in diagnostic accuracy under a sequential clinical diagnosis setting, while requiring fewer diagnostic tests. Furthermore, ablation studies highlight the critical role of trajectory-level posterior alignment in achieving these improvements.
SAIL: Scene-aware Adaptive Iterative Learning for Long-Tail Trajectory Prediction in Autonomous Vehicles	2026-04-06	Show Autonomous vehicles (AVs) rely on accurate trajectory prediction for safe navigation in diverse traffic environments, yet existing models struggle with long-tail scenarios-rare but safety-critical events characterized by abrupt maneuvers, high collision risks, and complex interactions. These challenges stem from data imbalance, inadequate definitions of long-tail trajectories, and suboptimal learning strategies that prioritize common behaviors over infrequent ones. To address this, we propose SAIL, a novel framework that systematically tackles the long-tail problem by first defining and modeling trajectories across three key attribute dimensions: prediction error, collision risk, and state complexity. Our approach then synergizes an attribute-guided augmentation and feature extraction process with a highly adaptive contrastive learning strategy. This strategy employs a continuous cosine momentum schedule, similarity-weighted hard-negative mining, and a dynamic pseudo-labeling mechanism based on evolving feature clustering. Furthermore, it incorporates a focusing mechanism to intensify learning on hard-positive samples within each identified class. This comprehensive design enables SAIL to excel at identifying and forecasting diverse and challenging long-tail events. Extensive evaluations on the nuScenes and ETH/UCY datasets demonstrate SAIL's superior performance, achieving up to 28.8% reduction in prediction error on the hardest 1% of long-tail samples compared to state-of-the-art baselines, while maintaining competitive accuracy across all scenarios. This framework advances reliable AV trajectory prediction in real-world, mixed-autonomy settings.
TIGFlow-GRPO: Trajectory Forecasting via Interaction-Aware Flow Matching and Reward-Guided Optimization	2026-04-06	Show Human trajectory forecasting is important for intelligent multimedia systems operating in visually complex environments, such as autonomous driving and crowd surveillance. Although Conditional Flow Matching (CFM) has shown strong ability in modeling trajectory distributions from spatio-temporal observations, existing approaches still focus primarily on supervised fitting, which may leave social norms and scene constraints insufficiently reflected in generated trajectories. To address this issue, we propose TIGFlow-GRPO, a two-stage generative approach that aligns flow-based trajectory generation with behavioral rules. In the first stage, we build a CFM-based predictor with a Trajectory-Interaction-Graph (TIG) module to model fine-grained visual-spatial interactions and strengthen context encoding. This stage captures both agent-agent and agent-scene relations more effectively, providing more informative conditional features for subsequent alignment. In the second stage, we perform Flow-GRPO post-training, where deterministic flow rollout is reformulated as stochastic ODE-to-SDE sampling to enable trajectory exploration, and a composite reward combines view-aware social compliance with map-aware physical feasibility. By evaluating trajectories explored through SDE rollout, GRPO progressively steers multimodal predictions toward behaviorally plausible futures. Experiments on the ETH/UCY and SDD datasets show that TIGFlow-GRPOimproves forecasting accuracy and long-horizon stability while generatingtrajectories that are more socially compliant and physically feasible.These results suggest that the proposed approach provides an effective way to connectflow-based trajectory modeling with behavior-aware alignment in dynamic multimedia environments.
Search-Based Multi-Trajectory Refinement for Safe C-to-Rust Translation with Large Language Models	2026-04-06	Show The C programming language has been foundational in building system-level software. However, its manual memory management model frequently leads to memory safety issues. In response, Rust has emerged as a memory-safe alternative. Moreover, automating the C-to-Rust translation empowered by the rapid advancements of the generative capabilities of LLMs is gaining growing interest for large volumes of legacy C code. Leveraging LLM for the C-to-Rust translation introduces distinct challenges, unlike the math or commonsense QA domains where the LLMs have been predominantly applied. First, the scarcity of parallel C-to-Rust datasets hinders the retrieval of suitable code translation exemplars for in-context learning. Second, unlike math or commonsense QA problems, the intermediate steps required for C-to-Rust are not well-defined. Third, it remains unclear how to organize and cascade these intermediate steps to construct a correct translation trajectory. While existing LLM-based approaches have achieved some success, they have relied on iterative code refinement along a single search trajectory on a C-to-Rust problem space and have not explored the use of systematic search mechanisms to navigate the space of possible refinement trajectories. To address these challenges in the C-to-Rust translation, we propose the MCTS-Guided LLM refinement technique for automated C-to-safe-Rust translation (LAC2R). LAC2R uses MCTS to systematically explore multiple refinement trajectories and organize the LLM-induced intermediate steps for correct translation. We experimentally demonstrated that LAC2R effectively conducts C-to-Rust translation on large-scale, real-world benchmarks. On small-scale benchmarks, LAC2R is the only method that simultaneously attains the highest safety ratio, perfect project-level correctness, and the fewest linter warnings among the compared methods.
Accelerated Gradient Methods for Nonconvex Optimization: Escape Trajectories From Strict Saddle Points and Convergence to Local Minima	2026-04-06	Show This paper considers the problem of understanding the behavior of a general class of accelerated gradient methods on smooth nonconvex functions. Motivated by some recent works that have proposed effective algorithms, based on Polyak's heavy ball method and the Nesterov accelerated gradient method, to achieve convergence to a local minimum of nonconvex functions, this work proposes a broad class of Nesterov-type accelerated methods and puts forth a rigorous study of these methods encompassing the escape from saddle points and convergence to local minima through both an asymptotic and a non-asymptotic analysis. In the asymptotic regime, this paper answers an open question of whether Nesterov's accelerated gradient method (NAG) with variable momentum parameter avoids strict saddle points almost surely. This work also develops two metrics of asymptotic rates of convergence and divergence, and evaluates these two metrics for several popular standard accelerated methods such as the NAG and Nesterov's accelerated gradient with constant momentum (NCM) near strict saddle points. In the non-asymptotic regime, this work provides an analysis that leads to the "linear" exit time estimates from strict saddle neighborhoods for trajectories of these accelerated methods as well the necessary conditions for the existence of such trajectories. Finally, this work studies a sub-class of accelerated methods that can converge in convex neighborhoods of nonconvex functions with a near optimal rate to a local minimum and at the same time this sub-class offers superior saddle-escape behavior compared to that of NAG.	123 p... 123 pages, 20 figures; adds a short clarification to the proof of Theorem 7.7 and incorporates a proof-stage typo fix; published in Foundations of Computational Mathematics, April 2026
Beyond Fluency: Toward Reliable Trajectories in Agentic IR	2026-04-05	Show Information Retrieval is shifting from passive document ranking toward autonomous agentic workflows that operate in multi-step Reason-Act-Observe loops. In such long-horizon trajectories, minor early errors can cascade, leading to functional misalignment between internal reasoning and external tool execution despite continued linguistic fluency. This position paper synthesizes failure modes observed in industrial agentic systems, categorizing errors across planning, retrieval, reasoning, and execution. We argue that safe deployment requires moving beyond endpoint accuracy toward trajectory integrity and causal attribution. To address compounding error and deceptive fluency, we propose verification gates at each interaction unit and advocate systematic abstention under calibrated uncertainty. Reliable Agentic IR systems must prioritize process correctness and grounded execution over plausible but unverified completion.
Learning from Imperfect Demonstrations via Temporal Behavior Tree-Guided Trajectory Repair	2026-04-05	Show Learning robot control policies from demonstrations is a powerful paradigm, yet real-world data is often suboptimal, noisy, or otherwise imperfect, posing significant challenges for imitation and reinforcement learning. In this work, we present a formal framework that leverages Temporal Behavior Trees (TBT), an extension of Signal Temporal Logic (STL) with Behavior Tree semantics, to repair suboptimal trajectories prior to their use in downstream policy learning. Given demonstrations that violate a TBT specification, a model-based repair algorithm corrects trajectory segments to satisfy the formal constraints, yielding a dataset that is both logically consistent and interpretable. The repaired trajectories are then used to extract potential functions that shape the reward signal for reinforcement learning, guiding the agent toward task-consistent regions of the state space without requiring knowledge of the agent's kinematic model. We demonstrate the effectiveness of this framework on discrete grid-world navigation and continuous single and multi-agent reach-avoid tasks, highlighting its potential for data-efficient robot learning in settings where high-quality demonstrations cannot be assumed.	12 pa... 12 pages, 4 figures. This work has been submitted to the IEEE for possible publication
Primitive-based Truncated Diffusion for Efficient Trajectory Generation of Differential Drive Mobile Manipulators	2026-04-05	Show We present a learning-enhanced motion planner for differential drive mobile manipulators to improve efficiency, success rate, and optimality. For task representation encoder, we propose a keypoint sequence extraction module that maps boundary states to 3D space via differentiable forward kinematics. Point clouds and keypoints are encoded separately and fused with attention, enabling effective integration of environment and boundary states information. We also propose a primitive-based truncated diffusion model that samples from a biased distribution. Compared with vanilla diffusion model, this framework improves the efficiency and diversity of the solution. Denoised paths are refined by trajectory optimization to ensure dynamic feasibility and task-specific optimality. In cluttered 3D simulations, our method achieves higher success rate, improved trajectory diversity, and competitive runtime compared to vanilla diffusion and classical baselines. The source code is released at https://github.com/nmoma/nmoma .	9 pages, 6 figures
InsTraj: Instructing Diffusion Models with Travel Intentions to Generate Real-world Trajectories	2026-04-05	Show The generation of realistic and controllable GPS trajectories is a fundamental task for applications in urban planning, mobility simulation, and privacy-preserving data sharing. However, existing methods face a two-fold challenge: they lack the deep semantic understanding to interpret complex user travel intent, and struggle to handle complex constraints while maintaining the realistic diversity inherent in human behavior. To resolve this, we introduce InsTraj, a novel framework that instructs diffusion models to generate high-fidelity trajectories directly from natural language descriptions. Specifically, InsTraj first utilizes a powerful large language model to decipher unstructured travel intentions formed in natural language, thereby creating rich semantic blueprints and bridging the representation gap between intentions and trajectories. Subsequently, we proposed a multimodal trajectory diffusion transformer that can integrate semantic guidance to generate high-fidelity and instruction-faithful trajectories that adhere to fine-grained user intent. Comprehensive experiments on real-world datasets demonstrate that InsTraj significantly outperforms state-of-the-art methods in generating trajectories that are realistic, diverse, and semantically faithful to the input instructions.
Align Your Structures: Generating Trajectories with Structure Pretraining for Molecular Dynamics	2026-04-05	Show Generating molecular dynamics (MD) trajectories using deep generative models has attracted increasing attention, yet remains inherently challenging due to the limited availability of MD data and the complexities involved in modeling high-dimensional MD distributions. To overcome these challenges, we propose a novel framework that leverages structure pretraining for MD trajectory generation. Specifically, we first train a diffusion-based structure generation model on a large-scale conformer dataset, on top of which we introduce an interpolator module trained on MD trajectory data, designed to enforce temporal consistency among generated structures. Our approach effectively harnesses abundant structural data to mitigate the scarcity of MD trajectory data and effectively decomposes the intricate MD modeling task into two manageable subproblems: structural generation and temporal alignment. We comprehensively evaluate our method on the QM9 and DRUGS small-molecule datasets across unconditional generation, forward simulation, and interpolation tasks, and further extend our framework and analysis to tetrapeptide and protein monomer systems. Experimental results confirm that our approach excels in generating chemically realistic MD trajectories, as evidenced by remarkable improvements of accuracy in geometric, dynamical, and energetic measurements.	Publi... Published at ICLR 2026. 38 pages, 17 figures, 17 tables
ART: Adaptive Relational Transformer for Pedestrian Trajectory Prediction with Temporal-Aware Relations	2026-04-04	Show Accurate prediction of real-world pedestrian trajectories is crucial for a wide range of robot-related applications. Recent approaches typically adopt graph-based or transformer-based frameworks to model interactions. Despite their effectiveness, these methods either introduce unnecessary computational overhead or struggle to represent the diverse and time-varying characteristics of human interactions. In this work, we present an Adaptive Relational Transformer (ART), which introduces a Temporal-Aware Relation Graph (TARG) to explicitly capture the evolution of pairwise interactions and an Adaptive Interaction Pruning (AIP) mechanism to reduce redundant computations efficiently. Extensive evaluations on ETH/UCY and NBA benchmarks show that ART delivers state-of-the-art accuracy with high computational efficiency.
Super Agents and Confounders: Influence of surrounding agents on vehicle trajectory prediction	2026-04-03	Show In highly interactive driving scenes, trajectory prediction is conditioned on information from surrounding traffic participants such as cars and pedestrians. Our main contribution is a comprehensive analysis of state-of-the-art trajectory predictors, which reveals a surprising and critical flaw: many surrounding agents degrade prediction accuracy rather than improve it. Using Shapley-based attribution, we rigorously demonstrate that models learn unstable and non-causal decision-making schemes that vary significantly across training runs. Building on these insights, we propose to integrate a Conditional Information Bottleneck (CIB), which does not require additional supervision and is trained to effectively compress agent features as well as ignore those that are not beneficial for the prediction task. Comprehensive experiments using multiple datasets and model architectures demonstrate that this simple yet effective approach not only improves overall trajectory prediction performance in many cases but also increases robustness to different perturbations. Our results highlight the importance of selectively integrating contextual information, which can often contain spurious or misleading signals, in trajectory prediction. Moreover, we provide interpretable metrics for identifying non-robust behavior and present a promising avenue towards a solution.
GraphWalker: Agentic Knowledge Graph Question Answering via Synthetic Trajectory Curriculum	2026-04-03	Show Agentic knowledge graph question answering (KGQA) requires an agent to iteratively interact with knowledge graphs (KGs), posing challenges in both training data scarcity and reasoning generalization. Specifically, existing approaches often restrict agent exploration: prompting-based methods lack autonomous navigation training, while current training pipelines usually confine reasoning to predefined trajectories. To this end, this paper proposes \textit{GraphWalker}, a novel agentic KGQA framework that addresses these challenges through \textit{Automated Trajectory Synthesis} and \textit{Stage-wise Fine-tuning}. GraphWalker adopts a two-stage SFT training paradigm: First, the agent is trained on structurally diverse trajectories synthesized from constrained random-walk paths, establishing a broad exploration prior over the KG; Second, the agent is further fine-tuned on a small set of expert trajectories to develop reflection and error recovery capabilities. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our stage-wise SFT paradigm unlocks a higher performance ceiling for a lightweight reinforcement learning (RL) stage, enabling GraphWalker to achieve state-of-the-art performance on CWQ and WebQSP. Additional results on GrailQA and our constructed GraphWalkerBench confirm that GraphWalker enhances generalization to out-of-distribution reasoning paths. The code is publicly available at https://github.com/XuShuwenn/GraphWalker
VERTIGO: Visual Preference Optimization for Cinematic Camera Trajectory Generation	2026-04-02	Show Cinematic camera control relies on a tight feedback loop between director and cinematographer, where camera motion and framing are continuously reviewed and refined. Recent generative camera systems can produce diverse, text-conditioned trajectories, but they lack this "director in the loop" and have no explicit supervision of whether a shot is visually desirable. This results in in-distribution camera motion but poor framing, off-screen characters, and undesirable visual aesthetics. In this paper, we introduce VERTIGO, the first framework for visual preference optimization of camera trajectory generators. Our framework leverages a real-time graphics engine (Unity) to render 2D visual previews from generated camera motion. A cinematically fine-tuned vision-language model then scores these previews using our proposed cyclic semantic similarity mechanism, which aligns renders with text prompts. This process provides the visual preference signals for Direct Preference Optimization (DPO) post-training. Both quantitative evaluations and user studies on Unity renders and diffusion-based Camera-to-Video pipelines show consistent gains in condition adherence, framing quality, and perceptual realism. Notably, VERTIGO reduces the character off-screen rate from 38% to nearly 0% while preserving the geometric fidelity of camera motion. User study participants further prefer VERTIGO over baselines across composition, consistency, prompt adherence, and aesthetic quality, confirming the perceptual benefits of our visual preference post-training.	28 pa... 28 pages, 10 figures, ECCV 2026
PlayGen-MoG: Framework for Diverse Multi-Agent Play Generation via Mixture-of-Gaussians Trajectory Prediction	2026-04-02	Show Multi-agent trajectory generation in team sports requires models that capture both the diversity of possible plays and realistic spatial coordination between players on plays. Standard generative approaches such as Conditional Variational Autoencoders (CVAE) and diffusion models struggle with this task, exhibiting posterior collapse or convergence to the dataset mean. Moreover, most trajectory prediction methods operate in a forecasting regime that requires multiple frames of observed history, limiting their use for play design where only the initial formation is available. We present PlayGen-MoG, an extensible framework for formation-conditioned play generation that addresses these challenges through three design choices: 1/ a Mixture-of-Gaussians (MoG) output head with shared mixture weights across all agents, where a single set of weights selects a play scenario that couples all players' trajectories, 2/ relative spatial attention that encodes pairwise player positions and distances as learned attention biases, and 3/ non-autoregressive prediction of absolute displacements from the initial formation, eliminating cumulative error drift and removing the dependence on observed trajectory history, enabling realistic play generation from a single static formation alone. On American football tracking data, PlayGen-MoG achieves 1.68 yard ADE and 3.98 yard FDE while maintaining full utilization of all 8 mixture components with entropy of 2.06 out of 2.08, and qualitatively confirming diverse generation without mode collapse.	9 pag... 9 pages, 4 figures, 2 tables. Accepted to CVPRW 2026
LaVR: Scene Latent Conditioned Generative Video Trajectory Re-Rendering using Large 4D Reconstruction Models	2026-04-02	Show Given a monocular video, the goal of video re-rendering is to generate views of the scene from a novel camera trajectory. Existing methods face two distinct challenges. Geometrically unconditioned models lack spatial awareness, leading to drift and deformation under viewpoint changes. On the other hand, geometrically-conditioned models depend on estimated depth and explicit reconstruction, making them susceptible to depth inaccuracies and calibration errors. We propose to address these challenges by using the implicit geometric knowledge embedded in the latent space of a large 4D reconstruction model to condition the video generation process. These latents capture scene structure in a continuous space without explicit reconstruction. Therefore, they provide a flexible representation that allows the pretrained diffusion prior to regularize errors more effectively. By jointly conditioning on these latents and source camera poses, we demonstrate that our model achieves state-of-the-art results on the video re-rendering task. Project webpage is https://lavr-4d-scene-rerender.github.io/.
Seeing without Pixels: Perception from Camera Trajectories	2026-04-02	Show Can one perceive a video's content without seeing its pixels, just from the camera trajectory-the path it carves through space? This paper is the first to systematically investigate this seemingly implausible question. Towards this end, we propose a contrastive learning framework to train CamFormer, a dedicated encoder that projects camera pose trajectories into a joint embedding space, aligning them with natural language. We find that, contrary to its apparent simplicity, the camera trajectory is a remarkably informative signal to uncover video content. In other words, "how you move" can indeed provide valuable cues about "what you are doing" (egocentric) or "observing" (exocentric). We demonstrate the versatility of our learned CamFormer embeddings on a diverse suite of downstream tasks, ranging from cross-modal alignment to classification and temporal analysis. Importantly, our representations are robust across diverse camera pose estimation methods, including both high-fidelity multi-sensored and standard RGB-only estimators. Our findings establish camera trajectory as a lightweight, robust, and versatile modality for perceiving video content.	Accep... Accepted by CVPR 2026, Project website: https://sites.google.com/view/seeing-without-pixels
InTraGen: Trajectory-controlled Video Generation for Object Interactions	2026-04-01	Show Advances in video generation have significantly improved the realism and quality of created scenes. This has fueled interest in developing intuitive tools that let users leverage video generation as world simulators. Text-to-video (T2V) generation is one such approach, enabling video creation from text descriptions only. Yet, due to the inherent ambiguity in texts and the limited temporal information offered by text prompts, researchers have explored additional control signals like trajectory-guided systems, for more accurate T2V generation. Nonetheless, methods to evaluate whether T2V models can generate realistic interactions between multiple objects are lacking. We introduce InTraGen, a pipeline for improved trajectory-based generation of object interaction scenarios. We propose 4 new datasets and a novel trajectory quality metric to evaluate the performance of the proposed InTraGen. To achieve object interaction, we introduce a multi-modal interaction encoding pipeline with an object ID injection mechanism that enriches object-environment interactions. Our results demonstrate improvements in both visual fidelity and quantitative performance. Code and datasets are available at https://github.com/insait-institute/InTraGen
TRACE: Training-Free Partial Audio Deepfake Detection via Embedding Trajectory Analysis of Speech Foundation Models	2026-04-01	Show Partial audio deepfakes, where synthesized segments are spliced into genuine recordings, are particularly deceptive because most of the audio remains authentic. Existing detectors are supervised: they require frame-level annotations, overfit to specific synthesis pipelines, and must be retrained as new generative models emerge. We argue that this supervision is unnecessary. We hypothesize that speech foundation models implicitly encode a forensic signal: genuine speech forms smooth, slowly varying embedding trajectories, while splice boundaries introduce abrupt disruptions in frame-level transitions. Building on this, we propose TRACE (Training-free Representation-based Audio Countermeasure via Embedding dynamics), a training-free framework that detects partial audio deepfakes by analyzing the first-order dynamics of frozen speech foundation model representations without any training, labeled data, or architectural modification. We evaluate TRACE on four benchmarks that span two languages using six speech foundation models. In PartialSpoof, TRACE achieves 8.08% EER, competitive with fine-tuned supervised baselines. In LlamaPartialSpoof, the most challenging benchmark featuring LLM-driven commercial synthesis, TRACE surpasses a supervised baseline outright (24.12% vs. 24.49% EER) without any target-domain data. These results show that temporal dynamics in speech foundation models provide an effective, generalize signal for training-free audio forensics.
VeloTree: Inferring single-cell trajectories from RNA velocity fields with varifold distances	2026-04-01	Show Trajectory inference is a critical problem in single-cell transcriptomics, which aims to reconstruct the dynamic process underlying a population of cells from sequencing data. Of particular interest is the reconstruction of differentiation trees. One way of doing this is by estimating the path distance between nodes -- labeled by cells -- based on cell similarities observed in the sequencing data. Recent sequencing techniques make it possible to measure two types of data: gene expression levels, and RNA velocity, a vector that quantifies variation in gene expression. The sequencing data then consist in a discrete vector field in dimension the number of genes of interest. In this article, we present a novel method for inferring differentiation trees from RNA velocity fields using a distance-based approach. In particular, we introduce a cell dissimilarity measure defined as the squared varifold distance between the integral curves of the RNA velocity field, which we show is a robust estimate of the path distance on the target differentiation tree. Upstream of the dissimilarity measure calculation, we also implement comprehensive routines for the preprocessing and integration of the RNA velocity field. Finally, we illustrate the ability of our method to recover differentiation trees with high accuracy on several simulated and real datasets, and compare these results with the state of the art.	arXiv... arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:2507.11313
SHIFT: Stochastic Hidden-Trajectory Deflection for Removing Diffusion-based Watermark	2026-04-01	Show Diffusion-based watermarking methods embed verifiable marks by manipulating the initial noise or the reverse diffusion trajectory. However, these methods share a critical assumption: verification can succeed only if the diffusion trajectory can be faithfully reconstructed. This reliance on trajectory recovery constitutes a fundamental and exploitable vulnerability. We propose $\underline{\mathbf{S}}$tochastic $\underline{\mathbf{Hi}}$dden-Trajectory De$\underline{\mathbf{f}}$lec$\underline{\mathbf{t}}$ion ($\mathbf{SHIFT}$), a training-free attack that exploits this common weakness across diverse watermarking paradigms. SHIFT leverages stochastic diffusion resampling to deflect the generative trajectory in latent space, making the reconstructed image statistically decoupled from the original watermark-embedded trajectory while preserving strong visual quality and semantic consistency. Extensive experiments on nine representative watermarking methods spanning noise-space, frequency-domain, and optimization-based paradigms show that SHIFT achieves 95%--100% attack success rates with nearly no loss in semantic quality, without requiring any watermark-specific knowledge or model retraining.
NES: An Instruction-Free, Low-Latency Next Edit Suggestion Framework Powered by Learned Historical Editing Trajectories	2026-04-01	Show Code editing is a frequent yet cognitively demanding task in software development. Existing AI-powered tools often disrupt developer flow by requiring explicit natural language instructions and suffer from high latency, limiting real-world usability. We present NES (Next Edit Suggestion), an instruction-free, low-latency code editing framework that leverages learned historical editing trajectories to implicitly capture developers' goals and coding habits. NES features a dual-model architecture: one model predicts the next edit location and the other generates the precise code change, both without any user instruction. Trained on our open-sourced SFT and DAPO datasets, NES achieves state-of-the-art performance (75.6% location accuracy, 27.7% exact match rate) while delivering suggestions in under 250ms. Deployed at Ant Group, NES serves over 20,000 developers through a seamless Tab-key interaction, achieving effective acceptance rates of 51.55% for location predictions and 43.44% for edits, demonstrating its practical impact in real-world development workflows.	Accep... Accepted by FSE'26 Industry Track
The Indirect Method for Generating Libraries of Optimal Periodic Trajectories and Its Application to Economical Bipedal Walking	2026-04-01	Show Trajectory optimization is an essential tool for generating efficient, dynamically consistent gaits in legged locomotion. This paper explores the indirect method of trajectory optimization, emphasizing its application in creating optimal periodic gaits for legged systems and contrasting it with the more common direct method. While the direct method provides flexibility in implementation, it is limited by its need for an input space parameterization. In contrast, the indirect method improves accuracy by computing the control input from states and costates obtained along the optimal trajectory. In this work, we tackle the convergence challenges associated with indirect shooting methods by utilizing numerical continuation methods. This is particularly useful for the systematic development of gait libraries. Our contributions include: (1) the formalization of a general periodic trajectory optimization problem that extends existing first-order necessary conditions to a broader range of cost functions and operating conditions; (2) a methodology for efficiently generating libraries of optimal trajectories (gaits) utilizing a single shooting approach combined with numerical continuation methods; (3) a novel approach for reconstructing Lagrange multipliers and costates from passive gaits; (4) a comparative analysis of the indirect and direct shooting methods using a compass-gait walker as a case study, demonstrating the improved accuracy of the indirect method in generating optimal gaits; and (5) demonstrating applicability to the more complex legged robot RABBIT, with ten dynamic states and four inputs. The findings underscore the potential of the indirect method for generating families of optimal gaits, thereby advancing the field of trajectory optimization in legged robotics.	submi... submitted to the International Journal of Robotics Research (IJRR)
Toward Physically Consistent Driving Video World Models under Challenging Trajectories	2026-04-01	Show Video generation models have shown strong potential as world models for autonomous driving simulation. However, existing approaches are primarily trained on real-world driving datasets, which mostly contain natural and safe driving scenarios. As a result, current models often fail when conditioned on challenging or counterfactual trajectories-such as imperfect trajectories generated by simulators or planning systems-producing videos with severe physical inconsistencies and artifacts. To address this limitation, we propose PhyGenesis, a world model designed to generate driving videos with high visual fidelity and strong physical consistency. Our framework consists of two key components: (1) a physical condition generator that transforms potentially invalid trajectory inputs into physically plausible conditions, and (2) a physics-enhanced video generator that produces high-fidelity multi-view driving videos under these conditions. To effectively train these components, we construct a large-scale, physics-rich heterogeneous dataset. Specifically, in addition to real-world driving videos, we generate diverse challenging driving scenarios using the CARLA simulator, from which we derive supervision signals that guide the model to learn physically grounded dynamics under extreme conditions. This challenging-trajectory learning strategy enables trajectory correction and promotes physically consistent video generation. Extensive experiments demonstrate that PhyGenesis consistently outperforms state-of-the-art methods, especially on challenging trajectories. Our project page is available at: https://wm-research.github.io/PhyGenesis/.
TRIMS: Trajectory-Ranked Instruction Masked Supervision for Diffusion Language Models	2026-04-01	Show Diffusion language models (DLMs) offer a promising path toward low-latency generation through parallel decoding, but their practical efficiency depends heavily on the decoding trajectory. In practice, this advantage often fails to fully materialize because standard training does not provide explicit supervision over token reveal order, creating a train-inference mismatch that leads to suboptimal decoding behavior. We propose Trajectory-Ranked Instruction Masked Supervision (TRIMS), a simple trajectory-guided supervised fine-tuning framework that injects trajectory supervision into standard Masked Diffusion Language Model (MDLM) training with minimal overhead. Instead of relying on costly DLM-based distillation, TRIMS uses lightweight signals from an autoregressive teacher to guide a trajectory-aware masking strategy, encouraging the model to learn more effective decoding orders. Experiments on LLaDA and Dream across math and coding benchmarks show that TRIMS significantly improves the accuracy-parallelism trade-off over both standard MDLM training and train-free acceleration baselines, while achieving competitive performance with prior distillation-based approaches at substantially lower training cost. Further analysis shows that TRIMS leads to better decoding trajectories, validating the effectiveness of trajectory-guided supervision for DLMs.	10 pa... 10 pages, 7 figures, 1 algorithm
COTTA: Context-Aware Transfer Adaptation for Trajectory Prediction in Autonomous Driving	2026-04-01	Show Developing robust models to accurately predict the trajectories of surrounding agents is fundamental to autonomous driving safety. However, most public datasets, such as the Waymo Open Motion Dataset and Argoverse, are collected in Western road environments and do not reflect the unique traffic patterns, infrastructure, and driving behaviors of other regions, including South Korea. This domain discrepancy leads to performance degradation when state-of-the-art models trained on Western data are deployed in different geographic contexts. In this work, we investigate the adaptability of Query-Centric Trajectory Prediction (QCNet) when transferred from U.S.-based data to Korean road environments. Using a Korean autonomous driving dataset, we compare four training strategies: zero-shot transfer, training from scratch, full fine-tuning, and encoder freezing. Experimental results demonstrate that leveraging pretrained knowledge significantly improves prediction performance. Specifically, selectively fine-tuning the decoder while freezing the encoder yields the best trade-off between accuracy and training efficiency, reducing prediction error by over 66% compared to training from scratch. This study provides practical insights into effective transfer learning strategies for deploying trajectory prediction models in new geographic domains.	4 pag... 4 pages, 2 figures. Accepted at ICEIC 2026
Behavioral Score Diffusion: Model-Free Trajectory Planning via Kernel-Based Score Estimation from Data	2026-04-01	Show Diffusion-based trajectory optimization has emerged as a powerful planning paradigm, but existing methods require either learned score networks trained on large datasets or analytical dynamics models for score computation. We introduce \emph{Behavioral Score Diffusion} (BSD), a training-free and model-free trajectory planner that computes the diffusion score function directly from a library of trajectory data via kernel-weighted estimation. At each denoising step, BSD retrieves relevant trajectories using a triple-kernel weighting scheme -- diffusion proximity, state context, and goal relevance -- and computes a Nadaraya-Watson estimate of the denoised trajectory. The diffusion noise schedule naturally controls kernel bandwidths, creating a multi-scale nonparametric regression: broad averaging of global behavioral patterns at high noise, fine-grained local interpolation at low noise. This coarse-to-fine structure handles nonlinear dynamics without linearization or parametric assumptions. Safety is preserved by applying shielded rollout on kernel-estimated state trajectories, identical to existing model-based approaches. We evaluate BSD on four robotic systems of increasing complexity (3D--6D state spaces) in a parking scenario. BSD with fixed bandwidth achieves 98.5% of the model-based baseline's average reward across systems while requiring no dynamics model, using only 1{,}000 pre-collected trajectories. BSD substantially outperforms nearest-neighbor retrieval (18--63% improvement), confirming that the diffusion denoising mechanism is essential for effective data-driven planning.
Signals: Trajectory Sampling and Triage for Agentic Interactions	2026-04-01	Show Agentic applications based on large language models increasingly rely on multi-step interaction loops involving planning, action execution, and environment feedback. While such systems are now deployed at scale, improving them post-deployment remains challenging. Agent trajectories are voluminous and non-deterministic, and reviewing each one, whether through human review or auxiliary LLMs, is slow and cost-prohibitive. We propose a lightweight, signal-based framework for triaging agentic interaction trajectories. Our approach computes cheap, broadly applicable signals from live interactions and attaches them as structured attributes for trajectory triage, identifying interactions likely to be informative without affecting online agent behavior. We organize signals into a coarse-grained taxonomy spanning interaction (misalignment, stagnation, disengagement, satisfaction), execution (failure, loop), and environment (exhaustion), designed for computation without model calls. In a controlled annotation study on $τ$-bench, a widely used benchmark for tool-augmented agent evaluation, we show that signal-based sampling achieves an 82% informativeness rate compared to 74% for heuristic filtering and 54% for random sampling, with a 1.52x efficiency gain per informative trajectory. The advantage is robust across reward strata and task domains, confirming that signals provide genuine per-trajectory informativeness gains rather than merely oversampling obvious failures. These results show that lightweight signals can serve as practical sampling infrastructure for agentic systems, and suggest a path toward preference data construction and post-deployment optimization.
C-TRAIL: A Commonsense World Framework for Trajectory Planning in Autonomous Driving	2026-03-31	Show Trajectory planning for autonomous driving increasingly leverages large language models (LLMs) for commonsense reasoning, yet LLM outputs are inherently unreliable, posing risks in safety-critical applications. We propose C-TRAIL, a framework built on a Commonsense World that couples LLM-derived commonsense with a trust mechanism to guide trajectory planning. C-TRAIL operates through a closed-loop Recall, Plan, and Update cycle: the Recall module queries an LLM for semantic relations and quantifies their reliability via a dual-trust mechanism; the Plan module injects trust-weighted commonsense into Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) through a Dirichlet trust policy; and the Update module adaptively refines trust scores and policy parameters from environmental feedback. Experiments on four simulated scenarios in Highway-env and two real-world levelXData datasets (highD, rounD) show that C-TRAIL consistently outperforms state-of-the-art baselines, reducing ADE by 40.2%, FDE by 51.7%, and improving SR by 16.9 percentage points on average. The source code is available at https://github.com/ZhihongCui/CTRAIL.
Uncertainty-Aware Trajectory Prediction: A Unified Framework Harnessing Positional and Semantic Uncertainties	2026-03-31	Show Trajectory prediction seeks to forecast the future motion of dynamic entities, such as vehicles and pedestrians, given a temporal horizon of historical movement data and environmental context. A central challenge in this domain is the inherent uncertainty in real-time maps, arising from two primary sources: (1) positional inaccuracies due to sensor limitations or environmental occlusions, and (2) semantic errors stemming from misinterpretations of scene context. To address these challenges, we propose a novel unified framework that jointly models positional and semantic uncertainties and explicitly integrates them into the trajectory prediction pipeline. Our approach employs a dual-head architecture to independently estimate semantic and positional predictions in a dual-pass manner, deriving prediction variances as uncertainty indicators in an end-to-end fashion. These uncertainties are subsequently fused with the semantic and positional predictions to enhance the robustness of trajectory forecasts. We evaluate our uncertainty-aware framework on the nuScenes real-world driving dataset, conducting extensive experiments across four map estimation methods and two trajectory prediction baselines. Results verify that our method (1) effectively quantifies map uncertainties through both positional and semantic dimensions, and (2) consistently improves the performance of existing trajectory prediction models across multiple metrics, including minimum Average Displacement Error (minADE), minimum Final Displacement Error (minFDE), and Miss Rate (MR). Code will available at https://github.com/JT-Sun/UATP.	13 pa... 13 pages, 7 figures, 4 tables
Self-Consistency for LLM-Based Motion Trajectory Generation and Verification	2026-03-31	Show Self-consistency has proven to be an effective technique for improving LLM performance on natural language reasoning tasks in a lightweight, unsupervised manner. In this work, we study how to adapt self-consistency to visual domains. Specifically, we consider the generation and verification of LLM-produced motion graphics trajectories. Given a prompt (e.g., "Move the circle in a spiral path"), we first sample diverse motion trajectories from an LLM, and then identify groups of consistent trajectories via clustering. Our key insight is to model the family of shapes associated with a prompt as a prototype trajectory paired with a group of geometric transformations (e.g., rigid, similarity, and affine). Two trajectories can then be considered consistent if one can be transformed into the other under the warps allowable by the transformation group. We propose an algorithm that automatically recovers a shape family, using hierarchical relationships between a set of candidate transformation groups. Our approach improves the accuracy of LLM-based trajectory generation by 4-6%. We further extend our method to support verification, observing 11% precision gains over VLM baselines. Our code and dataset are available at https://majiaju.io/trajectory-self-consistency .	Accep... Accepted to CVPR 2026
Towards High-Consistency Embodied World Model with Multi-View Trajectory Videos	2026-03-31	Show Embodied world models aim to predict and interact with the physical world through visual observations and actions. However, existing models struggle to accurately translate low-level actions (e.g., joint positions) into precise robotic movements in predicted frames, leading to inconsistencies with real-world physical interactions. To address these limitations, we propose MTV-World, an embodied world model that introduces Multi-view Trajectory-Video control for precise visuomotor prediction. Specifically, instead of directly using low-level actions for control, we employ trajectory videos obtained through camera intrinsic and extrinsic parameters and Cartesian-space transformation as control signals. However, projecting 3D raw actions onto 2D images inevitably causes a loss of spatial information, making a single view insufficient for accurate interaction modeling. To overcome this, we introduce a multi-view framework that compensates for spatial information loss and ensures high-consistency with physical world. MTV-World forecasts future frames based on multi-view trajectory videos as input and conditioning on an initial frame per view. Furthermore, to systematically evaluate both robotic motion precision and object interaction accuracy, we develop an auto-evaluation pipeline leveraging multimodal large models and referring video object segmentation models. To measure spatial consistency, we formulate it as an object location matching problem and adopt the Jaccard Index as the evaluation metric. Extensive experiments demonstrate that MTV-World achieves precise control execution and accurate physical interaction modeling in complex dual-arm scenarios.	12 pages, 5 figures
Trace2Skill: Distill Trajectory-Local Lessons into Transferable Agent Skills	2026-03-31	Show Equipping Large Language Model (LLM) agents with domain-specific skills is critical for tackling complex tasks. Yet, manual authoring creates a severe scalability bottleneck. Conversely, automated skill generation often yields fragile or fragmented results because it either relies on shallow parametric knowledge or sequentially overfits to non-generalizable trajectory-local lessons. To overcome this, we introduce Trace2Skill, a framework that mirrors how human experts author skills: by holistically analyzing broad execution experience before distilling it into a single, comprehensive guide. Instead of reacting sequentially to individual trajectories, Trace2Skill dispatches a parallel fleet of sub-agents to analyze a diverse pool of executions. It extracts trajectory-specific lessons and hierarchically consolidates them into a unified, conflict-free skill directory via inductive reasoning. Trace2Skill supports both deepening existing human-written skills and creating new ones from scratch. Experiments in challenging domains, such as spreadsheet, VisionQA and math reasoning, show that Trace2Skill significantly improves upon strong baselines, including Anthropic's official xlsx skills. Crucially, this trajectory-grounded evolution does not merely memorize task instances or model-specific quirks: evolved skills transfer across LLM scales and generalize to OOD settings. For example, skills evolved by Qwen3.5-35B on its own trajectories improved a Qwen3.5-122B agent by up to 57.65 absolute percentage points on WikiTableQuestions. Ultimately, our results demonstrate that complex agent experience can be packaged into highly transferable, declarative skills -- requiring no parameter updates, no external retrieval modules, and utilizing open-source models as small as 35B parameters.	Work in Progress
Differential Privacy for Symbolic Trajectories via the Permute-and-Flip Mechanism	2026-03-30	Show Privacy techniques have been developed for data-driven systems, but systems with non-numeric data cannot use typical noise-adding techniques. Therefore, we develop a new mechanism for privatizing state trajectories of symbolic systems that may be represented as words over a finite alphabet. Such systems include Markov chains, Markov decision processes, and finite-state automata, and we protect their symbolic trajectories with differential privacy. The mechanism we develop randomly selects a private approximation to be released in place of the original sensitive word, with a bias towards low-error private words. This work is based on the permute-and-flip mechanism for differential privacy, which can be applied to non-numeric data. However, a naïve implementation would have to enumerate an exponentially large list of words to generate a private word. As a result, we develop a new mechanism that generates private words without ever needing to enumerate such a list. We prove that the accuracy of our mechanism is never worse than the prior state of the art, and we empirically show on a real traffic dataset that it introduces up to $55%$ less error than the prior state of the art under a conventional privacy implementation.	9 Pages, 5 Figures
Learning to Retrieve from Agent Trajectories	2026-03-30	Show Information retrieval (IR) systems have traditionally been designed and trained for human users, with learning-to-rank methods relying heavily on large-scale human interaction logs such as clicks and dwell time. With the rapid emergence of large language model (LLM) powered search agents, however, retrieval is increasingly consumed by agents rather than human beings, and is embedded as a core component within multi-turn reasoning and action loops. In this setting, retrieval models trained under human-centric assumptions exhibit a fundamental mismatch with the way agents issue queries and consume results. In this work, we argue that retrieval models for agentic search should be trained directly from agent interaction data. We introduce learning to retrieve from agent trajectories as a new training paradigm, where supervision is derived from multi-step agent interactions. Through a systematic analysis of search agent trajectories, we identify key behavioral signals that reveal document utility, including browsing actions, unbrowsed rejections, and post-browse reasoning traces. Guided by these insights, we propose LRAT, a simple yet effective framework that mines high-quality retrieval supervision from agent trajectories and incorporates relevance intensity through weighted optimization. Extensive experiments on both in-domain and out-of-domain deep research benchmarks demonstrate that retrievers trained with LRAT consistently improve evidence recall, end-to-end task success, and execution efficiency across diverse agent architectures and scales. Our results highlight agent trajectories as a practical and scalable supervision source, pointing to a promising direction for retrieval in the era of agentic search.
Mapping data literacy trajectories in K-12 education	2026-03-30	Show Data literacy skills are fundamental in computer science education. However, understanding how data-driven systems work represents a paradigm shift from traditional rule-based programming. We conducted a systematic literature review of 84 studies to understand K-12 learners' engagement with data across disciplines and contexts. We propose the data paradigms framework that categorises learning activities along two dimensions: (i) logic (knowledge-based or data-driven systems), and (ii) explainability (transparent or opaque models). We further apply the notion of learning trajectories to visualize the pathways learners follow across these distinct paradigms. We detail four distinct trajectories as a provocation for researchers and educators to reflect on how the notion of data literacy varies depending on the learning context. We suggest these trajectories could be useful to those concerned with the design of data literacy learning environments within and beyond CS education.	Prese... Presented at the Data Literacy for the 21st Century: Perspectives from Visualization, Cognitive Science, Artificial Intelligence, and Education CHI '26 workshop
Reasoning as Energy Minimization over Structured Latent Trajectories	2026-03-30	Show Single-shot neural decoders commit to answers without iterative refinement, while chain-of-thought methods introduce discrete intermediate steps but lack a scalar measure of reasoning progress. We propose Energy-Based Reasoning via Structured Latent Planning (EBRM), which models reasoning as gradient-based optimization of a multi-step latent trajectory $z_{1:T}$ under a learned energy function $E(h_x, z)$. The energy decomposes into per-step compatibility, transition consistency, and trajectory smoothness terms. Training combines supervised encoder-decoder learning with contrastive energy shaping using hard negatives, while inference performs gradient descent or Langevin dynamics over $z$ and decodes from $z_T$. We identify a critical failure mode: on CNF logic satisfaction, latent planning reduces accuracy from $\approx 95%$ to $\approx 56%$. This degradation arises from a distribution mismatch, where the decoder is trained on encoder outputs $h_x$ but evaluated on planner outputs $z_T$ that drift into unseen latent regions. We analyze this behavior through per-step decoding, latent drift tracking, and gradient decomposition. To address it, we propose dual-path decoder training and latent anchoring. We further introduce a six-part ablation protocol covering component contributions, trajectory length, planner dynamics, initialization, decoder training distribution, and anchor weight. Experiments on three synthetic tasks show that energy decreases monotonically and induces structured latent trajectories on graph and logic tasks, while remaining flat on arithmetic ($r = 0.073$), indicating a negative result. Code is available at https://github.com/dkjo8/ebr-via-structured-latent-planning.	7 pages
From Vessel Trajectories to Safety-Critical Encounter Scenarios: A Generative AI Framework for Autonomous Ship Digital Testing	2026-03-30	Show Digital testing has emerged as a key paradigm for the development and verification of autonomous maritime navigation systems, yet the availability of realistic and diverse safety-critical encounter scenarios remains limited. Existing approaches either rely on handcrafted templates, which lack realism, or extract cases directly from historical data, which cannot systematically expand rare high-risk situations. This paper proposes a data-driven framework that converts large-scale Automatic Identification System (AIS) trajectories into structured safety-critical encounter scenarios. The framework combines generative trajectory modeling with automated encounter pairing and temporal parameterization to enable scalable scenario construction while preserving real traffic characteristics. To enhance trajectory realism and robustness under noisy AIS observations, a multi-scale temporal variational autoencoder is introduced to capture vessel motion dynamics across different temporal resolutions. Experiments on real-world maritime traffic flows demonstrate that the proposed method improves trajectory fidelity and smoothness, maintains statistical consistency with observed data, and enables the generation of diverse safety-critical encounter scenarios beyond those directly recorded. The resulting framework provides a practical pathway for building scenario libraries to support digital testing, benchmarking, and safety assessment of autonomous navigation and intelligent maritime traffic management systems. Code is available at https://anonymous.4open.science/r/traj-gen-anonymous-review.	8 pag... 8 pages, submit for review
Inference-time Trajectory Optimization for Manga Image Editing	2026-03-29	Show We present an inference-time adaptation method that tailors a pretrained image editing model to each input manga image using only the input image itself. Despite recent progress in pretrained image editing, such models often underperform on manga because they are trained predominantly on natural-image data. Re-training or fine-tuning large-scale models on manga is, however, generally impractical due to both computational cost and copyright constraints. To address this issue, our method slightly corrects the generation trajectory at inference time so that the input image can be reconstructed more faithfully under an empty prompt. Experimental results show that our method consistently outperforms existing baselines while incurring only negligible computational overhead.
ReTrack: Data Unlearning in Diffusion Models through Redirecting the Denoising Trajectory	2026-03-29	Show Diffusion models excel at generating high-quality, diverse images but suffer from training data memorization, raising critical privacy and safety concerns. Data unlearning has emerged to mitigate this issue by removing the influence of specific data without retraining from scratch. We propose ReTrack, a fast and effective data unlearning method for diffusion models. ReTrack employs importance sampling to construct a more efficient fine-tuning loss, which we approximate by retaining only dominant terms. This yields an interpretable objective that redirects denoising trajectories toward the $k$-nearest neighbors, enabling efficient unlearning while preserving generative quality. Experiments on MNIST T-Shirt, CelebA-HQ, CIFAR-10, and Stable Diffusion show that ReTrack achieves state-of-the-art performance, striking the best trade-off between unlearning strength and generation quality preservation.	22 pa... 22 pages, 12 figures, accepted by AISTATS 2026
Expert Streaming: Accelerating Low-Batch MoE Inference via Multi-chiplet Architecture and Dynamic Expert Trajectory Scheduling	2026-03-29	Show Mixture-of-Experts is a promising approach for edge AI with low-batch inference. Yet, on-device deployments often face limited on-chip memory and severe workload imbalance; the prevalent use of offloading further incurs off-chip memory access bottlenecks. Moreover, MoE sparsity and dynamic gating shift distributed strategies toward much finer granularity and introduce runtime scheduling considerations. Recently, high die-to-die bandwidth chiplet interconnects have created new opportunities for multi-chiplet systems to address workload imbalance and offloading bottlenecks with fine-grained scheduling. In this paper, we propose Fully Sharded Expert Data Parallelism, a parallelization paradigm specifically architected for low-batch MoE inference on multi-chiplet accelerators. FSE-DP attains adaptive computation-communication overlap and balanced load by orchestrating fine-grained, complementary expert streams along dynamic trajectories across high-bandwidth D2D links. The attendant dataflow complexity is tamed by a minimal, hardware-amenable set of virtualization rules and a lightweight scheduling algorithm. Our approach achieves 1.22 to 2.00 times speedup over state-of-the-art baselines and saves up to 78.8 percent on-chip memory.
CLEAR: A Knowledge-Centric Vessel Trajectory Analysis Platform	2026-03-28	Show Vessel trajectory data from the Automatic Identification System (AIS) is used widely in maritime analytics. Yet, analysis is difficult for non-expert users due to the incompleteness and complexity of AIS data. We present CLEAR, a knowledge-centric vessel trajectory analysis platform that aims to overcome these barriers. By leveraging the reasoning and generative capabilities of Large Language Models (LLMs), CLEAR transforms raw AIS data into complete, interpretable, and easily explorable vessel trajectories through a Structured Data-derived Knowledge Graph (SD-KG). As part of the demo, participants can configure parameters to automatically download and process AIS data, observe how trajectories are completed and annotated, inspect both raw and imputed segments together with their SD-KG evidence, and interactively explore the SD-KG through a dedicated graph viewer, gaining an intuitive and transparent understanding of vessel movements.	4 pag... 4 pages, 5 figures. Accepted at SIGMOD 2026 Demo Track
Autonomous overtaking trajectory optimization using reinforcement learning and opponent pose estimation	2026-03-28	Show Vehicle overtaking is one of the most complex driving maneuvers for autonomous vehicles. To achieve optimal autonomous overtaking, driving systems rely on multiple sensors that enable safe trajectory optimization and overtaking efficiency. This paper presents a reinforcement learning mechanism for multi-agent autonomous racing environments, enabling overtaking trajectory optimization, based on LiDAR and depth image data. The developed reinforcement learning agent uses pre-generated raceline data and sensor inputs to compute the steering angle and linear velocity for optimal overtaking. The system uses LiDAR with a 2D detection algorithm and a depth camera with YOLO-based object detection to identify the vehicle to be overtaken and its pose. The LiDAR and the depth camera detection data are fused using a UKF for improved opponent pose estimation and trajectory optimization for overtaking in racing scenarios. The results show that the proposed algorithm successfully performs overtaking maneuvers in both simulation and real-world experiments, with pose estimation RMSE of (0.0816, 0.0531) m in (x, y).	The p... The paper is accepted and presented on the 35th International Conference on Robotics in Alpe-Adria-Danube Region, RAAD 2026, Bratislava, Slovakia
Mimic Intent, Not Just Trajectories	2026-03-28	Show While imitation learning (IL) has achieved impressive success in dexterous manipulation through generative modeling and pretraining, state-of-the-art approaches like Vision-Language-Action (VLA) models still struggle with adaptation to environmental changes and skill transfer. We argue this stems from mimicking raw trajectories without understanding the underlying intent. To address this, we propose explicitly disentangling behavior intent from execution details in end-2-end IL: Mimic Intent, Not just Trajectories(MINT). We achieve this via multi-scale frequency-space tokenization, which enforces a spectral decomposition of action chunk representation. We learn action tokens with a multi-scale coarse-to-fine structure, and force the coarsest token to capture low-frequency global structure and finer tokens to encode high-frequency details. This yields an abstract Intent token that facilitates planning and transfer, and multi-scale Execution tokens that enable precise adaptation to environmental dynamics. Building on this hierarchy, our policy generates trajectories through next-scale autoregression, performing progressive intent-to-execution reasoning, thus boosting learning efficiency and generalization. Crucially, this disentanglement enables one-shot transfer of skills, by simply injecting the Intent token from a demonstration into the autoregressive generation process. Experiments on several manipulation benchmarks and on a real robot demonstrate state-of-the-art success rates, superior inference efficiency, robust generalization against disturbances, and effective one-shot transfer.
Koopman Operator Identification of Model Parameter Trajectories for Temporal Domain Generalization (KOMET)	2026-03-27	Show Parametric models deployed in non-stationary environments degrade as the underlying data distribution evolves over time (a phenomenon known as temporal domain drift). In the current work, we present KOMET (Koopman Operator identification of Model parameter Evolution under Temporal drift), a model-agnostic, data-driven framework that treats the sequence of trained parameter vectors as the trajectory of a nonlinear dynamical system and identifies its governing linear operator via Extended Dynamic Mode Decomposition (EDMD). A warm-start sequential training protocol enforces parameter-trajectory smoothness, and a Fourier-augmented observable dictionary exploits the periodic structure inherent in many real-world distribution drifts. Once identified, KOMET's Koopman operator predicts future parameter trajectories autonomously, without access to future labeled data, enabling zero-retraining adaptation at deployment. Evaluated on six datasets spanning rotating, oscillating, and expanding distribution geometries, KOMET achieves mean autonomous-rollout accuracies between 0.981 and 1.000 over 100 held-out time steps. Spectral and coupling analyses further reveal interpretable dynamical structure consistent with the geometry of the drifting decision boundary.
Think over Trajectories: Leveraging Video Generation to Reconstruct GPS Trajectories from Cellular Signaling	2026-03-27	Show Mobile devices continuously interact with cellular base stations, generating massive volumes of signaling records that provide broad coverage for understanding human mobility. However, such records offer only coarse location cues (e.g., serving-cell identifiers) and therefore limit their direct use in applications that require high-precision GPS trajectories. This paper studies the Sig2GPS problem: reconstructing GPS trajectories from cellular signaling. Inspired by domain experts often lay the signaling trace on the map and sketch the corresponding GPS route, unlike conventional solutions that rely on complex multi-stage engineering pipelines or regress coordinates, Sig2GPS is reframed as an image-to-video generation task that directly operates in the map-visual domain: signaling traces are rendered on a map, and a video generation model is trained to draw a continuous GPS path. To support this paradigm, a paired signaling-to-trajectory video dataset is constructed to fine-tune an open-source video model, and a trajectory-aware reinforcement learning-based optimization method is introduced to improve generation fidelity via rewards. Experiments on large-scale real-world datasets show substantial improvements over strong engineered and learning-based baselines, while additional results on next GPS prediction indicate scalability and cross-city transferability. Overall, these results suggest that map-visual video generation provides a practical interface for trajectory data mining by enabling direct generation and refinement of continuous paths under map constraints.
Modeling Cell Developmental Trajectory using Multinomial Unbalanced Optimal Transport	2026-03-27	Show Single-cell trajectory analysis aims to reconstruct the biological developmental processes of cells as they evolve over time, leveraging temporal correlations in gene expression. During cellular development, gene expression patterns typically change and vary across different cell types. A significant challenge in this analysis is that RNA sequencing destroys the cell, making it impossible to track gene expression across multiple stages for the same cell. Recent advances have introduced the use of optimal transport tools to model the trajectory of individual cells. In this paper, our focus shifts to a question of greater practical importance: we examine the differentiation of cell types over time. Specifically, we propose a novel method based on discrete unbalanced optimal transport to model the developmental trajectory of cell types. Our method detects biological changes in cell types and infers their transitions to different states by analyzing the transport matrix. We validated our method using single-cell RNA sequencing data from mouse embryonic fibroblasts. The results accurately identified major developmental changes in cell types, which were corroborated by experimental evidence. Furthermore, the inferred transition probabilities between cell types are highly congruent to biological ground truth.
CLARITY: Medical World Model for Guiding Treatment Decisions by Modeling Context-Aware Disease Trajectories in Latent Space	2026-03-27	Show Clinical decision-making in oncology requires predicting dynamic disease evolution, a task current static AI predictors cannot perform. While world models (WMs) offer a paradigm for generative prediction, existing medical applications remain limited. Existing methods often rely on stochastic diffusion models, focusing on visual reconstruction rather than causal, physiological transitions. Furthermore, in medical domain, models like MeWM typically ignore patient-specific temporal and clinical contexts and lack a feedback mechanism to link predictions to treatment decisions. To address these gaps, we introduce CLARITY, a medical world model that forecasts disease evolution directly within a structured latent space. It explicitly integrates time intervals (temporal context) and patient-specific data (clinical context) to model treatment-conditioned progression as a smooth, interpretable trajectory, and thus generate physiologically faithful, individualized treatment plans. Finally, CLARITY introduces a novel prediction-to-decision framework, translating latent rollouts into transparent, actionable recommendations. CLARITY demonstrates state-of-the-art performance in treatment planning. On the MU-Glioma-Post dataset, our approach outperforms recent MeWM by 12%, and significantly surpasses all other medical-specific large language models.
DTP-Attack: A decision-based black-box adversarial attack on trajectory prediction	2026-03-27	Show Trajectory prediction systems are critical for autonomous vehicle safety, yet remain vulnerable to adversarial attacks that can cause catastrophic traffic behavior misinterpretations. Existing attack methods require white-box access with gradient information and rely on rigid physical constraints, limiting real-world applicability. We propose DTP-Attack, a decision-based black-box adversarial attack framework tailored for trajectory prediction systems. Our method operates exclusively on binary decision outputs without requiring model internals or gradients, making it practical for real-world scenarios. DTP-Attack employs a novel boundary walking algorithm that navigates adversarial regions without fixed constraints, naturally maintaining trajectory realism through proximity preservation. Unlike existing approaches, our method supports both intention misclassification attacks and prediction accuracy degradation. Extensive evaluation on nuScenes and Apolloscape datasets across state-of-the-art models including Trajectron++ and Grip++ demonstrates superior performance. DTP-Attack achieves 41 - 81% attack success rates for intention misclassification attacks that manipulate perceived driving maneuvers with perturbations below 0.45 m, and increases prediction errors by 1.9 - 4.2 for accuracy degradation. Our method consistently outperforms existing black-box approaches while maintaining high controllability and reliability across diverse scenarios. These results reveal fundamental vulnerabilities in current trajectory prediction systems, highlighting urgent needs for robust defenses in safety-critical autonomous driving applications.	ICRA 2026
CACTO-SL: Using Sobolev Learning to improve Continuous Actor-Critic with Trajectory Optimization	2026-03-27	Show Trajectory Optimization (TO) and Reinforcement Learning (RL) are powerful and complementary tools to solve optimal control problems. On the one hand, TO can efficiently compute locally-optimal solutions, but it tends to get stuck in local minima if the problem is not convex. On the other hand, RL is typically less sensitive to non-convexity, but it requires a much higher computational effort. Recently, we have proposed CACTO (Continuous Actor-Critic with Trajectory Optimization), an algorithm that uses TO to guide the exploration of an actor-critic RL algorithm. In turns, the policy encoded by the actor is used to warm-start TO, closing the loop between TO and RL. In this work, we present an extension of CACTO exploiting the idea of Sobolev learning. To make the training of the critic network faster and more data efficient, we enrich it with the gradient of the Value function, computed via a backward pass of the differential dynamic programming algorithm. Our results show that the new algorithm is more efficient than the original CACTO, reducing the number of TO episodes by a factor ranging from 3 to 10, and consequently the computation time. Moreover, we show that CACTO-SL helps TO to find better minima and to produce more consistent results.
Shuffles of Context-Free Languages along Regular Trajectories	2026-03-27	Show In single-core processors, when multiple processes execute concurrently, they are, in practice, intertwined by a scheduler as a single thread of execution. The language-theoretic operation that corresponds to this is the shuffle of two languages: in general, this is defined as the set of words obtained by interleaving words from the first and second language in an arbitrary fashion. It is well known that regular languages are closed under shuffles, while context-free languages (CFL) are not. Following an established line of research, this paper considers shufflings according to regular "trajectories", that is, subject to scheduling constraints expressed by an automaton. Unsurprisingly, some trajectories, such as "a word from the first language first, then a word from the second", allow for CFLs to be shuffled into CFLs, while some other trajectories do not. This paper provides a robust toolset to show that a given trajectory would always shuffle two nonregular CFLs into a nonCFL. In the case of deterministic CFLs (DCFLs), a salient trichotomy of trajectories depending on how they shuffle DCFLs is provided. These results are based on intricate expressiveness lemmas for CFLs and DCFLs of independent interest, the latter lemma relying on a recent result of Jančar and Šíma (MFCS'2021).
Entropy trajectory shape predicts LLM reasoning reliability: A diagnostic study of uncertainty dynamics in chain-of-thought	2026-03-27	Show Understanding uncertainty in chain-of-thought reasoning is critical for reliable deployment of large language models. In this work, we propose a simple yet effective diagnostic approach based on trajectory shape rather than scalar magnitude. We show that this signal is practical, interpretable, and inexpensive to obtain in black-box settings, while remaining robust across models and datasets. Through extensive ablations and cross-domain replications, we demonstrate its utility for selective prediction and triage. Our findings offer a generalizable insight into uncertainty dynamics in reasoning tasks, with particular focus on numeric and discrete-answer settings.
Beyond Where to Look: Trajectory-Guided Reinforcement Learning for Multimodal RLVR	2026-03-27	Show Recent advances in Reinforcement Learning with Verifiable Rewards (RLVR) for multimodal large language models (MLLMs) have mainly focused on improving final answer correctness and strengthening visual grounding. However, a critical bottleneck remains: although models can attend to relevant visual regions, they often fail to effectively incorporate visual evidence into subsequent reasoning, leading to reasoning chains that are weakly grounded in visual facts. To address this issue, we propose Trajectory-Guided Reinforcement Learning (TGRL), which guides the policy model to integrate visual evidence into fine-grained reasoning processes using expert reasoning trajectories from stronger models. We further introduce token-level reweighting and trajectory filtering to ensure stable and effective policy optimization. Extensive experiments on multiple multimodal reasoning benchmarks demonstrate that TGRL consistently improves reasoning performance and effectively bridges the gap between visual perception and logical reasoning.
DiReCT: Disentangled Regularization of Contrastive Trajectories for Physics-Refined Video Generation	2026-03-26	Show Flow-matching video generators produce temporally coherent, high-fidelity outputs yet routinely violate elementary physics because their reconstruction objectives penalize per-frame deviations without distinguishing physically consistent dynamics from impossible ones. Contrastive flow matching offers a principled remedy by pushing apart velocity-field trajectories of differing conditions, but we identify a fundamental obstacle in the text-conditioned video setting: semantic-physics entanglement. Because natural-language prompts couple scene content with physical behavior, naive negative sampling draws conditions whose velocity fields largely overlap with the positive sample's, causing the contrastive gradient to directly oppose the flow-matching objective. We formalize this gradient conflict, deriving a precise alignment condition that reveals when contrastive learning helps versus harms training. Guided by this analysis, we introduce DiReCT (Disentangled Regularization of Contrastive Trajectories), a lightweight post-training framework that decomposes the contrastive signal into two complementary scales: a macro-contrastive term that draws partition-exclusive negatives from semantically distant regions for interference-free global trajectory separation, and a micro-contrastive term that constructs hard negatives sharing full scene semantics with the positive sample but differing along a single, LLM-perturbed axis of physical behavior; spanning kinematics, forces, materials, interactions, and magnitudes. A velocity-space distributional regularizer helps to prevent catastrophic forgetting of pretrained visual quality. When applied to Wan 2.1-1.3B, our method improves the physical commonsense score on VideoPhy by 16.7% and 11.3% compared to the baseline and SFT, respectively, without increasing training time.

Graph Neural Networks

Title	Date	Abstract	Comment
Graph Neural ODE Digital Twins for Control-Oriented Reactor Thermal-Hydraulic Forecasting Under Partial Observability	2026-04-08	Show Real-time supervisory control of advanced reactors requires accurate forecasting of plant-wide thermal-hydraulic states, including locations where physical sensors are unavailable. Meeting this need calls for surrogate models that combine predictive fidelity, millisecond-scale inference, and robustness to partial observability. In this work, we present a physics-informed message-passing Graph Neural Network coupled with a Neural Ordinary Differential Equation (GNN-ODE) to addresses all three requirements simultaneously. We represent the whole system as a directed sensor graph whose edges encode hydraulic connectivity through flow/heat transfer-aware message passing, and we advance the latent dynamics in continuous time via a controlled Neural ODE. A topology-guided missing-node initializer reconstructs uninstrumented states at rollout start; prediction then proceeds fully autoregressively. The GNN-ODE surrogate achieves satisfactory results for the system dynamics prediction. On held-out simulation transients, the surrogate achieves an average MAE of 0.91 K at 60 s and 2.18 K at 300 s for uninstrumented nodes, with $R^2$ up to 0.995 for missing-node state reconstruction. Inference runs at approximately 105 times faster than simulated time on a single GPU, enabling 64-member ensemble rollouts for uncertainty quantification. To assess sim-to-real transfer, we adapt the pretrained surrogate to experimental facility data using layerwise discriminative fine-tuning with only 30 training sequences. The learned flow-dependent heat-transfer scaling recovers a Reynolds-number exponent consistent with established correlations, indicating constitutive learning beyond trajectory fitting. The model tracks a steep power change transient and produces accurate trajectories at uninstrumented locations.
BadImplant: Injection-based Multi-Targeted Graph Backdoor Attack	2026-04-08	Show Graph neural network (GNN) have demonstrated exceptional performance in solving critical problems across diverse domains yet remain susceptible to backdoor attacks. Existing studies on backdoor attack for graph classification are limited to single target attack using subgraph replacement based mechanism where the attacker implants only one trigger into the GNN model. In this paper, we introduce the first multi-targeted backdoor attack for graph classification task, where multiple triggers simultaneously redirect predictions to different target labels. Instead of subgraph replacement, we propose subgraph injection which preserves the structure of the original graphs while poisoning the clean graphs. Extensive experiments demonstrate the efficacy of our approach, where our attack achieves high attack success rates for all target labels with minimal impact on the clean accuracy. Experimental results on five dataset demonstrate the superior performance of our attack framework compared to the conventional subgraph replacement-based attack. Our analysis on four GNN models confirms the generalization capability of our attack which is effective regardless of the GNN model architectures and training parameters settings. We further investigate the impact of the attack design parameters including injection methods, number of connections, trigger sizes, trigger edge density and poisoning ratios. Additionally, our evaluation against state-of-the-art defenses (randomized smoothing and fine-pruning) demonstrates the robustness of our proposed multi-target attacks. This work highlights the GNN vulnerability against multi-targeted backdoor attack in graph classification task. Our source codes will be available at https://github.com/SiSL-URI/Multi-Targeted-Graph-Backdoor-Attack.
Self-Discovered Intention-aware Transformer for Multi-modal Vehicle Trajectory Prediction	2026-04-08	Show Predicting vehicle trajectories plays an important role in autonomous driving and ITS applications. Although multiple deep learning algorithms are devised to predict vehicle trajectories, their reliant on specific graph structure (e.g., Graph Neural Network) or explicit intention labeling limit their flexibilities. In this study, we propose a pure Transformer-based network with multiple modals considering their neighboring vehicles. Two separate tracks are employed. One track focuses on predicting the trajectories while the other focuses on predicting the likelihood of each intention considering neighboring vehicles. Study finds that the two track design can increase the performance by separating spatial module from the trajectory generating module. Also, we find the the model can learn an ordered group of trajectories by predicting residual offsets among K trajectories.	5 pages, 2 figures
A Texture-Generalizable Deep Material Network via Orientation-Aware Interaction Learning for Polycrystal Modeling and Texture Evolution	2026-04-08	Show Machine learning surrogate models have emerged as a promising approach for accelerating multiscale materials simulations while preserving predictive fidelity. Among them, the Orientation-aware Interaction-based Deep Material Network (ODMN) provides a hierarchical homogenization framework in which material nodes encode crystallographic texture and interaction nodes enforce stress equilibrium under the Hill--Mandel condition. Trained solely on linear-elastic stiffness data, ODMN captures intrinsic microstructure--mechanics relationships, enabling accurate prediction of nonlinear mechanical responses and texture evolution. However, its applicability remains fundamentally limited by the absence of a parametric mapping from arbitrary microstructures to the ODMN parameter space. This limitation necessitates retraining for each new microstructure. To address this challenge, we reformulate ODMN generalization as a microstructure-to-parameter inference problem and propose the TACS--GNN--ODMN framework. The proposed framework combines a Texture-Adaptive Clustering and Sampling (TACS) scheme for texture representation with a Graph Neural Network (GNN) for inferring micromechanical equilibrium parameters. This strategy enables the construction of fully parameterized ODMNs for previously unseen microstructures without retraining. Numerical results demonstrate that the proposed framework accurately predicts nonlinear mechanical responses and texture evolution across diverse texture distributions. The predicted responses show close agreement with direct numerical simulations (DNS), highlighting the framework as a generalizable and physically interpretable surrogate model for microstructure-informed multiscale materials simulations.
Equivariant Multi-agent Reinforcement Learning for Multimodal Vehicle-to-Infrastructure Systems	2026-04-08	Show In this paper, we study a vehicle-to-infrastructure (V2I) system where distributed base stations (BSs) acting as road-side units (RSUs) collect multimodal (wireless and visual) data from moving vehicles. We consider a decentralized rate maximization problem, where each RSU relies on its local observations to optimize its resources, while all RSUs must collaborate to guarantee favorable network performance. We recast this problem as a distributed multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL) problem, by incorporating rotation symmetries in terms of vehicles' locations. To exploit these symmetries, we propose a novel self-supervised learning framework where each BS agent aligns the latent features of its multimodal observation to extract the positions of the vehicles in its local region. Equipped with this sensing data at each RSU, we train an equivariant policy network using a graph neural network (GNN) with message passing layers, such that each agent computes its policy locally, while all agents coordinate their policies via a signaling scheme that overcomes partial observability and guarantees the equivariance of the global policy. We present numerical results carried out in a simulation environment, where ray-tracing and computer graphics are used to collect wireless and visual data. Results show the generalizability of our self-supervised and multimodal sensing approach, achieving more than two-fold accuracy gains over baselines, and the efficiency of our equivariant MARL training, attaining more than 50% performance gains over standard approaches.
FlowAdam: Implicit Regularization via Geometry-Aware Soft Momentum Injection	2026-04-08	Show Adaptive moment methods such as Adam use a diagonal, coordinate-wise preconditioner based on exponential moving averages of squared gradients. This diagonal scaling is coordinate-system dependent and can struggle with dense or rotated parameter couplings, including those in matrix factorization, tensor decomposition, and graph neural networks, because it treats each parameter independently. We introduce FlowAdam, a hybrid optimizer that augments Adam with continuous gradient-flow integration via an ordinary differential equation (ODE). When EMA-based statistics detect landscape difficulty, FlowAdam switches to clipped ODE integration. Our central contribution is Soft Momentum Injection, which blends ODE velocity with Adam's momentum during mode transitions. This prevents the training collapse observed with naive hybrid approaches. Across coupled optimization benchmarks, the ODE integration provides implicit regularization, reducing held-out error by 10-22% on low-rank matrix/tensor recovery and 6% on Jester (real-world collaborative filtering), also surpassing tuned Lion and AdaBelief, while matching Adam on well-conditioned workloads (CIFAR-10). MovieLens-100K confirms benefits arise specifically from coupled parameter interactions rather than bias estimation. Ablation studies show that soft injection is essential, as hard replacement reduces accuracy from 100% to 82.5%.	Accep... Accepted at IJCNN 2026 (IEEE WCCI). 8 pages, 4 figures
Predicting Alzheimer's disease progression using rs-fMRI and a history-aware graph neural network	2026-04-07	Show Alzheimer's disease (AD) is a neurodegenerative disorder that affects more than seven million people in the United States alone. AD currently has no cure, but there are ways to potentially slow its progression if caught early enough. In this study, we propose a graph neural network (GNN)-based model for predicting whether a subject will transition to a more severe stage of cognitive impairment at their next clinical visit. We consider three stages of cognitive impairment in order of severity: cognitively normal (CN), mild cognitive impairment (MCI), and AD. We use functional connectivity graphs derived from resting-state functional magnetic resonance imaging (rs-fMRI) scans of 303 subjects, each with a different number of visits. Our GNN-based model incorporates a recurrent neural network (RNN) block, enabling it to process data from the subject's entire visit history. It can also work with irregular time gaps between visits by incorporating visit distance information into our input features. Our model demonstrates robust predictive performance, even with missing visits in the subjects' visit histories. It achieves an accuracy of 82.9%, with an especially impressive accuracy of 68.8% on CN to MCI conversions - a task that poses a substantial challenge in the field. Our results highlight the effectiveness of rs-fMRI in predicting the onset of MCI or AD and, in conjunction with other modalities, could offer a viable method for enabling timely interventions to slow the progression of cognitive impairment.	Proc.... Proc. SPIE 13926, Medical Imaging 2026: Computer-Aided Diagnosis, 1392604
k-Maximum Inner Product Attention for Graph Transformers and the Expressive Power of GraphGPS	2026-04-07	Show Graph transformers have shown promise in overcoming limitations of traditional graph neural networks, such as oversquashing and difficulties in modeling long-range dependencies. However, their application to large-scale graphs is hindered by the quadratic memory and computational complexity of the all-to-all attention mechanism. Although alternatives such as linearized attention and restricted attention patterns have been proposed, these often degrade performance or limit expressive power. To better balance efficiency and effectiveness, we introduce k-Maximum Inner Product (k-MIP) attention for graph transformers. k-MIP attention selects the most relevant key nodes per query via a top-k operation, yielding a sparse yet flexible attention pattern. Combined with an attention score computation based on symbolic matrices, this results in linear memory complexity and practical speedups of up to an order of magnitude compared to all-to-all attention, enabling the processing of graphs with over 500k nodes on a single A100 GPU. We provide a theoretical analysis of expressive power, showing that k-MIP attention does not compromise the expressiveness of graph transformers: specifically, we prove that k-MIP transformers can approximate any full-attention transformer to arbitrary precision. In addition, we analyze the expressive power of the GraphGPS framework, in which we integrate our attention mechanism, and establish an upper bound on its graph distinguishing capability in terms of the S-SEG-WL test. Finally, we validate our approach on the Long Range Graph Benchmark, the City-Networks benchmark, and two custom large-scale inductive point cloud datasets, consistently ranking among the top-performing scalable graph transformers.	Accep... Accepted at the ICLR 2026 GRaM Workshop. 9 pages, 9 figures, 16 tables; 30 pages of supplementary material
Toward a universal foundation model for graph-structured data	2026-04-07	Show Graphs are a central representation in biomedical research, capturing molecular interaction networks, gene regulatory circuits, cell--cell communication maps, and knowledge graphs. Despite their importance, currently there is not a broadly reusable foundation model available for graph analysis comparable to those that have transformed language and vision. Existing graph neural networks are typically trained on a single dataset and learn representations specific only to that graph's node features, topology, and label space, limiting their ability to transfer across domains. This lack of generalization is particularly problematic in biology and medicine, where networks vary substantially across cohorts, assays, and institutions. Here we introduce a graph foundation model designed to learn transferable structural representations that are not specific to specific node identities or feature schemes. Our approach leverages feature-agnostic graph properties, including degree statistics, centrality measures, community structure indicators, and diffusion-based signatures, and encodes them as structural prompts. These prompts are integrated with a message-passing backbone to embed diverse graphs into a shared representation space. The model is pretrained once on heterogeneous graphs and subsequently reused on unseen datasets with minimal adaptation. Across multiple benchmarks, our pretrained model matches or exceeds strong supervised baselines while demonstrating superior zero-shot and few-shot generalization on held-out graphs. On the SagePPI benchmark, supervised fine-tuning of the pretrained backbone achieves a mean ROC-AUC of 95.5%, a gain of 21.8% over the best supervised message-passing baseline. The proposed technique thus provides a unique approach toward reusable, foundation-scale models for graph-structured data in biomedical and network science applications.	19 pa... 19 pages, 5 figures, 12 supplementary figures
BiScale-GTR: Fragment-Aware Graph Transformers for Multi-Scale Molecular Representation Learning	2026-04-07	Show Graph Transformers have recently attracted attention for molecular property prediction by combining the inductive biases of graph neural networks (GNNs) with the global receptive field of Transformers. However, many existing hybrid architectures remain GNN-dominated, causing the resulting representations to remain heavily shaped by local message passing. Moreover, most existing methods operate at only a single structural granularity, limiting their ability to capture molecular patterns that span multiple molecular scales. We introduce BiScale-GTR, a unified framework for self-supervised molecular representation learning that combines chemically grounded fragment tokenization with adaptive multi-scale reasoning. Our method improves graph Byte Pair Encoding (BPE) tokenization to produce consistent, chemically valid, and high-coverage fragment tokens, which are used as fragment-level inputs to a parallel GNN-Transformer architecture. Architecturally, atom-level representations learned by a GNN are pooled into fragment-level embeddings and fused with fragment token embeddings before Transformer reasoning, enabling the model to jointly capture local chemical environments, substructure-level motifs, and long-range molecular dependencies. Experiments on MoleculeNet, PharmaBench, and the Long Range Graph Benchmark (LRGB) demonstrate state-of-the-art performance across both classification and regression tasks. Attribution analysis further shows that BiScale-GTR highlights chemically meaningful functional motifs, providing interpretable links between molecular structure and predicted properties. Code will be released upon acceptance.
Interpreting Temporal Graph Neural Networks with Koopman Theory	2026-04-07	Show Spatiotemporal graph neural networks (STGNNs) have shown promising results in many domains, from forecasting to epidemiology. However, understanding the dynamics learned by these models and explaining their behaviour is significantly more difficult than for models that deal with static data. Inspired by Koopman theory, which allows a simple description of intricate, nonlinear dynamical systems, we introduce new explainability approaches for temporal graphs. Specifically, we present two methods to interpret the STGNN's decision process and identify the most relevant spatial and temporal patterns in the input for the task at hand. The first relies on dynamic mode decomposition (DMD), a Koopman-inspired dimensionality reduction method. The second relies on sparse identification of nonlinear dynamics (SINDy), a popular method for discovering governing equations of dynamical systems, which we use for the first time as a general tool for explainability. On semi-synthetic dissemination datasets, our methods correctly identify interpretable features such as the times at which infections occur and the infected nodes. We also validate the methods qualitatively on a real-world human motion dataset, where the explanations highlight the body parts most relevant for action recognition.
Graph-PiT: Enhancing Structural Coherence in Part-Based Image Synthesis via Graph Priors	2026-04-07	Show Achieving fine-grained and structurally sound controllability is a cornerstone of advanced visual generation. Existing part-based frameworks treat user-provided parts as an unordered set and therefore ignore their intrinsic spatial and semantic relationships, which often results in compositions that lack structural integrity. To bridge this gap, we propose Graph-PiT, a framework that explicitly models the structural dependencies of visual components using a graph prior. Specifically, we represent visual parts as nodes and their spatial-semantic relationships as edges. At the heart of our method is a Hierarchical Graph Neural Network (HGNN) module that performs bidirectional message passing between coarse-grained part-level super-nodes and fine-grained IP+ token sub-nodes, refining part embeddings before they enter the generative pipeline. We also introduce a graph Laplacian smoothness loss and an edge-reconstruction loss so that adjacent parts acquire compatible, relation-aware embeddings. Quantitative experiments on controlled synthetic domains (character, product, indoor layout, and jigsaw), together with qualitative transfer to real web images, show that Graph-PiT improves structural coherence over vanilla PiT while remaining compatible with the original IP-Prior pipeline. Ablation experiments confirm that explicit relational reasoning is crucial for enforcing user-specified adjacency constraints. Our approach not only enhances the plausibility of generated concepts but also offers a scalable and interpretable mechanism for complex, multi-part image synthesis. The code is available at https://github.com/wolf-bailang/Graph-PiT.	11 pa... 11 pages, 5 figures, Accepted by ICME 2026
Incident-Guided Spatiotemporal Traffic Forecasting	2026-04-07	Show Recent years have witnessed the rapid development of deep-learning-based, graph-neural-network-based forecasting methods for modern intelligent transportation systems. However, most existing work focuses exclusively on capturing spatio-temporal dependencies from historical traffic data, while overlooking the fact that suddenly occurring transportation incidents, such as traffic accidents and adverse weather, serve as external disturbances that can substantially alter temporal patterns. We argue that this issue has become a major obstacle to modeling the dynamics of traffic systems and improving prediction accuracy, but the unpredictability of incidents makes it difficult to observe patterns from historical sequences. To address these challenges, this paper proposes a novel framework named the Incident-Guided Spatiotemporal Graph Neural Network (IGSTGNN). IGSTGNN explicitly models the incident's impact through two core components: an Incident-Context Spatial Fusion (ICSF) module to capture the initial heterogeneous spatial influence, and a Temporal Incident Impact Decay (TIID) module to model the subsequent dynamic dissipation. To facilitate research on the spatio-temporal impact of incidents on traffic flow, a large-scale dataset is constructed and released, featuring incident records that are time-aligned with traffic time series. On this new benchmark, the proposed IGSTGNN framework is demonstrated to achieve state-of-the-art performance. Furthermore, the generalizability of the ICSF and TIID modules is validated by integrating them into various existing models.
Energy-Balanced Hyperspherical Graph Representation Learning via Structural Binding and Entropic Dispersion	2026-04-07	Show Graph Representation Learning (GRL) can be fundamentally modeled as a physical process of seeking an energy equilibrium state for a node system on a latent manifold. However, existing Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) often suffer from uncontrolled energy dissipation during message passing, driving the system towards a state of Thermal Death--manifested as feature collapse or over-smoothing--due to the absence of explicit thermodynamic constraints. To address this, we propose HyperGRL, a thermodynamics-driven framework that embeds nodes on a unit hypersphere by minimizing a Helmholtz free energy objective composed of two competing potentials. First, we introduce Structural Binding Energy (via Neighbor-Mean Alignment), which functions as a local binding force to strengthen structural cohesion, encouraging structurally related nodes to form compact local clusters. Second, to counteract representation collapse, we impose a Mean-Field Repulsive Potential (via Sampling-Free Uniformity), which acts as a global entropic force to maximize representation dispersion without the need for negative sampling. Crucially, to govern the trade-off between local alignment and global uniformity, we devise an Adaptive Thermostat. This entropy-guided strategy dynamically regulates the system's "temperature" during training, guiding the representation towards a robust metastable state that balances local cohesion with global discriminability. Extensive experiments on node classification, node clustering, and link prediction show that HyperGRL consistently achieves strong performance across diverse benchmark datasets, yielding more discriminative and robust representations while alleviating over-smoothing.	Submi... Submitted to Knowledge-Based Systems
CROSS-Net: Region-Agnostic Taxi-Demand Prediction Using Feature Disentanglement	2026-04-07	Show The growing demand for ride-hailing services has led to an increasing need for accurate taxi demand prediction. Existing systems are limited to specific regions, lacking generality to unseen areas. This paper presents a novel taxi demand prediction system, harnessing the strengths of multiview graph neural networks to capture spatial-temporal dependencies and patterns in urban environments. Additionally, the proposed system CROSS-Net employs a spatially transferable approach, enabling it to train a model that can be deployed to previously unseen regions. To achieve this, the framework incorporates the power of a Variational Autoencoder to disentangle the input features into region-specific and region-agnostic components. The region-agnostic features facilitate cross-region taxi demand predictions, allowing the model to generalize well across different urban areas. Experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of CROSS-Net in accurately forecasting taxi demand, even in previously unobserved regions, thus showcasing its potential for optimizing taxi services and improving transportation efficiency on a broader scale.	An ac... An accepted journal article on IEEE Transactions on Intelligent Transportation System
Deterministic and probabilistic neural surrogates of global hybrid-Vlasov simulations	2026-04-06	Show Hybrid-Vlasov simulations resolve ion-kinetic effects in the solar wind-magnetosphere interaction, but even 5D (2D + 3V) configurations are computationally expensive. We show that graph-based machine learning emulators can learn the spatiotemporal evolution of electromagnetic fields and lower order moments of ion velocity distribution in the near-Earth space environment from four 5D Vlasiator runs performed with identical steady solar wind conditions. The initial ion number density is systematically varied, while the grid spacing is held constant, to scan the ratio of the characteristic ion skin depth to the numerical grid size. Using a graph neural network (GNN) operating on the 2D spatial simulation grid comprising 670k cells, we demonstrate that both a deterministic forecasting model (Graph-FM) and a probabilistic ensemble forecasting model (Graph-EFM) based on a latent variable formulation are capable of producing accurate predictions of future plasma states. A divergence penalty is incorporated to encourage divergence-freeness in the magnetic fields. For the probabilistic model, a continuous ranked probability score objective is added to improve the calibration of the ensemble forecasts. The trained emulators achieve over two orders of magnitude speedup per time step on a single GPU compared to 100 CPU Vlasiator simulations. Most forecasted fields have Pearson correlations above 0.95 at 50 seconds lead time. However, we find that fields that exhibit near-zero degenerate distributions in the 5D setting are more challenging for the emulator to maintain high correlations for. Overall, these results demonstrate that GNNs provide a viable framework for rapid ensemble generation in hybrid-Vlasov modeling and highlight promising directions for future work.
Graph Signal Diffusion Models for Wireless Resource Allocation	2026-04-06	Show We consider constrained ergodic resource optimization in wireless networks with graph-structured interference. We train a diffusion model policy to match expert conditional distributions over resource allocations. By leveraging a primal-dual (expert) algorithm, we generate primal iterates that serve as draws from the corresponding expert conditionals for each training network instance. We view the allocations as stochastic graph signals supported on known channel state graphs. We implement the diffusion model architecture as a U-Net hierarchy of graph neural network (GNN) blocks, conditioned on the channel states and additional node states. At inference, the learned generative model amortizes the iterative expert policy by directly sampling allocation vectors from the near-optimal conditional distributions. In a power-control case study, we show that time-sharing the generated power allocations achieves near-optimal ergodic sum-rate utility and near-feasible ergodic minimum-rates, with strong generalization and transferability across network states.	Under... Under review for SPAWC'26
General Geospatial Inference with a Population Dynamics Foundation Model	2026-04-06	Show Supporting the health and well-being of dynamic populations around the world requires governmental agencies, organizations and researchers to understand and reason over complex relationships between human behavior and local contexts in order to identify high-risk groups and strategically allocate limited resources. Traditional approaches to these classes of problems often entail developing manually curated, task-specific features and models to represent human behavior and the natural and built environment, which can be challenging to adapt to new, or even, related tasks. To address this, we introduce a Population Dynamics Foundation Model (PDFM) that aims to capture the relationships between diverse data modalities and is applicable to a broad range of geospatial tasks. We first construct a geo-indexed dataset for postal codes and counties across the United States, capturing rich aggregated information on human behavior from maps, busyness, and aggregated search trends, and environmental factors such as weather and air quality. We then model this data and the complex relationships between locations using a graph neural network, producing embeddings that can be adapted to a wide range of downstream tasks using relatively simple models. We evaluate the effectiveness of our approach by benchmarking it on 27 downstream tasks spanning three distinct domains: health indicators, socioeconomic factors, and environmental measurements. The approach achieves state-of-the-art performance on all 27 geospatial interpolation tasks, and on 25 out of the 27 extrapolation and super-resolution tasks. We combined the PDFM with a state-of-the-art forecasting foundation model, TimesFM, to predict unemployment and poverty, achieving performance that surpasses fully supervised forecasting. The full set of embeddings and sample code are publicly available for researchers.	updat... updated access information
Empowering Power Outage Prediction with Spatially Aware Hybrid Graph Neural Networks and Contrastive Learning	2026-04-06	Show Extreme weather events, such as severe storms, hurricanes, snowstorms, and ice storms, which are exacerbated by climate change, frequently cause widespread power outages. These outages halt industrial operations, impact communities, damage critical infrastructure, profoundly disrupt economies, and have far-reaching effects across various sectors. To mitigate these effects, the University of Connecticut and Eversource Energy Center have developed an outage prediction modeling (OPM) system to provide pre-emptive forecasts for electric distribution networks before such weather events occur. However, existing predictive models in the system do not incorporate the spatial effect of extreme weather events. To this end, we develop Spatially Aware Hybrid Graph Neural Networks (SA-HGNN) with contrastive learning to enhance the OPM predictions for extreme weather-induced power outages. Specifically, we first encode spatial relationships of both static features (e.g., land cover, infrastructure) and event-specific dynamic features (e.g., wind speed, precipitation) via Spatially Aware Hybrid Graph Neural Networks (SA-HGNN). Next, we leverage contrastive learning to handle the imbalance problem associated with different types of extreme weather events and generate location-specific embeddings by minimizing intra-event distances between similar locations while maximizing inter-event distances across all locations. Thorough empirical studies in four utility service territories, i.e., Connecticut, Western Massachusetts, Eastern Massachusetts, and New Hampshire, demonstrate that SA-HGNN can achieve state-of-the-art performance for power outage prediction.
Pixels or Positions? Benchmarking Modalities in Group Activity Recognition	2026-04-06	Show Group Activity Recognition (GAR) is well studied on the video modality for surveillance and indoor team sports (e.g., volleyball, basketball). Yet, other modalities such as agent positions and trajectories over time, i.e. tracking, remain comparatively under-explored despite being compact, agent-centric signals that explicitly encode spatial interactions. Understanding whether pixel (video) or position (tracking) modalities leads to better group activity recognition is therefore important to drive further research on the topic. However, no standardized benchmark currently exists that aligns broadcast video and tracking data for the same group activities, leading to a lack of apples-to-apples comparison between these modalities for GAR. In this work, we introduce SoccerNet-GAR, a multimodal dataset built from the $64$ matches of the football World Cup 2022. Specifically, the broadcast videos and player tracking modalities for $87{,}939$ group activities are synchronized and annotated with $10$ categories. Furthermore, we define a unified evaluation protocol to benchmark two strong unimodal approaches: (i) competitive video-based classifiers and (ii) tracking-based classifiers leveraging graph neural networks. In particular, our novel role-aware graph architecture for tracking-based GAR directly encodes tactical structure through positional edges connecting players by their on-pitch roles. Our tracking model achieves $77.8%$ balanced accuracy compared to $60.9%$ for the best video baseline, while training with $7 \times$ less GPU hours and $479 \times$ fewer parameters ($180K$ vs. $86.3M$). This study provides new insights into the relative strengths of pixels and positions for group activity recognition in sports.
MAVEN: A Mesh-Aware Volumetric Encoding Network for Simulating 3D Flexible Deformation	2026-04-06	Show Deep learning-based approaches, particularly graph neural networks (GNNs), have gained prominence in simulating flexible deformations and contacts of solids, due to their ability to handle unstructured physical fields and nonlinear regression on graph structures. However, existing GNNs commonly represent meshes with graphs built solely from vertices and edges. These approaches tend to overlook higher-dimensional spatial features, e.g., 2D facets and 3D cells, from the original geometry. As a result, it is challenging to accurately capture boundary representations and volumetric characteristics, though this information is critically important for modeling contact interactions and internal physical quantity propagation, particularly under sparse mesh discretization. In this paper, we introduce MAVEN, a mesh-aware volumetric encoding network for simulating 3D flexible deformation, which explicitly models geometric mesh elements of higher dimension to achieve a more accurate and natural physical simulation. MAVEN establishes learnable mappings among 3D cells, 2D facets, and vertices, enabling flexible mutual transformations. Explicit geometric features are incorporated into the model to alleviate the burden of implicitly learning geometric patterns. Experimental results show that MAVEN consistently achieves state-of-the-art performance across established datasets and a novel metal stretch-bending task featuring large deformations and prolonged contacts.
Thermodynamic-Inspired Explainable GeoAI: Uncovering Regime-Dependent Mechanisms in Heterogeneous Spatial Systems	2026-04-06	Show Modeling spatial heterogeneity and associated critical transitions remains a fundamental challenge in geography and environmental science. While conventional Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) and deep learning models have improved predictive skill, they often fail to elucidate state-dependent nonlinearities where the functional roles of drivers represent opposing effects across heterogeneous domains. We introduce a thermodynamics-inspired explainable geospatial AI framework that integrates statistical mechanics with graph neural networks. By conceptualizing spatial variability as a thermodynamic competition between system Burden (E) and Capacity (S), our model disentangles the latent mechanisms driving spatial processes. Using three simulation datasets and three real-word datasets across distinct domains (housing markets, mental health prevalence, and wildfire-induced PM2.5 anomalies), we show that the new framework successfully identifies regime-dependent role reversals of predictors that standard baselines miss. Notably, the framework explicitly diagnoses the phase transition into a Burden-dominated regime during the 2023 Canadian wildfire event, distinguishing physical mechanism shifts from statistical outliers. These findings demonstrate that thermodynamic constraints can improve the interpretability of GeoAI while preserving strong predictive performance in complex spatial systems.
DSBD: Dual-Aligned Structural Basis Distillation for Graph Domain Adaptation	2026-04-03	Show Graph domain adaptation (GDA) aims to transfer knowledge from a labeled source graph to an unlabeled target graph under distribution shifts. However, existing methods are largely feature-centric and overlook structural discrepancies, which become particularly detrimental under significant topology shifts. Such discrepancies alter both geometric relationships and spectral properties, leading to unreliable transfer of graph neural networks (GNNs). To address this limitation, we propose Dual-Aligned Structural Basis Distillation (DSBD) for GDA, a novel framework that explicitly models and adapts cross-domain structural variation. DSBD constructs a differentiable structural basis by synthesizing continuous probabilistic prototype graphs, enabling gradient-based optimization over graph topology. The basis is learned under source-domain supervision to preserve semantic discriminability, while being explicitly aligned to the target domain through a dual-alignment objective. Specifically, geometric consistency is enforced via permutation-invariant topological moment matching, and spectral consistency is achieved through Dirichlet energy calibration, jointly capturing structural characteristics across domains. Furthermore, we introduce a decoupled inference paradigm that mitigates source-specific structural bias by training a new GNN on the distilled structural basis. Extensive experiments on graph and image benchmarks demonstrate that DSBD consistently outperforms state-of-the-art methods.
Towards Intelligent Energy Security: A Unified Spatio-Temporal and Graph Learning Framework for Scalable Electricity Theft Detection in Smart Grids	2026-04-03	Show Electricity theft and non-technical losses (NTLs) remain critical challenges in modern smart grids, causing significant economic losses and compromising grid reliability. This study introduces the SmartGuard Energy Intelligence System (SGEIS), an integrated artificial intelligence framework for electricity theft detection and intelligent energy monitoring. The proposed system combines supervised machine learning, deep learning-based time-series modeling, Non-Intrusive Load Monitoring (NILM), and graph-based learning to capture both temporal and spatial consumption patterns. A comprehensive data processing pipeline is developed, incorporating feature engineering, multi-scale temporal analysis, and rule-based anomaly labeling. Deep learning models, including Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), Temporal Convolutional Networks (TCN), and Autoencoders, are employed to detect abnormal usage patterns. In parallel, ensemble learning methods such as Random Forest, Gradient Boosting, XGBoost, and LightGBM are utilized for classification. To model grid topology and spatial dependencies, Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) are applied to identify correlated anomalies across interconnected nodes. The NILM module enhances interpretability by disaggregating appliance-level consumption from aggregate signals. Experimental results demonstrate strong performance, with Gradient Boosting achieving a ROC-AUC of 0.894, while graph-based models attain over 96% accuracy in identifying high-risk nodes. The hybrid framework improves detection robustness by integrating temporal, statistical, and spatial intelligence. Overall, SGEIS provides a scalable and practical solution for electricity theft detection, offering high accuracy, improved interpretability, and strong potential for real-world smart grid deployment.	26 pages, 9 figures
Communication-free Sampling and 4D Hybrid Parallelism for Scalable Mini-batch GNN Training	2026-04-03	Show Graph neural networks (GNNs) are widely used for learning on graph datasets derived from various real-world scenarios. Learning from extremely large graphs requires distributed training, and mini-batching with sampling is a popular approach for parallelizing GNN training. Existing distributed mini-batch approaches have significant performance bottlenecks due to expensive sampling methods and limited scaling when using data parallelism. In this work, we present ScaleGNN, a 4D parallel framework for scalable mini-batch GNN training that combines communication-free distributed sampling, 3D parallel matrix multiplication (PMM), and data parallelism. ScaleGNN introduces a uniform vertex sampling algorithm, enabling each process (GPU device) to construct its local mini-batch, i.e., subgraph partitions without any inter-process communication. 3D PMM enables scaling mini-batch training to much larger GPU counts than vanilla data parallelism with significantly lower communication overheads. We also present additional optimizations to overlap sampling with training, reduce communication overhead by sending data in lower precision, kernel fusion, and communication-computation overlap. We evaluate ScaleGNN on five graph datasets and demonstrate strong scaling up to 2048 GPUs on Perlmutter, 2048 GCDs on Frontier, and 1024 GPUs on Tuolumne. On Perlmutter, ScaleGNN achieves 3.5x end-to-end training speedup over the SOTA baseline on ogbn-products.
ChronoSpike: An Adaptive Spiking Graph Neural Network for Dynamic Graphs	2026-04-03	Show Dynamic graph representation learning requires capturing both structural relationships and temporal evolution, yet existing approaches face a fundamental trade-off: attention-based methods achieve expressiveness at $O(T^2)$ complexity, while recurrent architectures suffer from gradient pathologies and dense state storage. Spiking neural networks offer event-driven efficiency but remain limited by sequential propagation, binary information loss, and local aggregation that misses global context. We propose ChronoSpike, an adaptive spiking graph neural network that integrates learnable LIF neurons with per-channel membrane dynamics, multi-head attentive spatial aggregation on continuous features, and a lightweight Transformer temporal encoder, enabling both fine-grained local modeling and long-range dependency capture with linear memory complexity $O(T \cdot d)$. On three large-scale benchmarks, ChronoSpike outperforms twelve state-of-the-art baselines by $2.0%$ Macro-F1 and $2.4%$ Micro-F1 while achieving $3-10\times$ faster training than recurrent methods with a constant 105K-parameter budget independent of graph size. We provide theoretical guarantees for membrane potential boundedness, gradient flow stability under contraction factor $ρ< 1$, and BIBO stability; interpretability analyses reveal heterogeneous temporal receptive fields and a learned primacy effect with $83-88%$ sparsity.
Analytic Drift Resister for Non-Exemplar Continual Graph Learning	2026-04-03	Show Non-Exemplar Continual Graph Learning (NECGL) seeks to eliminate the privacy risks intrinsic to rehearsal-based paradigms by retaining solely class-level prototype representations rather than raw graph examples for mitigating catastrophic forgetting. However, this design choice inevitably precipitates feature drift. As a nascent alternative, Analytic Continual Learning (ACL) capitalizes on the intrinsic generalization properties of frozen pre-trained models to bolster continual learning performance. Nonetheless, a key drawback resides in the pronounced attenuation of model plasticity. To surmount these challenges, we propose Analytic Drift Resister (ADR), a novel and theoretically grounded NECGL framework. ADR exploits iterative backpropagation to break free from the frozen pre-trained constraint, adapting to evolving task graph distributions and fortifying model plasticity. Since parameter updates trigger feature drift, we further propose Hierarchical Analytic Merging (HAM), performing layer-wise merging of linear transformations in Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) via ridge regression, thereby ensuring absolute resistance to feature drift. On this basis, Analytic Classifier Reconstruction (ACR) enables theoretically zero-forgetting class-incremental learning. Empirical evaluation on four node classification benchmarks demonstrates that ADR maintains strong competitiveness against existing state-of-the-art methods.
Complex-Valued GNNs for Distributed Basis-Invariant Control of Planar Systems	2026-04-03	Show Graph neural networks (GNNs) are a well-regarded tool for learned control of networked dynamical systems due to their ability to be deployed in a distributed manner. However, current distributed GNN architectures assume that all nodes in the network collect geometric observations in compatible bases, which limits the usefulness of such controllers in GPS-denied and compass-denied environments. This paper presents a GNN parametrization that is globally invariant to choice of local basis. 2D geometric features and transformations between bases are expressed in the complex domain. Inside each GNN layer, complex-valued linear layers with phase-equivariant activation functions are used. When viewed from a fixed global frame, all policies learned by this architecture are strictly invariant to choice of local frames. This architecture is shown to increase the data efficiency, tracking performance, and generalization of learned control when compared to a real-valued baseline on an imitation learning flocking task.	8 pag... 8 pages, 6 figures, submitted to CDC 2026 main track
Crystalite: A Lightweight Transformer for Efficient Crystal Modeling	2026-04-02	Show Generative models for crystalline materials often rely on equivariant graph neural networks, which capture geometric structure well but are costly to train and slow to sample. We present Crystalite, a lightweight diffusion Transformer for crystal modeling built around two simple inductive biases. The first is Subatomic Tokenization, a compact chemically structured atom representation that replaces high-dimensional one-hot encodings and is better suited to continuous diffusion. The second is the Geometry Enhancement Module (GEM), which injects periodic minimum-image pair geometry directly into attention through additive geometric biases. Together, these components preserve the simplicity and efficiency of a standard Transformer while making it better matched to the structure of crystalline materials. Crystalite achieves state-of-the-art results on crystal structure prediction benchmarks, and de novo generation performance, attaining the best S.U.N. discovery score among the evaluated baselines while sampling substantially faster than geometry-heavy alternatives.	39 pa... 39 pages, 13 figures. Code available at: https://github.com/joshrosie/crystalite
Cross-attentive Cohesive Subgraph Embedding to Mitigate Oversquashing in GNNs	2026-04-02	Show Graph neural networks (GNNs) have achieved strong performance across various real-world domains. Nevertheless, they suffer from oversquashing, where long-range information is distorted as it is compressed through limited message-passing pathways. This bottleneck limits their ability to capture essential global context and decreases their performance, particularly in dense and heterophilic regions of graphs. To address this issue, we propose a novel graph learning framework that enriches node embeddings via cross-attentive cohesive subgraph representations to mitigate the impact of excessive long-range dependencies. This framework enhances the node representation by emphasizing cohesive structure in long-range information but removing noisy or irrelevant connections. It preserves essential global context without overloading the narrow bottlenecked channels, which further mitigates oversquashing. Extensive experiments on multiple benchmark datasets demonstrate that our model achieves consistent improvements in classification accuracy over standard baseline methods.
Physics Informed Reinforcement Learning with Gibbs Priors for Topology Control in Power Grids	2026-04-02	Show Topology control for power grid operation is a challenging sequential decision making problem because the action space grows combinatorially with the size of the grid and action evaluation through simulation is computationally expensive. We propose a physics-informed Reinforcement Learning framework that combines semi-Markov control with a Gibbs prior, that encodes the system's physics, over the action space. The decision is only taken when the grid enters a hazardous regime, while a graph neural network surrogate predicts the post action overload risk of feasible topology actions. These predictions are used to construct a physics-informed Gibbs prior that both selects a small state-dependent candidate set and reweights policy logits before action selection. In this way, our method reduces exploration difficulty and online simulation cost while preserving the flexibility of a learned policy. We evaluate the approach in three realistic benchmark environments of increasing difficulty. Across all settings, the proposed method achieves a strong balance between control quality and computational efficiency: it matches oracle-level performance while being approximately $6\times$ faster on the first benchmark, reaches $94.6%$ of oracle reward with roughly $200\times$ lower decision time on the second one, and on the most challenging benchmark improves over a PPO baseline by up to $255%$ in reward and $284%$ in survived steps while remaining about $2.5\times$ faster than a strong specialized engineering baseline. These results show that our method provides an effective mechanism for topology control in power grids.
A Graph Neural Network Approach for Solving the Ranked Assignment Problem in Multi-Object Tracking	2026-04-02	Show Associating measurements with tracks is a crucial step in Multi-Object Tracking (MOT) to guarantee the safety of autonomous vehicles. To manage the exponentially growing number of track hypotheses, truncation becomes necessary. In the $δ$-Generalized Labeled Multi-Bernoulli ($δ$-GLMB) filter application, this truncation typically involves the ranked assignment problem, solved by Murty's algorithm or the Gibbs sampling approach, both with limitations in terms of complexity or accuracy, respectively. With the motivation to improve these limitations, this paper addresses the ranked assignment problem arising from data association tasks with an approach that employs Graph Neural Networks (GNNs). The proposed Ranked Assignment Prediction Graph Neural Network (RAPNet) uses bipartite graphs to model the problem, harnessing the computational capabilities of deep learning. The conclusive evaluation compares the RAPNet with Murty's algorithm and the Gibbs sampler, showing accuracy improvements compared to the Gibbs sampler.	2024 ... 2024 IEEE Intelligent Vehicles Symposium (IV)
Wireless Power Control Based on Large Language Models	2026-04-02	Show This paper investigates the power control problem in wireless networks by repurposing pre-trained large language models (LLMs) as relational reasoning backbones. In hyper-connected interference environments, traditional optimization methods face high computational cost, while standard message passing neural networks suffer from aggregation bottlenecks that can obscure critical high-interference structures. In response, we propose PC-LLM, a physics-informed framework that augments a pre-trained LLM with an interference-aware attention bias. The proposed bias tuning mechanism injects the physical channel gain matrix directly into the self-attention scores, enabling explicit fusion of wireless topology with pre-trained relational priors without retraining the backbone from scratch. Extensive experiments demonstrate that PC-LLM consistently outperforms both traditional optimization methods and state-of-the-art graph neural network baselines, while exhibiting exceptional zero-shot generalization to unseen environments. We further observe that topology-relevant relational reasoning is concentrated in shallow layers, whereas deeper layers encode task-irrelevant semantic noise. Motivated by this finding, we develop a lightweight adaptation strategy that reduces model depth by 50%, significantly lowering inference cost while preserving state-of-the-art spectral efficiency.	13 pages, 6 figures
A Review of Neural Networks in Precipitation Prediction	2026-04-01	Show Precipitation prediction has undergone a profound transformation. A notable limitation of traditional NWP is the need for extensive statistical post-processing. To address this challenge, neural network-based approaches were developed. These approaches offer a framework that directly learns the mapping from atmospheric predictors to precipitation targets. Based on the technological development, this article first reviews the traditional precipitation forecasting methods and summarizes the development trends of precipitation forecasting based on neural networks. We then outline the training process, loss functions, and some datasets for precipitation prediction. In the main body of the article, we detail the basic artificial neural networks (ANNs), spatial feature extraction models, time feature extraction models, generative models, Transformer models, graph neural networks (GNNs), and emerging hybrid models. Finally, in the appendix, we supplement the commonly used evaluation metrics. This paper focuses on the advantages and disadvantages of various neural network models in precipitation forecasting applications, and also pays attention to the latest progress of neural network-based methods. Overall, neural networks have significantly improved the accuracy of short-term and medium-term precipitation forecasting, but still face challenges in representing extreme rainfall, handling imbalanced data, and ensuring physical consistency. The latest progress shows that future prediction systems will increasingly rely on the integration of multiple sources of data and hybrid physical-data-driven models to enhance their robustness and applicability. By compositing research covering multiple eras and paradigms, we not only depict the history of neural networks in precipitation prediction but also outline future directions in next generation forecasting systems.
EmbedPart: Embedding-Driven Graph Partitioning for Scalable Graph Neural Network Training	2026-04-01	Show Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) are widely used for learning on graph-structured data, but scaling GNN training to massive graphs remains challenging. To enable scalable distributed training, graphs are divided into smaller partitions that are distributed across multiple machines such that inter-machine communication is minimized and computational load is balanced. In practice, existing partitioning approaches face a fundamental trade-off between partitioning overhead and partitioning quality. We propose EmbedPart, an embedding-driven partitioning approach that achieves both speed and quality. Instead of operating directly on irregular graph structures, EmbedPart leverages node embeddings produced during the actual GNN training workload and clusters these dense embeddings to derive a partitioning. EmbedPart achieves more than 100x speedup over Metis while maintaining competitive partitioning quality and accelerating distributed GNN training. Moreover, EmbedPart naturally supports graph updates and fast repartitioning, and can be applied to graph reordering to improve data locality and accelerate single-machine GNN training. By shifting partitioning from irregular graph structures to dense embeddings, EmbedPart enables scalable and high-quality graph data optimization.
BN-Pool: Bayesian Nonparametric Pooling for Graphs	2026-04-01	Show We introduce BN-Pool, the first clustering-based pooling method for Graph Neural Networks that adaptively determines the number of supernodes in a coarsened graph. BN-Pool leverages a generative model based on a Bayesian nonparametric framework for partitioning graph nodes into an unbounded number of clusters. During training, the node-to-cluster assignments are learned by combining the supervised loss of the downstream task with an unsupervised auxiliary term, which encourages the reconstruction of the original graph topology while penalizing unnecessary proliferation of clusters. By automatically discovering the optimal coarsening level for each graph, BN-Pool preserves the performance of soft-clustering pooling methods while avoiding their typical redundancy by learning compact pooled graphs. The code is available at https://github.com/NGMLGroup/Bayesian-Nonparametric-Graph-Pooling.
Generalization Bounds for Spectral GNNs via Fourier Domain Analysis	2026-04-01	Show Spectral graph neural networks learn graph filters, but their behavior with increasing depth and polynomial order is not well understood. We analyze these models in the graph Fourier domain, where each layer becomes an element-wise frequency update, separating the fixed spectrum from trainable parameters and making depth and order explicit. In this setting, we show that Gaussian complexity is invariant under the Graph Fourier Transform, which allows us to derive data-dependent, depth, and order-aware generalization bounds together with stability estimates. In the linear case, our bounds are tighter, and on real graphs, the data-dependent term correlates with the generalization gap across polynomial bases, highlighting practical choices that avoid frequency amplification across layers.	Accep... Accepted to AISTATS 2026
Can We Go Beyond Visual Features? Neural Tissue Relation Modeling for Relational Graph Analysis in Non-Melanoma Skin Histology	2026-04-01	Show Histopathology image segmentation is essential for delineating tissue structures in skin cancer diagnostics, but modeling spatial context and inter-tissue relationships remains a challenge, especially in regions with overlapping or morphologically similar tissues. Current convolutional neural network (CNN)-based approaches operate primarily on visual texture, often treating tissues as independent regions and failing to encode biological context. To this end, we introduce Neural Tissue Relation Modeling (NTRM), a novel segmentation framework that augments CNNs with a tissue-level graph neural network to model spatial and functional relationships across tissue types. NTRM constructs a graph over predicted regions, propagates contextual information via message passing, and refines segmentation through spatial projection. Unlike prior methods, NTRM explicitly encodes inter-tissue dependencies, enabling structurally coherent predictions in boundary-dense zones. On the benchmark Histopathology Non-Melanoma Skin Cancer Segmentation Dataset, NTRM outperforms state-of-the-art methods, achieving a robust Dice similarity coefficient that is 4.9% to 31.25% higher than the best-performing models among the evaluated approaches. Our experiments indicate that relational modeling offers a principled path toward more context-aware and interpretable histological segmentation, compared to local receptive-field architectures that lack tissue-level structural awareness. Our code is available at https://github.com/shravan-18/NTRM.	CVPR 2026 Workshops
WaveGuard: Robust Deepfake Detection and Source Tracing via Dual-Tree Complex Wavelet and Graph Neural Networks	2026-04-01	Show Deepfake technology poses increasing risks such as privacy invasion and identity theft. To address these threats, we propose WaveGuard, a proactive watermarking framework that enhances robustness and imperceptibility via frequency-domain embedding and graph-based structural consistency. Specifically, we embed watermarks into high-frequency sub-bands using Dual-Tree Complex Wavelet Transform (DT-CWT) and employ a Structural Consistency Graph Neural Network (SC-GNN) to preserve visual quality. We also design an attention module to refine embedding precision. Experimental results on face swap and reenactment tasks demonstrate that WaveGuard outperforms state-of-the-art methods in both robustness and visual quality. Code is available at https://github.com/vpsg-research/WaveGuard.	14 pa... 14 pages, 6 figures, 7 tables
Predicting Dynamics of Ultra-Large Complex Systems by Inferring Governing Equations	2026-04-01	Show Predicting the behavior of ultra-large complex systems, from climate to biological and technological networks, is a central unsolved challenge. Existing approaches face a fundamental trade-off: equation discovery methods provide interpretability but fail to scale, while neural networks scale but operate as black boxes and often lose reliability over long times. Here, we introduce the Sparse Identification Graph Neural Network, a framework that overcome this divide by allowing to infer the governing equations of large networked systems from data. By defining symbolic discovery as edge-level information, SIGN decouples the scalability of sparse identification from network size, enabling efficient equation discovery even in large systems. SIGN allows to study networks with over 100,000 nodes while remaining robust to noise, sparse sampling, and missing data. Across diverse benchmark systems, including coupled chaotic oscillators, neural dynamics, and epidemic spreading, it recovers governing equations with high precision and sustains accurate long-term predictions. Applied to a data set of time series of temperature measurements in 71,987 sea surface positions, SIGN identifies a compact predictive network model and captures large-scale sea surface temperature conditions up to two years in advance. By enabling equation discovery at previously inaccessible scales, SIGN opens a path toward interpretable and reliable prediction of real-world complex systems.	15 pa... 15 pages, 5 figures, under review
Dynamic Graph Neural Network with Adaptive Features Selection for RGB-D Based Indoor Scene Recognition	2026-04-01	Show Multi-modality of color and depth, i.e., RGB-D, is of great importance in recent research of indoor scene recognition. In this kind of data representation, depth map is able to describe the 3D structure of scenes and geometric relations among objects. Previous works showed that local features of both modalities are vital for promotion of recognition accuracy. However, the problem of adaptive selection and effective exploitation on these key local features remains open in this field. In this paper, a dynamic graph model is proposed with adaptive node selection mechanism to solve the above problem. In this model, a dynamic graph is built up to model the relations among objects and scene, and a method of adaptive node selection is proposed to take key local features from both modalities of RGB and depth for graph modeling. After that, these nodes are grouped by three different levels, representing near or far relations among objects. Moreover, the graph model is updated dynamically according to attention weights. Finally, the updated and optimized features of RGB and depth modalities are fused together for indoor scene recognition. Experiments are performed on public datasets including SUN RGB-D and NYU Depth v2. Extensive results demonstrate that our method has superior performance when comparing to state-of-the-arts methods, and show that the proposed method is able to exploit crucial local features from both modalities of RGB and depth.
Is One Token All It Takes? Graph Pooling Tokens for LLM-based GraphQA	2026-04-01	Show The integration of Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) with Large Language Models (LLMs) has emerged as a promising paradigm for Graph Question Answering (GraphQA). However, effective methods for encoding complex structural information into the LLM's latent space remain an open challenge. Current state-of-the-art architectures, such as G-Retriever, typically rely on standard GNNs and aggressive mean pooling to compress entire graph substructures into a single token, creating a severe information bottleneck. This work mitigates this bottleneck by investigating two orthogonal strategies: (1) increasing the bandwidth of the graph-to-LLM interface via multi-token pooling, and (2) enhancing the semantic quality of the graph encoder via global attention mechanisms. We evaluate a suite of hierarchical pruning and clustering-based pooling operators including Top-k, SAGPool, DiffPool, MinCutPool, and Virtual Node Pooling (VNPool) to project graph data into multiple learnable tokens. Empirically, we demonstrate that while pooling introduces significant instability during soft prompt tuning, the application of Low-Rank Adaptation (LoRA) effectively stabilizes specific hierarchical projections (notably VNPool and pruning methods), though dense clustering operators remain challenging. This stabilization allows compressed representations to rival full-graph baselines (achieving ~73% Hit@1 on WebQSP). Conceptually, we demonstrate that a Graph Transformer with VNPool implementation functions structurally as a single-layer Perceiver IO encoder. Finally, we adapt the FandE (Features and Edges) Score to the generative GraphQA domain. Our analysis reveals that the GraphQA benchmark suffers from representational saturation, where target answers are often highly correlated with isolated node features. The implementation is available at https://github.com/Agrover112/G-Retriever/tree/all_good/	Accep... Accepted at LREC, KG-LLM Workshop 2026
A Survey on Graph Neural Network Acceleration: Algorithms, Systems, and Customized Hardware	2026-03-31	Show Graph neural networks (GNNs) are emerging for machine learning research on graph-structured data. GNNs achieve state-of-the-art performance on many tasks, but they face scalability challenges when it comes to real-world applications that have numerous data and strict latency requirements. Many studies have been conducted on how to accelerate GNNs in an effort to address these challenges. These acceleration techniques touch on various aspects of the GNN pipeline, from smart training and inference algorithms to efficient systems and customized hardware. As the amount of research on GNN acceleration has grown rapidly, there lacks a systematic treatment to provide a unified view and address the complexity of relevant works. In this survey, we provide a taxonomy of GNN acceleration, review the existing approaches, and suggest future research directions. Our taxonomic treatment of GNN acceleration connects the existing works and sets the stage for further development in this area.
Speeding Up Mixed-Integer Programming Solvers with Sparse Learning for Branching	2026-03-31	Show Machine learning is increasingly used to improve decisions within branch-and-bound algorithms for mixed-integer programming. Many existing approaches rely on deep learning, which often requires very large training datasets and substantial computational resources for both training and deployment, typically with GPU parallelization. In this work, we take a different path by developing interpretable models that are simple but effective. We focus on approximating strong branching (SB) scores, a highly effective yet computationally expensive branching rule. Using sparse learning methods, we build models with fewer than 4% of the parameters of a state-of-the-art graph neural network (GNN) while achieving competitive accuracy. Relative to SCIP's built-in branching rules and the GNN-based model, our CPU-only models are faster than the default solver and the GPU-accelerated GNN. The models are simple to train and deploy, and they remain effective with small training sets, which makes them practical in low-resource settings. Extensive experiments across diverse problem classes demonstrate the efficiency of this approach.	21 pages, 2 figures
When Does Global Attention Help? A Unified Empirical Study on Atomistic Graph Learning	2026-03-31	Show Graph neural networks (GNNs) are widely used as surrogates for costly experiments and first-principles simulations to study the behavior of compounds at atomistic scale, and their architectural complexity is constantly increasing to enable the modeling of complex physics. While most recent GNNs combine more traditional message passing neural networks (MPNNs) layers to model short-range interactions with more advanced graph transformers (GTs) with global attention mechanisms to model long-range interactions, it is still unclear when global attention mechanisms provide real benefits over well-tuned MPNN layers due to inconsistent implementations, features, or hyperparameter tuning. We introduce the first unified, reproducible benchmarking framework - built on HydraGNN - that enables seamless switching among four controlled model classes: MPNN, MPNN with chemistry/topology encoders, GPS-style hybrids of MPNN with global attention, and fully fused local-global models with encoders. Using seven diverse open-source datasets for benchmarking across regression and classification tasks, we systematically isolate the contributions of message passing, global attention, and encoder-based feature augmentation. Our study shows that encoder-augmented MPNNs form a robust baseline, while fused local-global models yield the clearest benefits for properties governed by long-range interaction effects. We further quantify the accuracy-compute trade-offs of attention, reporting its overhead in memory. Together, these results establish the first controlled evaluation of global attention in atomistic graph learning and provide a reproducible testbed for future model development.	44 pa... 44 pages, 8 figures, 19 tables
Learning Structural-Functional Brain Representations through Multi-Scale Adaptive Graph Attention for Cognitive Insight	2026-03-31	Show Understanding how brain structure and function interact is key to explaining intelligence yet modeling them jointly is challenging as the structural and functional connectome capture complementary aspects of organization. We introduced Multi-scale Adaptive Graph Network (MAGNet), a Transformer-style graph neural network framework that adaptively learns structure-function interactions. MAGNet leverages source-based morphometry from structural MRI to extract inter-regional morphological features and fuses them with functional network connectivity from resting-state fMRI. A hybrid graph integrates direct and indirect pathways, while local-global attention refines connectivity importance and a joint loss simultaneously enforces cross-modal coherence and optimizes the prediction objective end-to-end. On the ABCD dataset, MAGNet outperformed relevant baselines, demonstrating effective multimodal integration for advancing our understanding of cognitive function.	Prepr... Preprint version of the paper accepted to the IEEE International Conference on Acoustics, Speech, and Signal Processing (ICASSP 2026). This is the author's accepted manuscript. The final published version will appear in IEEE Xplore
NeuroBRIDGE: Behavior-Conditioned Koopman Dynamics with Riemannian Alignment for Early Substance Use Initiation Prediction from Longitudinal Functional Connectome	2026-03-31	Show Early identification of adolescents at risk for substance use initiation (SUI) is vital yet difficult, as most predictors treat connectivity as static or cross-sectional and miss how brain networks change over time and with behavior. We proposed NeuroBRIDGE (Behavior conditioned RIemannian Koopman Dynamics on lonGitudinal connEctomes), a novel graph neural network-based framework that aligns longitudinal functional connectome in a Riemannian tangent space and couples dual-time attention with behavioral-conditioned Koopman dynamics to capture temporal change. Evaluated on ABCD, NeuroBRIDGE improved future SUI prediction over relevant baselines while offering interpretable insights into neural pathways, refining our understanding of neurodevelopmental risk and informing targeted prevention.	Prepr... Preprint version of the paper accepted to the IEEE International Conference on Acoustics, Speech, and Signal Processing (ICASSP 2026). This is the author's accepted manuscript. The final published version will appear in IEEE Xplore
Disentangled Graph Prompting for Out-Of-Distribution Detection	2026-03-31	Show When testing data and training data come from different distributions, deep neural networks (DNNs) will face significant safety risks in practical applications. Therefore, out-of-distribution (OOD) detection techniques, which can identify OOD samples at test time and alert the system, are urgently needed. Existing graph OOD detection methods usually characterize fine-grained in-distribution (ID) patterns from multiple perspectives, and train end-to-end graph neural networks (GNNs) for prediction. However, due to the unavailability of OOD data during training, the absence of explicit supervision signals could lead to sub-optimal performance of end-to-end encoders. To address this issue, we follow the pre-training+prompting paradigm to utilize pre-trained GNN encoders, and propose Disentangled Graph Prompting (DGP), to capture fine-grained ID patterns with the help of ID graph labels. Specifically, we design two prompt generators that respectively generate class-specific and class-agnostic prompt graphs by modifying the edge weights of an input graph. We also design several effective losses to train the prompt generators and prevent trivial solutions. We conduct extensive experiments on ten datasets to demonstrate the superiority of our proposed DGP, which achieves a relative AUC improvement of 3.63% over the best graph OOD detection baseline. Ablation studies and hyper-parameter experiments further show the effectiveness of DGP. Code is available at https://github.com/BUPT-GAMMA/DGP.	Accep... Accepted for publication in IEEE Transactions on Knowledge and Data Engineering (TKDE)
Variational Graph Neural Networks for Uncertainty Quantification in Inverse Problems	2026-03-31	Show The increasingly wide use of deep machine learning techniques in computational mechanics has significantly accelerated simulations of problems that were considered unapproachable just a few years ago. However, in critical applications such as Digital Twins for engineering or medicine, fast responses are not enough; reliable results must also be provided. In certain cases, traditional deterministic methods may not be optimal as they do not provide a measure of confidence in their predictions or results, especially in inverse problems where the solution may not be unique or the initial data may not be entirely reliable due to the presence of noise, for instance. Classic deep neural networks also lack a clear measure to quantify the uncertainty of their predictions. In this work, we present a variational graph neural network (VGNN) architecture that integrates variational layers into its architecture to model the probability distribution of weights. Unlike computationally expensive full Bayesian networks, our approach strategically introduces variational layers exclusively in the decoder, allowing us to estimate cognitive uncertainty and statistical uncertainty at a relatively lower cost. In this work, we validate the proposed methodology in two cases of solid mechanics: the identification of the value of the elastic modulus with nonlinear distribution in a 2D elastic problem and the location and quantification of the loads applied to a 3D hyperelastic beam, in both cases using only the displacement field of each test as input data. The results show that the model not only recovers the physical parameters with high precision, but also provides confidence intervals consistent with the physics of the problem, as well as being able to locate the position of the applied load and estimate its value, giving a confidence interval for that experiment.
Square Superpixel Generation and Representation Learning via Granular Ball Computing	2026-03-31	Show Superpixels provide a compact region-based representation that preserves object boundaries and local structures, and have therefore been widely used in a variety of vision tasks to reduce computational cost. However, most existing superpixel algorithms produce irregularly shaped regions, which are not well aligned with regular operators such as convolutions. Consequently, superpixels are often treated as an offline preprocessing step, limiting parallel implementation and hindering end-to-end optimization within deep learning pipelines. Motivated by the adaptive representation and coverage property of granular-ball computing, we develop a square superpixel generation approach. Specifically, we approximate superpixels using multi-scale square blocks to avoid the computational and implementation difficulties induced by irregular shapes, enabling efficient parallel processing and learnable feature extraction. For each block, a purity score is computed based on pixel-intensity similarity, and high-quality blocks are selected accordingly. The resulting square superpixels can be readily integrated as graph nodes in graph neural networks (GNNs) or as tokens in Vision Transformers (ViTs), facilitating multi-scale information aggregation and structured visual representation. Experimental results on downstream tasks demonstrate consistent performance improvements, validating the effectiveness of the proposed method.
Causality-inspired Federated Learning for Dynamic Spatio-Temporal Graphs	2026-03-31	Show Federated Graph Learning (FGL) has emerged as a powerful paradigm for decentralized training of graph neural networks while preserving data privacy. However, existing FGL methods are predominantly designed for static graphs and rely on parameter averaging or distribution alignment, which implicitly assume that all features are equally transferable across clients, overlooking both the spatial and temporal heterogeneity and the presence of client-specific knowledge in real-world graphs. In this work, we identify that such assumptions create a vicious cycle of spurious representation entanglement, client-specific interference, and negative transfer, degrading generalization performance in Federated Learning over Dynamic Spatio-Temporal Graphs (FSTG). To address this issue, we propose a novel causality-inspired framework named SC-FSGL, which explicitly decouples transferable causal knowledge from client-specific noise through representation-level interventions. Specifically, we introduce a Conditional Separation Module that simulates soft interventions through client conditioned masks, enabling the disentanglement of invariant spatio-temporal causal factors from spurious signals and mitigating representation entanglement caused by client heterogeneity. In addition, we propose a Causal Codebook that clusters causal prototypes and aligns local representations via contrastive learning, promoting cross-client consistency and facilitating knowledge sharing across diverse spatio-temporal patterns. Experiments on five diverse heterogeneity Spatio-Temporal Graph (STG) datasets show that SC-FSGL outperforms state-of-the-art methods.
From Physics to Surrogate Intelligence: A Unified Electro-Thermo-Optimization Framework for TSV Networks	2026-03-31	Show High-density through-substrate vias (TSVs) enable 2.5D/3D heterogeneous integration but introduce significant signal-integrity and thermal-reliability challenges due to electrical coupling, insertion loss, and self-heating. Conventional full-wave finite-element method (FEM) simulations provide high accuracy but become computationally prohibitive for large design-space exploration. This work presents a scalable electro-thermal modeling and optimization framework that combines physics-informed analytical modeling, graph neural network (GNN) surrogates, and full-wave sign-off validation. A multi-conductor analytical model computes broadband S-parameters and effective anisotropic thermal conductivities of TSV arrays, achieving $5%-10%$ relative Frobenius error (RFE) across array sizes up to $15x15$. A physics-informed GNN surrogate (TSV-PhGNN), trained on analytical data and fine-tuned with HFSS simulations, generalizes to larger arrays with RFE below $2%$ and nearly constant variance. The surrogate is integrated into a multi-objective Pareto optimization framework targeting reflection coefficient, insertion loss, worst-case crosstalk (NEXT/FEXT), and effective thermal conductivity. Millions of TSV configurations can be explored within minutes, enabling exhaustive layout and geometric optimization that would be infeasible using FEM alone. Final designs are validated with Ansys HFSS and Mechanical, showing strong agreement. The proposed framework enables rapid electro-thermal co-design of TSV arrays while reducing per-design evaluation time by more than six orders of magnitude.	Submi... Submitted to IEEE Transactions on Computer-Aided Design of Integrated Circuits and Systems (IEEE TCAD)
Software Vulnerability Detection Using a Lightweight Graph Neural Network	2026-03-31	Show Large Language Models (LLMs) have emerged as a popular choice in vulnerability detection studies given their foundational capabilities, open source availability, and variety of models, but have limited scalability due to extensive compute requirements. Using the natural graph relational structure of code, we show that our proposed graph neural network (GNN) based deep learning model VulGNN for vulnerability detection can achieve performance almost on par with LLMs, but is 100 times smaller in size and fast to retrain and customize. We describe the VulGNN architecture, ablation studies on components, learning rates, and generalizability to different code datasets. As a lightweight model for vulnerability analysis, VulGNN is efficient and deployable at the edge as part of real-world software development pipelines.	12 pa... 12 pages, 3 figures, preprint of journal submission
HCLSM: Hierarchical Causal Latent State Machines for Object-Centric World Modeling	2026-03-31	Show World models that predict future states from video remain limited by flat latent representations that entangle objects, ignore causal structure, and collapse temporal dynamics into a single scale. We present HCLSM, a world model architecture that operates on three interconnected principles: object-centric decomposition via slot attention with spatial broadcast decoding, hierarchical temporal dynamics through a three-level engine combining selective state space models for continuous physics, sparse transformers for discrete events, and compressed transformers for abstract goals, and causal structure learning through graph neural network interaction patterns. HCLSM introduces a two-stage training protocol where spatial reconstruction forces slot specialization before dynamics prediction begins. We train a 68M-parameter model on the PushT robotic manipulation benchmark from the Open X-Embodiment dataset, achieving 0.008 MSE next-state prediction loss with emerging spatial decomposition (SBD loss: 0.0075) and learned event boundaries. A custom Triton kernel for the SSM scan delivers 38x speedup over sequential PyTorch. The full system spans 8,478 lines of Python across 51 modules with 171 unit tests. Code: https://github.com/rightnow-ai/hclsm	10 pa... 10 pages, 3 tables, 4 figures, 1 algorithm. Code: https://github.com/rightnow-ai/hclsm
Decoding Functional Networks for Visual Categories via GNNs	2026-03-30	Show Understanding how large-scale brain networks represent visual categories is fundamental to linking perception and cortical organization. Using high-resolution 7T fMRI from the Natural Scenes Dataset, we construct parcel-level functional graphs and train a signed Graph Neural Network that models both positive and negative interactions, with a sparse edge mask and class-specific saliency. The model accurately decodes category-specific functional connectivity states (sports, food, vehicles) and reveals reproducible, biologically meaningful subnetworks along the ventral and dorsal visual pathways. This framework bridges machine learning and neuroscience by extending voxel-level category selectivity to a connectivity-based representation of visual processing.	Accep... Accepted for publication in IEEE International Symposium on Biomedical Imaging (ISBI) 2026
Spectral Higher-Order Neural Networks	2026-03-30	Show Neural networks are fundamental tools of modern machine learning. The standard paradigm assumes binary interactions (across feedforward linear passes) between inter-tangled units, organized in sequential layers. Generalized architectures have been also designed that move beyond pairwise interactions, so as to account for higher-order couplings among computing neurons. Higher-order networks are however usually deployed as augmented graph neural networks (GNNs), and, as such, prove solely advantageous in contexts where the input exhibits an explicit hypergraph structure. Here, we present Spectral Higher-Order Neural Networks (SHONNs), a new algorithmic strategy to incorporate higher-order interactions in general-purpose, feedforward, network structures. SHONNs leverages a reformulation of the model in terms of spectral attributes. This allows to mitigate the common stability and parameter scaling problems that come along weighted, higher-order, forward propagations.
FairGC: Fairness-aware Graph Condensation	2026-03-30	Show Graph condensation (GC) has become a vital strategy for scaling Graph Neural Networks by compressing massive datasets into small, synthetic node sets. While current GC methods effectively maintain predictive accuracy, they are primarily designed for utility and often ignore fairness constraints. Because these techniques are bias-blind, they frequently capture and even amplify demographic disparities found in the original data. This leads to synthetic proxies that are unsuitable for sensitive applications like credit scoring or social recommendations. To solve this problem, we introduce FairGC, a unified framework that embeds fairness directly into the graph distillation process. Our approach consists of three key components. First, a Distribution-Preserving Condensation module synchronizes the joint distributions of labels and sensitive attributes to stop bias from spreading. Second, a Spectral Encoding module uses Laplacian eigen-decomposition to preserve essential global structural patterns. Finally, a Fairness-Enhanced Neural Architecture employs multi-domain fusion and a label-smoothing curriculum to produce equitable predictions. Rigorous evaluations on four real-world datasets, show that FairGC provides a superior balance between accuracy and fairness. Our results confirm that FairGC significantly reduces disparity in Statistical Parity and Equal Opportunity compared to existing state-of-the-art condensation models. The codes are available at https://github.com/LuoRenqiang/FairGC.	6 pag... 6 pages, IJCNN 2026 accepted
NeiGAD: Augmenting Graph Anomaly Detection via Spectral Neighbor Information	2026-03-30	Show Graph anomaly detection (GAD) aims to identify irregular nodes or structures in attributed graphs. Neighbor information, which reflects both structural connectivity and attribute consistency with surrounding nodes, is essential for distinguishing anomalies from normal patterns. Although recent graph neural network (GNN)-based methods incorporate such information through message passing, they often fail to explicitly model its effect or interaction with attributes, limiting detection performance. This work introduces NeiGAD, a novel plug-and-play module that captures neighbor information through spectral graph analysis. Theoretical insights demonstrate that eigenvectors of the adjacency matrix encode local neighbor interactions and progressively amplify anomaly signals. Based on this, NeiGAD selects a compact set of eigenvectors to construct efficient and discriminative representations. Experiments on eight real-world datasets show that NeiGAD consistently improves detection accuracy and outperforms state-of-the-art GAD methods. These results demonstrate the importance of explicit neighbor modeling and the effectiveness of spectral analysis in anomaly detection. Code is available at: https://github.com/huafeihuang/NeiGAD.	6 pag... 6 pages, IWCMC 2026 accepted
PEANUT: Perturbations by Eigenvector Alignment for Attacking Graph Neural Networks Under Topology-Driven Message Passing	2026-03-30	Show Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) have achieved remarkable performance on tasks involving relational data. However, small perturbations to the graph structure can significantly alter GNN outputs, raising concerns about their robustness in real-world deployments. In this work, we explore the core vulnerability of GNNs which explicitly consume graph topology in the form of the adjacency matrix or Laplacian as a means for message passing, and propose PEANUT, a simple, gradient-free, restricted black-box attack that injects virtual nodes to capitalize on this vulnerability. PEANUT is a injection based attack, which is widely considered to be more practical and realistic scenario than graph modification attacks, where the attacker is able to modify the original graph structure directly. Our method works at the inference phase, making it an evasion attack, and is applicable almost immediately, since it does not involve lengthy iterative optimizations or parameter learning, which add computational and time overhead, or training surrogate models, which are susceptible to failure due to differences in model priors and generalization capabilities. PEANUT also does not require any features on the injected node and consequently demonstrates that GNN performance can be significantly deteriorated even with injected nodes with zeros for features, highlighting the significance of effectively designed connectivity in such attacks. Extensive experiments on real-world datasets across three graph tasks demonstrate the effectiveness of our attack despite its simplicity.	This ... This work is a preprint. 8 content pages, 12 total pages including references
ORACAL: A Robust and Explainable Multimodal Framework for Smart Contract Vulnerability Detection with Causal Graph Enrichment	2026-03-30	Show Although Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) have shown promise for smart contract vulnerability detection, they still face significant limitations. Homogeneous graph models fail to capture the interplay between control flow and data dependencies, while heterogeneous graph approaches often lack deep semantic understanding, leaving them susceptible to adversarial attacks. Moreover, most black-box models fail to provide explainable evidence, hindering trust in professional audits. To address these challenges, we propose ORACAL (Observable RAG-enhanced Analysis with CausAL reasoning), a heterogeneous multimodal graph learning framework that integrates Control Flow Graph (CFG), Data Flow Graph (DFG), and Call Graph (CG). ORACAL selectively enriches critical subgraphs with expert-level security context from Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) and Large Language Models (LLMs), and employs a causal attention mechanism to disentangle true vulnerability indicators from spurious correlations. For transparency, the framework adopts PGExplainer to generate subgraph-level explanations identifying vulnerability triggering paths. Experiments on large-scale datasets demonstrate that ORACAL achieves state-of-the-art performance, outperforming MANDO-HGT, MTVHunter, GNN-SC, and SCVHunter by up to 39.6 percentage points, with a peak Macro F1 of 91.28% on the primary benchmark. ORACAL maintains strong generalization on out-of-distribution datasets with 91.8% on CGT Weakness and 77.1% on DAppScan. In explainability evaluation, PGExplainer achieves 32.51% Mean Intersection over Union (MIoU) against manually annotated vulnerability triggering paths. Under adversarial attacks, ORACAL limits performance degradation to approximately 2.35% F1 decrease with an Attack Success Rate (ASR) of only 3%, surpassing SCVHunter and MANDO-HGT which exhibit ASRs ranging from 10.91% to 18.73%.	26 pages
FedDES: Graph-Based Dynamic Ensemble Selection for Personalized Federated Learning	2026-03-30	Show Statistical heterogeneity in Federated Learning (FL) often leads to negative transfer, where a single global model fails to serve diverse client distributions. Personalized federated learning (pFL) aims to address this by tailoring models to individual clients. However, under most existing pFL approaches, clients integrate peer client contributions uniformly, which ignores the reality that not all peers are likely to be equally beneficial. Additionally, the potential for personalization at the instance level remains largely unexplored, even though the reliability of different peer models often varies across individual samples within the same client. We introduce FedDES (Federated Dynamic Ensemble Selection), a decentralized pFL framework that achieves instance-level personalization through dynamic ensemble selection. Central to our approach is a Graph Neural Network (GNN) meta-learner trained on a heterogeneous graph modeling interactions between data samples and candidate classifiers. For each test query, the GNN dynamically selects and weights peer client models, forming an ensemble of the most competent classifiers while effectively suppressing contributions from those that are irrelevant or potentially harmful for performance. Experiments on CIFAR-10 and real-world ICU healthcare data demonstrate that FedDES outperforms state-of-the-art pFL baselines in non-IID settings, offering robust protection against negative transfer.	10 pages, 2 figures
TAC: Hybrid IAM Privilege Escalation Detection	2026-03-30	Show IAM misconfigurations are a major cause of privilege escalation (PE) attacks in the cloud, leading to data breaches and major financial losses. Existing PE detectors have two main limits: they cover only some PE types, so many attacks are missed, and they require full access to cloud configurations, which customers may not want to share because of sensitive information. We present TAC, the first IAM PE detection framework that supports both whitebox and greybox analysis for Amazon Web Services (AWS). To improve coverage, we systematically study how permissions are acquired in AWS IAM and identify five PE categories. All five share one pattern: permissions spread across entities. We define this as permission flows and manually extract 219 templates from more than 14,000 AWS operations. Based on this, we build TAC-WB, a whitebox detector with broad PE coverage. We also build TAC-GB, the first greybox PE detector, which works with partial configurations. Customers can choose which entities to reveal and whether to answer questions about permissions. TAC-GB uses a dynamic query process that adapts to each response and uses reinforcement learning with graph neural networks to ask the most useful questions while reducing interaction. We also create TAC-Bench, a benchmark with 2,500 tasks reflecting real-world IAM misconfigurations. Experiments show that TAC-WB finds all PEs missed by prior tools, while TAC-GB outperforms other greybox methods and often matches whitebox methods even with limited query budgets.
GammaZero: Learning To Guide POMDP Belief Space Search With Graph Representations	2026-03-29	Show We introduce an uncertainty-aware graph representation framework for learning to guide planning in Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (POMDPs). Unlike existing approaches that require domain or problem size specific neural architectures, GammaZero leverages a unified graph-based belief representation that enables generalization across problem sizes within a domain. Our key insight is that belief states can be systematically transformed into uncertainty-aware graphs where structural patterns learned on small problems transfer to larger instances. We employ a graph neural network with a decoder architecture to learn value functions and policies from expert demonstrations on computationally tractable problems, then apply these learned heuristics to guide Monte Carlo tree search on larger problems. Experimental results on standard POMDP benchmarks demonstrate that GammaZero achieves comparable performance to BetaZero when trained and tested on the same-sized problems, while enabling zero-shot generalization to problems 2-6x larger than those seen during training.	10 pa... 10 pages content. 2 pages references. 2 pages appendix. Updated paper with more results from multiple domains and added appendix
Suppression of $^{14}\mathrm{C}$ photon hits in large liquid scintillator detectors via spatiotemporal deep learning	2026-03-29	Show Liquid scintillator detectors are widely used in neutrino experiments due to their low energy threshold and high energy resolution. Despite the tiny abundance of $^{14}$C in LS, the photons induced by the $β$ decay of the $^{14}$C isotope inevitably contaminate the signal, degrading the energy resolution. In this work, we propose three models to tag $^{14}$C photon hits in $e^+$ events with $^{14}$C pile-up, thereby suppressing its impact on the energy resolution at the hit level: a gated spatiotemporal graph neural network and two Transformer-based models with scalar and vector charge encoding. For a simulation dataset in which each event contains one $^{14}$C and one $e^+$ with kinetic energy below 5 MeV, the models achieve $^{14}$C recall rates of 25%-48% while maintaining $e^+$ to $^{14}$C misidentification below 1%, leading to a large improvement in the resolution of total charge for events where $e^+$ and $^{14}$C photon hits strongly overlap in space and time.	14 pages, 11 figures
Towards Quantifying Long-Range Interactions in Graph Machine Learning: a Large Graph Dataset and a Measurement	2026-03-28	Show Long-range dependencies are critical for effective graph representation learning, yet most existing datasets focus on small graphs tailored to inductive tasks, offering limited insight into long-range interactions. Current evaluations primarily compare models employing global attention (e.g., graph transformers) with those using local neighborhood aggregation (e.g., message-passing neural networks) without a direct measurement of long-range dependency. In this work, we introduce $\texttt{City-Networks}$, a novel large-scale transductive learning dataset derived from real-world city road networks. This dataset features graphs with over $10^5$ nodes and significantly larger diameters than those in existing benchmarks, naturally embodying long-range information. We annotate the graphs based on local node eccentricities, ensuring that the classification task inherently requires information from distant nodes. Furthermore, we propose a generic measurement based on the Jacobians of neighbors from distant hops, offering a principled quantification of long-range dependencies. Finally, we provide theoretical justifications for both our dataset design and the proposed measurement, particularly by focusing on over-smoothing and influence score dilution, which establishes a robust foundation for further exploration of long-range interactions in graph neural networks.	Publi... Published as a conference paper at ICLR 2026
A Survey of Heterogeneous Graph Neural Networks for Cybersecurity Anomaly Detection	2026-03-28	Show Anomaly detection is a critical task in cybersecurity, where identifying insider threats, access violations, and coordinated attacks is essential for ensuring system resilience. Graph-based approaches have become increasingly important for modeling entity interactions, yet most rely on homogeneous and static structures, which limits their ability to capture the heterogeneity and temporal evolution of real-world environments. Heterogeneous Graph Neural Networks (HGNNs) have emerged as a promising paradigm for anomaly detection by incorporating type-aware transformations and relation-sensitive aggregation, enabling more expressive modeling of complex cyber data. However, current research on HGNN-based anomaly detection remains fragmented, with diverse modeling strategies, limited comparative evaluation, and an absence of standardized benchmarks. To address this gap, we provide a comprehensive survey of HGNN-based anomaly detection methods in cybersecurity. We introduce a taxonomy that classifies approaches by anomaly type and graph dynamics, analyze representative models, and map them to key cybersecurity applications. We also review commonly used benchmark datasets and evaluation metrics, highlighting their strengths and limitations. Finally, we identify key open challenges related to modeling, data, and deployment, and outline promising directions for future research. This survey aims to establish a structured foundation for advancing HGNN-based anomaly detection toward scalable, interpretable, and practically deployable solutions.	23 pa... 23 pages, 7 figures, 97 references. Submitted to Journal of Computer Security (under review)
GSR-GNN: Training Acceleration and Memory-Saving Framework of Deep GNNs on Circuit Graph	2026-03-28	Show Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) show strong promise for circuit analysis, but scaling to modern large-scale circuit graphs is limited by GPU memory and training cost, especially for deep models. We revisit deep GNNs for circuit graphs and show that, when trainable, they significantly outperform shallow architectures, motivating an efficient, domain-specific training framework. We propose Grouped-Sparse-Reversible GNN (GSR-GNN), which enables training GNNs with up to hundreds of layers while reducing both compute and memory overhead. GSR-GNN integrates reversible residual modules with a group-wise sparse nonlinear operator that compresses node embeddings without sacrificing task-relevant information, and employs an optimized execution pipeline to eliminate fragmented activation storage and reduce data movement. On sampled circuit graphs, GSR-GNN achieves up to 87.2% peak memory reduction and over 30$\times$ training speedup with negligible degradation in correlation-based quality metrics, making deep GNNs practical for large-scale EDA workloads.	8 pag... 8 pages including references, already been accepted to DAC 2026
LSM-GNN: Large-scale Storage-based Multi-GPU GNN Training by Optimizing Data Transfer Scheme	2026-03-28	Show Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) are widely used today in recommendation systems, fraud detection, and node/link classification tasks. Real world GNNs continue to scale in size and require a large memory footprint for storing graphs and embeddings that often exceed the memory capacities of the target GPUs used for training. To address limited memory capacities, traditional GNN training approaches use graph partitioning and sharding techniques to scale up across multiple GPUs within a node and/or scale out across multiple nodes. However, this approach suffers from the high computational costs of graph partitioning algorithms and inefficient communication across GPUs. To address these overheads, we propose Large-scale Storage-based Multi-GPU GNN framework (LSM-GNN), a storage-based approach to train GNN models that utilizes a novel communication layer enabling GPU software caches to function as a system-wide shared cache with low overheads. LSM-GNN incorporates a hybrid eviction policy that intelligently manages cache space by using both static and dynamic node information to significantly enhance cache performance. Furthermore, we introduce the Preemptive Victim-buffer Prefetcher (PVP), a mechanism for prefetching node feature data from a Victim Buffer located in CPU pinned-memory to further reduce the pressure on the storage devices. Experimental results show that despite the lower compute capabilities and memory capacities, LSM-GNN in a single node with two GPUs offers superior performance over two-node-four-GPU Dist-DGL baseline and provides up to 3.75x speed up on end-to-end epoch time while running large-scale GNN training
Causal Graph Neural Networks for Healthcare	2026-03-27	Show Healthcare artificial intelligence systems often degrade in performance when deployed across institutions, with documented performance drops and perpetuation of discriminatory patterns embedded in data. This brittleness comes, in part, from learning statistical associations rather than causal mechanisms. Causal graph neural networks address this by combining graph-based representations of biomedical data with causal inference to learn invariant mechanisms instead of just spurious correlations. This Perspective reviews the methodology of structural causal models, disentangled causal representation learning, and techniques for interventional prediction and counterfactual reasoning on graphs. We discuss applications across psychiatric diagnosis and brain network analysis, cancer subtyping with multi-omics causal integration, continuous physiological monitoring, and drug recommendations. These methods provide building blocks for patient-specific Causal Digital Twins that could support in silico clinical experimentation. Remaining challenges include computational costs that preclude real-time deployment, validation challenges that go beyond standard cross-validation, and the risk of causal-washing where methods adopt causal terminology without rigorous evidentiary support. We propose a tiered framework distinguishing causally-inspired architectures from causally-validated discoveries and outline future directions, including scalable causal discovery, multi-modal data integration, and regulatory pathways for these methods. Making practical Causal Digital Twins possible will require an honest assessment of what current methods deliver, sustained collaboration across disciplines, and validation standards that match the strength of the causal claims being made.
Topology-Aware Graph Reinforcement Learning for Energy Storage Systems Optimal Dispatch in Distribution Networks	2026-03-27	Show Optimal dispatch of energy storage systems (ESSs) in distribution networks involves jointly improving operating economy and voltage security under time-varying conditions and possible topology changes. To support fast online decision making, we develop a topology-aware Reinforcement Learning architecture based on Twin Delayed Deep Deterministic Policy Gradient (TD3), which integrates graph neural networks (GNNs) as graph feature encoders for ESS dispatch. We conduct a systematic investigation of three GNN variants: graph convolutional networks (GCNs), topology adaptive graph convolutional networks (TAGConv), and graph attention networks (GATs) on the 34-bus and 69-bus systems, and evaluate robustness under multiple topology reconfiguration cases as well as cross-system transfer between networks with different system sizes. Results show that GNN-based controllers consistently reduce the number and magnitude of voltage violations, with clearer benefits on the 69-bus system and under reconfiguration; on the 69-bus system, TD3-GCN and TD3-TAGConv also achieve lower saved cost relative to the NLP benchmark than the NN baseline. We also highlight that transfer gains are case-dependent, and zero-shot transfer between fundamentally different systems results in notable performance degradation and increased voltage magnitude violations. This work is available at: https://github.com/ShuyiGao/GNNs_RL_ESSs and https://github.com/distributionnetworksTUDelft/GNNs_RL_ESSs.	15 pages, 10 figures
On the Complexity of Optimal Graph Rewiring for Oversmoothing and Oversquashing in Graph Neural Networks	2026-03-27	Show Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) face two fundamental challenges when scaled to deep architectures: oversmoothing, where node representations converge to indistinguishable vectors, and oversquashing, where information from distant nodes fails to propagate through bottlenecks. Both phenomena are intimately tied to the underlying graph structure, raising a natural question: can we optimize the graph topology to mitigate these issues? This paper provides a theoretical investigation of the computational complexity of such graph structure optimization. We formulate oversmoothing and oversquashing mitigation as graph optimization problems based on spectral gap and conductance, respectively. We prove that exact optimization for either problem is NP-hard through reductions from Minimum Bisection, establishing NP-completeness of the decision versions. Our results provide theoretical foundations for understanding the fundamental limits of graph rewiring for GNN optimization and justify the use of approximation algorithms and heuristic methods in practice.
Are LLM-Enhanced Graph Neural Networks Robust against Poisoning Attacks?	2026-03-27	Show Large Language Models (LLMs) have advanced Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) by enriching node representations with semantic features, giving rise to LLM-enhanced GNNs that achieve notable performance gains. However, the robustness of these models against poisoning attacks, which manipulate both graph structures and textual attributes during training, remains unexplored. To bridge this gap, we propose a robustness assessment framework that systematically evaluates LLM-enhanced GNNs under poisoning attacks. Our framework enables comprehensive evaluation across multiple dimensions. Specifically, we assess 24 victim models by combining eight LLM- or Language Model (LM)-based feature enhancers with three representative GNN backbones. To ensure diversity in attack coverage, we incorporate six structural poisoning attacks (both targeted and non-targeted) and three textual poisoning attacks operating at the character, word, and sentence levels. Furthermore, we employ four real-world datasets, including one released after the emergence of LLMs, to avoid potential ground truth leakage during LLM pretraining, thereby ensuring fair evaluation. Extensive experiments show that LLM-enhanced GNNs exhibit significantly higher accuracy and lower Relative Drop in Accuracy (RDA) than a shallow embedding-based baseline across various attack settings. Our in-depth analysis identifies key factors that contribute to this robustness, such as the effective encoding of structural and label information in node representations. Based on these insights, we outline future research directions from both offensive and defensive perspectives, and propose a new combined attack along with a graph purification defense. To support future research, we release the source code of our framework at~\url{https://github.com/CyberAlSec/LLMEGNNRP}.	To ap... To appear at 2026 IEEE Symposium on Security and Privacy (SP)
Vision Transformers and Graph Neural Networks for Charged Particle Tracking in the ATLAS Muon Spectrometer	2026-03-26	Show The identification and reconstruction of charged particles, such as muons, is a main challenge for the physics program of the ATLAS experiment at the Large Hadron Collider. This task will become increasingly difficult with the start of the High-Luminosity LHC era after 2030, when the number of proton-proton collisions per bunch crossing will increase from 60 to up to 200. This elevated interaction density will also increase the occupancy within the ATLAS Muon Spectrometer, requiring more efficient and robust real-time data processing strategies within the experiment's trigger system, particularly the Event Filter. To address these algorithmic challenges, we present two machine-learning-based approaches. First, we target the problem of background-hit rejection in the Muon Spectrometer using Graph Neural Networks integrated into the non-ML baseline reconstruction chain, demonstrating a 15 % improvement in reconstruction speed (from 255 ms to 217 ms). Second, we present a proof-of-concept for end-to-end muon tracking using state-of-the-art Vision Transformer architectures, achieving ultra-fast approximate muon reconstruction in 2.3 ms on consumer-grade GPUs at 98 % tracking efficiency.
UNIC: Neural Garment Deformation Field for Real-time Clothed Character Animation	2026-03-26	Show Simulating physically realistic garment deformations is an essential task for virtual immersive experience, which is often achieved by physics simulation methods. However, these methods are typically time-consuming, computationally demanding, and require costly hardware, which is not suitable for real-time applications. Recent learning-based methods tried to resolve this problem by training graph neural networks to learn the garment deformation on vertices, which, however, fail to capture the intricate deformation of complex garment meshes with complex topologies. In this paper, we introduce a novel neural deformation field-based method, named UNIC, to animate the garments of an avatar in real time, given the motion sequences. Our key idea is to learn the instance-specific neural deformation field to animate the garment meshes. Such an instance-specific learning scheme does not require UNIC to generalize to new garments but only to new motion sequences, which greatly reduces the difficulty in training and improves the deformation quality. Moreover, neural deformation fields map the 3D points to their deformation offsets, which not only avoids handling topologies of the complex garments but also injects a natural smoothness constraint in the deformation learning. Extensive experiments have been conducted on various kinds of garment meshes to demonstrate the effectiveness and efficiency of UNIC over baseline methods, making it potentially practical and useful in real-world interactive applications like video games.	Proje... Project page: https://igl-hkust.github.io/UNIC/
Position: Spectral GNNs Are Neither Spectral Nor Superior for Node Classification	2026-03-26	Show Spectral Graph Neural Networks (Spectral GNNs) for node classification promise frequency-domain filtering on graphs, yet rest on flawed foundations. Recent work shows that graph Laplacian eigenvectors do not in general have the key properties of a true Fourier basis, but leaves the empirical success of Spectral GNNs unexplained. We identify two theoretical glitches: (1) commonly used "graph Fourier bases" are not classical Fourier bases for graph signals; (2) (n-1)-degree polynomials (n = number of nodes) can exactly interpolate any spectral response via a Vandermonde system, so the usual "polynomial approximation" narrative is not theoretically justified. The effectiveness of GCN is commonly attributed to spectral low-pass filtering, yet we prove that low- and high-pass behaviors arise solely from message-passing dynamics rather than Graph Fourier Transform-based spectral formulations. We then analyze two representative directed spectral models, MagNet and HoloNet. Their reported effectiveness is not spectral: it arises from implementation issues that reduce them to powerful MPNNs. When implemented consistently with the claimed spectral algorithms, performance becomes weak. This position paper argues that: for node classification, Spectral GNNs neither meaningfully capture the graph spectrum nor reliably improve performance; competitive results are better explained by their equivalence to MPNNs, sometimes aided by implementations inconsistent with their intended design.
Adaptive Learned Image Compression with Graph Neural Networks	2026-03-26	Show Efficient image compression relies on modeling both local and global redundancy. Most state-of-the-art (SOTA) learned image compression (LIC) methods are based on CNNs or Transformers, which are inherently rigid. Standard CNN kernels and window-based attention mechanisms impose fixed receptive fields and static connectivity patterns, which potentially couple non-redundant pixels simply due to their proximity in Euclidean space. This rigidity limits the model's ability to adaptively capture spatially varying redundancy across the image, particularly at the global level. To overcome these limitations, we propose a content-adaptive image compression framework based on Graph Neural Networks (GNNs). Specifically, our approach constructs dual-scale graphs that enable flexible, data-driven receptive fields. Furthermore, we introduce adaptive connectivity by dynamically adjusting the number of neighbors for each node based on local content complexity. These innovations empower our Graph-based Learned Image Compression (GLIC) model to effectively model diverse redundancy patterns across images, leading to more efficient and adaptive compression. Experiments demonstrate that GLIC achieves state-of-the-art performance, achieving BD-rate reductions of 19.29%, 21.69%, and 18.71% relative to VTM-9.1 on Kodak, Tecnick, and CLIC, respectively. Code will be released at https://github.com/UnoC-727/GLIC.	Accep... Accepted by CVPR 2026
FEAST: Fully Connected Expressive Attention for Spatial Transcriptomics	2026-03-26	Show Spatial Transcriptomics (ST) provides spatially-resolved gene expression, offering crucial insights into tissue architecture and complex diseases. However, its prohibitive cost limits widespread adoption, leading to significant attention on inferring spatial gene expression from readily available whole slide images. While graph neural networks have been proposed to model interactions between tissue regions, their reliance on pre-defined sparse graphs prevents them from considering potentially interacting spot pairs, resulting in a structural limitation in capturing complex biological relationships. To address this, we propose FEAST (Fully connected Expressive Attention for Spatial Transcriptomics), an attention-based framework that models the tissue as a fully connected graph, enabling the consideration of all pairwise interactions. To better reflect biological interactions, we introduce negative-aware attention, which models both excitatory and inhibitory interactions, capturing essential negative relationships that standard attention often overlooks. Furthermore, to mitigate the information loss from truncated or ignored context in standard spot image extraction, we introduce an off-grid sampling strategy that gathers additional images from intermediate regions, allowing the model to capture a richer morphological context. Experiments on public ST datasets show that FEAST surpasses state-of-the-art methods in gene expression prediction while providing biologically plausible attention maps that clarify positive and negative interactions. Our code is available at https://github.com/starforTJ/ FEAST.
LSA: A Long-Short-term Aspect Interest Transformer for Aspect-Based Recommendation	2026-03-26	Show Aspect-based recommendation methods extract aspect terms from reviews, such as price, to model fine-grained user preferences on items, making them a critical approach in personalized recommender systems. Existing methods utilize graphs to represent the relationships among users, items, and aspect terms, modeling user preferences based on graph neural networks. However, they overlook the dynamic nature of user interests - users may temporarily focus on aspects they previously paid little attention to - making it difficult to assign accurate weights to aspect terms for each user-item interaction. In this paper, we propose a long-short-term aspect interest Transformer (LSA) for aspect-based recommendation, which effectively captures the dynamic nature of user preferences by integrating both long-term and short-term aspect interests. Specifically, the short-term interests model the temporal changes in the importance of recently interacted aspect terms, while the long-term interests consider global behavioral patterns, including aspects that users have not interacted with recently. Finally, LSA combines long- and short-term interests to evaluate the importance of aspects within the union of user and item aspect neighbors, therefore accurately assigns aspect weights for each user-item interaction. Experiments conducted on four real-world datasets demonstrate that LSA improves MSE by 2.55% on average over the best baseline.	WISE2025
Morphling: Fast, Fused, and Flexible GNN Training at Scale	2026-03-26	Show Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) present a fundamental hardware challenge by fusing irregular, memory-bound graph traversals with regular, compute-intensive dense matrix operations. While frameworks such as PyTorch Geometric (PyG) and Deep Graph Library (DGL) prioritize high-level usability, they fail to address these divergent execution characteristics. As a result, they rely on generic kernels that suffer from poor cache locality, excessive memory movement, and substantial intermediate allocations. To address these limitations, we present Morphling, a domain-specific code synthesizer designed to bridge this gap. Morphling compiles high-level GNN specifications into portable, backend-specialized implementations targeting OpenMP, CUDA, and MPI. It achieves this by instantiating a library of optimized, architecture-aware primitives tailored to each execution environment. Morphling also incorporates a runtime sparsity-aware execution engine that dynamically selects dense or sparse execution paths using input feature statistics, reducing unnecessary computation on zero-valued entries. We evaluate Morphling on eleven real-world datasets spanning diverse graph structures, feature dimensionalities, and sparsity regimes. Morphling improves per-epoch training throughput by an average of 20X on CPUs, 19X on GPUs, and 6X in distributed settings over PyG and DGL, with peak speedups reaching 66X. Morphling's memory-efficient layouts further reduce peak memory consumption by up to 15X, enabling large-scale GNN training on commodity hardware. These findings demonstrate that specialized, architecture-aware code synthesis provides an effective and scalable path toward high-performance GNN execution across diverse parallel and distributed platforms.	The a... The algorithm present in the paper is incorrect and the results are also not proper. So I want to take this down until we figure something out
Autotuning T-PaiNN: Enabling Data-Efficient GNN Interatomic Potential Development via Classical-to-Quantum Transfer Learning	2026-03-25	Show Machine-learned interatomic potentials (MLIPs), particularly graph neural network (GNN)-based models, offer a promising route to achieving near-density functional theory (DFT) accuracy at significantly reduced computational cost. However, their practical deployment is often limited by the large volumes of expensive quantum mechanical training data required. In this work, we introduce a transfer learning framework, Transfer-PaiNN (T-PaiNN), that substantially improves the data efficiency of GNN-MLIPs by leveraging inexpensive classical force field data. The approach consists of pretraining a PaiNN MLIP architecture on large-scale datasets generated from classical molecular simulations, followed by fine-tuning (dubbed autotuning) using a comparatively small DFT dataset. We demonstrate the effectiveness of autotuning T-PaiNN on both gas-phase molecular systems (QM9 dataset) and condensed-phase liquid water. Across all cases, T-PaiNN significantly outperforms models trained solely on DFT data, achieving order-of-magnitude reductions in mean absolute error while accelerating training convergence. For example, using the QM9 data set, error reductions of up to 25 times are observed in low-data regimes, while liquid water simulations show improved predictions of energies, forces, and experimentally relevant properties such as density and diffusion. These gains arise from the model's ability to learn general features of the potential energy surface from extensive classical sampling, which are subsequently refined to quantum accuracy. Overall, this work establishes transfer learning from classical force fields as a practical and computationally efficient strategy for developing high-accuracy, data-efficient GNN interatomic potentials, enabling broader application of MLIPs to complex chemical systems.	19 pages, 7 figures
Contrastive Learning Boosts Deterministic and Generative Models for Weather Data	2026-03-25	Show Weather data, comprising multiple variables, poses significant challenges due to its high dimensionality and multimodal nature. Creating low-dimensional embeddings requires compressing this data into a compact, shared latent space. This compression is required to improve the efficiency and performance of downstream tasks, such as forecasting or extreme-weather detection. Self-supervised learning, particularly contrastive learning, offers a way to generate low-dimensional, robust embeddings from unlabelled data, enabling downstream tasks when labelled data is scarce. Despite initial exploration of contrastive learning in weather data, particularly with the ERA5 dataset, the current literature does not extensively examine its benefits relative to alternative compression methods, notably autoencoders. Moreover, current work on contrastive learning does not investigate how these models can incorporate sparse data, which is more common in real-world data collection. It is critical to explore and understand how contrastive learning contributes to creating more robust embeddings for sparse weather data, thereby improving performance on downstream tasks. Our work extensively explores contrastive learning on the ERA5 dataset, aligning sparse samples with complete ones via a contrastive loss term to create SPARse-data augmented conTRAstive spatiotemporal embeddings (SPARTA). We introduce a temporally aware batch sampling strategy and a cycle-consistency loss to improve the structure of the latent space. Furthermore, we propose a novel graph neural network fusion technique to inject domain-specific physical knowledge. Ultimately, our results demonstrate that contrastive learning is a feasible and advantageous compression method for sparse geoscience data, thereby enhancing performance in downstream tasks.
CGRL: Causal-Guided Representation Learning for Graph Out-of-Distribution Generalization	2026-03-25	Show Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) have achieved impressive performance in graph-related tasks. However, they suffer from poor generalization on out-of-distribution (OOD) data, as they tend to learn spurious correlations. Such correlations present a phenomenon that GNNs fail to stably learn the mutual information between prediction representations and ground-truth labels under OOD settings. To address these challenges, we formulate a causal graph starting from the essence of node classification, adopt backdoor adjustment to block non-causal paths, and theoretically derive a lower bound for improving OOD generalization of GNNs. To materialize these insights, we further propose a novel approach integrating causal representation learning and a loss replacement strategy. The former captures node-level causal invariance and reconstructs graph posterior distribution. The latter introduces asymptotic losses of the same order to replace the original losses. Extensive experiments demonstrate the superiority of our method in OOD generalization and effectively alleviating the phenomenon of unstable mutual information learning.
Learning Mesh-Free Discrete Differential Operators with Self-Supervised Graph Neural Networks	2026-03-25	Show Mesh-free numerical methods provide flexible discretisations for complex geometries; however, classical meshless discrete differential operators typically trade low computational cost for limited accuracy or high accuracy for substantial per-stencil computation. We introduce a parametrised framework for learning mesh-free discrete differential operators using a graph neural network trained via polynomial moment constraints derived from truncated Taylor expansions. The model maps local stencils relative positions directly to discrete operator weights. The current work demonstrates that neural networks can learn classical polynomial consistency while retaining robustness to irregular neighbourhood geometry. The learned operators depend only on local geometry, are resolution-agnostic, and can be reused across particle configurations and governing equations. We evaluate the framework using standard numerical analysis diagnostics, showing improved accuracy over Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics, and a favourable accuracy-cost trade-off relative to a representative high-order consistent mesh-free method in the moderate-accuracy regime. Applicability is demonstrated by solving the weakly compressible Navier-Stokes equations using the learned operators.
How unconstrained machine-learning models learn physical symmetries	2026-03-25	Show The requirement of generating predictions that exactly fulfill the fundamental symmetry of the corresponding physical quantities has profoundly shaped the development of machine-learning models for physical simulations. In many cases, models are built using constrained mathematical forms that ensure that symmetries are enforced exactly. However, unconstrained models that do not obey rotational symmetries are often found to have competitive performance, and to be able to \emph{learn} to a high level of accuracy an approximate equivariant behavior with a simple data augmentation strategy. In this paper, we introduce rigorous metrics to measure the symmetry content of the learned representations in such models, and assess the accuracy by which the outputs fulfill the equivariant condition. We apply these metrics to two unconstrained, transformer-based models operating on decorated point clouds (a graph neural network for atomistic simulations and a PointNet-style architecture for particle physics) to investigate how symmetry information is processed across architectural layers and is learned during training. Based on these insights, we establish a rigorous framework for diagnosing spectral failure modes in ML models. Enabled by this analysis, we demonstrate that one can achieve superior stability and accuracy by strategically injecting the minimum required inductive biases, preserving the high expressivity and scalability of unconstrained architectures while guaranteeing physical fidelity.	15 pages, 9 figures
Reservoir-Based Graph Convolutional Networks	2026-03-25	Show Message passing is a core mechanism in Graph Neural Networks (GNNs), enabling the iterative update of node embeddings by aggregating information from neighboring nodes. Graph Convolutional Networks (GCNs) exemplify this approach by adapting convolutional operations for graph structures, allowing features from adjacent nodes to be combined effectively. However, GCNs encounter challenges with complex or dynamic data. Capturing long-range dependencies often requires deeper layers, which not only increase computational costs but also lead to over-smoothing, where node embeddings become indistinguishable. To overcome these challenges, reservoir computing has been integrated into GNNs, leveraging iterative message-passing dynamics for stable information propagation without extensive parameter tuning. Despite its promise, existing reservoir-based models lack structured convolutional mechanisms, limiting their ability to accurately aggregate multi-hop neighborhood information. To address these limitations, we propose RGC-Net (Reservoir-based Graph Convolutional Network), which integrates reservoir dynamics with structured graph convolution. Key contributions include: (i) a reimagined convolutional framework with fixed random reservoir weights and a leaky integrator to enhance feature retention; (ii) a robust, adaptable model for graph classification; and (iii) an RGC-Net-powered transformer for graph generation with application to dynamic brain connectivity. Extensive experiments show that RGC-Net achieves state-of-the-art performance in classification and generative tasks, including brain graph evolution, with faster convergence and reduced over-smoothing. Source code is available at https://github.com/basiralab/RGC-Net .